No comment here.
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ps. I'll be inside, working on this --- muhaha!
pps. Canadian Arctic spill goes right down to Acapulco where is feeds another micro-hurricane. These things are more 'mega tornadoes' than hurricanes. And the UK keeps changing the name of the same continuous cyclone.
more: us natgas price starting to see the cold light as they ditch nooa.
Although the popular press likes to harp on 'peak' temperatures, the mark of a horrible winter is the length, and the degree days (heating costs). They never report this.
My prediction was for snow from the end of October to the end of May. That's a long, horrible winter. I'm no longer in that business. People can cheer up thinking of fantasy El Ninos coming to rescue them, along with the dancing Jet Stream, and wonderful Polar Vortex Fairies.
I was just basing the predictions on my experience in the 70's. All our stimulus-addicted, protesting young people have no concept of that. We can buy more solar cells from China, and broken windmills from Germany. Everybody supports that position by shouting at politicians, and we know that the squeaky wheel is always correct.
Within the next week, I think that nooa will delay the coming of fantasy el nino, to Christmas, where he will compete with Santy Claus. I will sit in the comfort of the living room and bother my old dog when she wants to sleep. Let sleeping dogs wake up and play with me!
I'm still out of the weather forecast business as long as these cyclones persist. They are an entirely new thing, and I've never seen them before. When they collapse, we'll see nice, predictable Arctic spills that will freeze the Thames, and freeze my hometown of Toronto.
There is a fair amount of leakage with the Canadian stream, and it is bringing snow to S. Ontario. I'll miss my prediction of 'tree-breaking' snow for Toronto by Halloween. Missed by a few days.
You can see that the Great Lakes are protecting Toronto, and making me a loser. Without the cyclones, everything would be blue. Such are the uncertainties of a long-term forecast. Oh well, back to my projects -- my 8 year old outside video camera blew, and I could justify buying a new one -- starlight with 2K, and a web interface I can finally access.
All poots wanted to do was take Uk down a notch, so it didn't make him look so bad. They were prosperous and happy, with a democracy, and leaning towards nato. He thought he could take it in a day or two. Now, he's probably killed all those generals who promised this.
It's going into a new phase, that of training soldiers and making new weapons. He is happy, and even if he dies, it will be the same. There is no concept of 'being too expensive'. That has no meaning with a tyrant. Every day, the ruskies get better with drones and they have lots of people to shove into the meat grinder.
His big problem is that anybody with intelligence above a dim bulb is leaving. But that's only long term.
I see this war going on forever, even if poots retreats to his own borders. There is no concept of folding the cards, and giving up.
Ukraine will become a permanent Gaza for poots to test new weapons. The west will bring in lots of weapons, but nobody is going to invade the ruskies. However, this is all good for the west to handle china, who will want to do the same thing with taiwan. blah.
ps. and the west has a deep inherent tribalism, which is the same as racism. We only attach to people like us. Ukraine will drift, under permanent war, and the west will detach. Sad.
Our permanent cyclones have a new name in the media - zombie storms. In this case, the storm weakened and then strengthened. However, it is still a cold-fed cyclone.
Since all of this is entirely new, I have no idea when they will die. A month ago, they all went back to the grave, and then we had straight Arctic spills.
Here, we are having a 'partial' spill, just touching Texas. Most of the spill is still getting sucked up by a zombie storm.
If that zombie storm off the UK finally rots away, then the tabloids may be right for once.
I'm only writing happy things now, none of that doom and gloom cold that is about to hit Toronto. But the UK is always fair game.
You can see that the warm Atlantic plumes are the 'old boyfriend' in the movie, and the cold is hanging around.
But the new boyfriend is a permanent cyclone. As usual, the UK has no idea that she is in love...
That's because her best friend - the yellow news, won't tell her the truth. Everybody just stands around, saying 'What's happening?'. It's a great movie, and they get to kiss in the end on the frozen Thames...
ps. put away the lawnmower and got the snowblower ready.
The two people who read me know that I have embarked on a new career of 'Arch Vil'. I shall name myself the Furmenator, because of the dog. All will cower before me!
My secret secret has arrived and I have opened it. I don't have a clue what to do, but soon I will. It should keep me occupied for months before I throw it down in disgust. And, then, on to the next project!
** I keep using code words so the Guardians of the Universe can't find me...
ps. the motto on the box is 'Flip the World' -- muhaha!
pps. my minions aren't very bright. The AI is fixated that the fire hydrant is about to attack the lair, and the dog is the dog. I feel like old poots with his yes-generals, and trumpy with his yes-lawyers. You had one job! -- Take over the world! I feel like I'm surrounded by idiots!
Ocean currents - Oct 26 -- This has nothing to do with the weather forecast.
Disorganized flow, but a thin return from our little el nino, out in the west Pacific
You can see the remnants of "The great red spot". It's bleeding away at the top.
The classic math construct has chopped down to half of what they show on the media.
The Gulf Stream looks really sad and pathetic. I have old videos when it had some strength.
ps. it is the popular opinion that ocean currents have nothing to do with the weather.
As I enter my super-secret project, I have decided to put up an appearance of normality. Let the weather do its thing. Really cold, or really warm, who cares? I'm just going with the popular opinion.
Germany is having fun with windmills, and everybody enjoys exploding electric cars. The El Nino picture is as strong as ever, although getting a bit raggy. In Toronto, we are enjoying the remnants of that hurricane, and there won't be a big snowstorm while the leaves are out.
Physics remains an obscure sport, and I'm fine with that. Hindsight explanations for everything will continue for the foreseeable warm future.
Nothing to see here, no man behind the curtain, enjoy the Christmas season.
ps OMG, I forgot to place the special order! I was looking forward to going into my deep, dark lair, with my minion dog.
Oooh, somebody is going to get a dang FLIPPERZERO for Christmas, or maybe tomorrow. I mastered Unix, then Linux, and made raspi earthquake sensors. I did that horrible video camera stuff.
Now, what I am going to do today? Take over the world. Don't worry, dear reader or two, I have never finished anything. My brain gets over the big challenge, and then it's all downhill, and my brain says 'Anybody could do that -- meh'
But FLIPPER - freaking - ZERO, I can be relevant again. I couldn't stand all that AI stuff, just a trick, but this is HOT HOT HOT. Garage door opening? Put it on my drone, and open the whole city! And those nasty EV cars? Program them with the voice of a demented parrot -- Ha!
I can get those weather balloons to tell the real story. You can mount it with a big steel structure, and take down the Space Shuttle - - oops that blew up ages ago. Never mind my senility, I'm super-cool and popular! My influencer show starts in a week - maybe.
The cold air comes down on us. It's a slow air glacier. A very heavy Arctic spill, but diverted to the east. It should stick around for a while, once it arrives.
The UK still has cyclones.
All the doomers have gone to Antarctica.
And yet the temperatures are the same as they've always been. There is no melting, ice sheets surge and shrink according to their own schedule.
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The Arctic air is amazingly still tied up in the big stationary cyclone. However, it is starting to leak. A small stream is breaking off and heading down to Texas. It's nothing compared to the big stream, should it also break away.
That's the fun of looking at weather with physics. All the air systems are billiard balls rolling around on the earth. This new phenomenon of stationary cyclones has missed the weather people entirely.
A new ocean current map is out.
There is a new big flow at the beginning.
I am amazed at how the Atlantic belt has died.
The phoney anomaly (Ghost El Nino) is static.
Maybe shrinking, who cares?
I always enjoy this. The 'very high temperatures' are only 20C, high on top of the usual deep 4C, that the current used to pull up. Now, they are saying that carbon warming is causing the El Nino.
The big issue is that on the day after Halloween, the ghost El Nino will continue to shrink. They are using the picture from when it was at the maximum. Nooa will then shift the date to December, and then Christmas, and a Happy EN Newyear. It will never come, and they will rewrite history. That's why I write, so there is history 20 years from now, in the middle of our severe ice cycle. Of course, the influencers and anxiety merchants will move on to the next doomer story.
ps. and now the Polar Vortex Fairies are active. In reality, the polar vortex is a wisp of near-vacuum, and cannot bother us.
The Arctic ice is enjoying this winter.
ps. the huge Arctic blob is still hung up on a stationary cyclone. Those 'permanent' cyclones are the big thing this year. The physics is fantastic for these things, and they're all over the place.
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Although it looks like it is starting it's March to Texas, it is still tied up in a vortex. That's why the warm plume from the Gulf looks like it is holding up against it.
It should release soon, becoming a straight flow of Arctic air.
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It's all very interesting physics.
ps. wow, that was a heavy frost in Toronto!
pps. Oct 24, it is still hung up on a stationary cyclone.
The Mama Grizzly Arctic air blob is coming down to open the season. She is just the first. Right now, all the spillways for the cold are blocked by cyclones, except for Canada.
This is a huge mama!
It has the nice curved front of an air glacier. For Toronto, the lakes will protect us to some extent.
It is just appearing on the regular 7 day forecast.
ps. the mechanism is interesting. These things start as a chaotic cyclone, then the cold bottom sags and detaches, making a stream. The size of the stream is related to the size of the cyclone, and geographic features.
I'll put this down for history. It's took all my 2-hour morning brain power for weeks. At the end, it can recognize the dog.
You need a mini-pc from ammie. I just got a commodity amd box. I use them all over the house now. Comes with a 250gb ssd, and a hunk of memory. I install standard Debian Sid on it.
Then, a huge effort to install Docker and Portainer.
Eventually, my reading list was dozens of articles. All showing their recipes, all wrong to some degree. You have to combine them in your brain.
That's just the first part. Then you need a Frigate configuration file.
Because the mini-pc doesn't have much storage, you have to mount an smb file to your main disks for storage. The database stays on the mini pc.
The last few days are spent debugging the config file. It is written in yaml, which is like python, in that every space is important.
In the end, it works great. You get to fool around with an AI card, and it's all private.
ps. you also need that Coral USB which you can also get at ammie. I am using an old no-name Chinese starlight camera, powered by usb. It's been there for 6 years, and I still can't find anything better.
pps. it's absolutely in love with the fire hydrant as a person. I may have to go to zones next.
This isn't on the regular forecast yet.
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Right now, Toronto is being hit by the remnants of the clipper. A day of cold, then warmth. Sneaking right behind it is a cold monster.
The Alaska spillway is tied up with a permanent cyclone, and Greenland has many such things. That just leaves a spillway through the Yukon.
ps. you can see the icy fingers on this map
Just in case you don't think it is important to have a good long-term weather forecast, we look at this.
This puts natgas at the bottom.
This is for the US, not Canada.
Thus we have the rosy influencer forecast, that has tons of heat energy pouring from El Nino, and making us warm. I am so dumbfounded by this, that I have no comment.
Just for interest, and having nothing to do with a forecast, I am showing how a classic clipper first gives Toronto cold, and then warmth. We are so close to a snowstorm, but we won't have one. The good news is that the Pacific air is coming over the mountains and that should be nice late October weather.
The incursion of warm plumes has us back into the big cyclone mess we had earlier. Once again, this will run out of steam, and the Arctic spills will start up again, while we wait for the Coming of El Nino.
**for those who want things straight, EN is not coming to save us, and we are only get sporadic bursts of warm plumes. Enjoy the warmth while you can.
We had fun with a big temperature spike. A narrow spike has no energy, and drops as fast as it rose. Lots of press with that. This was caused by the Big Red Spot in the Pacific Ocean, and that is fading away like a treated zit. That was one of the smallest localized heating events since 2016. There have been a lot of them and the total world effect is dependent on their surface area.
I have a mechanism for them, but, as usual, it is a hypothesis that needs actual physics measurements. Nothing of that sort expected in the future, as long as the story-tellers dominate. Who needs physics, when they have a cool, hindsight explanation for everything.
I enjoy reading this sort of thing, where people come up with a 'solution' with no physics at all. Just throw money at them, they have a good story.
And we are getting more articles on this, as it is becoming popular with the cold coming down on us. It was big in the 70's, with lots of physics, and then it stopped. These new articles just 'explain' with no meat. The standard way to do 'science' now is to make an observation, then explain, and linearly extrapolate. This was the way with Aristotle, and the Church before the Reformation. I admit that I am stuck in the 70's, when we have such great things as social media these days. :(
This is a neat configuration.
Some hot plumes have snuck in and blocked the two spillways. In Toronto, we are getting a full NW clipper. Everything is a bit of a mess right now, and it might reset to a new pattern.
ps. the clipper is putting things down to freezing. That's enough for my 'predicted' big snowstorm, but we need a Gulf plume for the collision. Nevertheless, it is winter in October.
This is a personal Linux journey of discovery. Man, it was tough, but you can soldier through.
I have to optimize it. It uses the Coral AI chip, and can recognize objects. So neat, I always want to play with AI. However, I think it views the fire hydrant as a person. Perhaps it will ask it out for a date.
I'm using a separate mini-computer.
Once again, we have a lot of cyclones sucking up the Arctic spills. These things usually last for a week or two, probably ruining my prediction for a big snowstorm in Toronto, in October. Another failure for me.
What happens is that a tropical plume tries to penetrate Arctic airspace and gets caught up in a cyclone. These cyclone frenzies will last for a shorter and shorter time, as the ocean belts run out of heat.
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I apologize to everybody who was expecting snow to destroy the trees. :) The snow will just have to move to November, after the leaves have fallen.
ps. I was expecting August weather when narrow cold plumes came down and hit the warm air from the Gulf, right over Toronto. Now, we have strong cold blobs that are wiping out all the warm air, and we are living with lake-moderated cold weather.
pps. not doing the state of the oceans today, since everything is exactly the same, and I don't like making fun of the groupthink. They are still going on and on about it.
El Nino is now expected to start in November. Some new songs have been written.
Tomorrow! Tomorrow! El Nino's tomorrow,
It's always a month away.
Now, Annie is happy chasing the pot, but the Beagles have written a tragic song:
Imagine all the people,
Waiting for the warmth - Oooh, hooo, oooh, cough, cough, hack, hack - damn it's cold.
Meanwhile, thousands of articles have been written on an El Nino winter. Next month, they all have to go into the AI compost bin.
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The narrow Arctic spills are being spread by cyclonic action. We can see here the cold blob descending all the way to Texas, and beyond.
The warm plume to Europe has been fought off by the cold blob. Maybe Spain gets the benefit.
The very weird surface air chart is settling back, after we had the effects of 'The Great Red Spot'. I find this chart weird because it should not have a northern hemi seasonal signature.
ps. although I thought nooa had given up on El Nino, they are just shoving it back month by month, now it is November.
We don't have any seismic location resolution here, but if we did, it would be along that fault. These are all thrust earthquakes, and it is much like Turkey.
Whenever you see a big gash like that, it is an active fault. If you had gps around the area, it would be as always -- the highlands go up , and the lowlands go down. For any given area, the odds of this size of earthquake activity is one in 500 years, but the earthquakes go up and down the fault. That is why everybody just stacks up rocks for houses. I also suspect this is a 'blind thrust' earthquake, so that the Peak Ground Velocity is very high, to the point that even building with concrete and rebar would be inadequate.
We have our pattern for the winter. A small Arctic spill by Alaska, and two big ones on either side of Greenland.
Last year, there was a huge spill through Siberia. The Greenland spillway was cut off, due to the Gulf Stream wobbling up some heat in the Greenland gap. That is wide-open now, and the UK will have fun with that. We may not have 'cold air blobs' coming down the middle of Canada, like we had all summer.
I don't see anything coming that will disrupt the pattern. Toronto should finally hit 30 below for weeks, and Huntsville 40 below. Europe should have long periods at 20 below.
This is the winter of my youth. I always went winter camping at 40 below.
ps. the big driver for all this is 'stagnant air'. That causes extreme heat and cold, like a northern desert. Our influencers are very good at exploiting this, by just concentrating on the heat, but the cold kills more.
All warmth for Europe comes from these plumes, cast off from the equatorial belt. Without them, everything would be a cold desert. We can see the cold air is blocking the plume, and there will be a fight. Perhaps Spain will get more rain, on the plain.
I don't talk about other countries, they can freeze in total ignorance of what is happening. I see all this as a pattern for the winter. The Dutch can skate the canals, the Scandinavians will use blue wax for their skis. Everything is wonderful.
Since I now only have one reader, I will just concentrate on Northern Spain. Everybody else can rot in fantasy.
Nobody would believe the energy required to spin a gyre. This goes against the famous 'bathtub rule' of only counter-clockwise in the north. That's because a normal storm is self-sustaining as long as there is warmth feeding it. That warmth can come from hot water, or a gentle warm input.
A gyre with a frosty filling needs violence. That's equivalent to spinning your finger clockwise as the bathtub drains (this is a fantasy myth). Only lasts as long as you spin. For this case in the real world, we have a hugely powerful Arctic spill, giving the UK the what-for.
Giving rise to a new poem:
If I cared about BC (no readers there), then I would note that a lot of air is coming through Bering Str. But that is choked, and Greenland may be at capacity, which leaves cold air for the nogoodnicks in Toronto. (Everybody hates Toronto)
The good news for me is that I have found the cause of the weird world temperature spike. I thought it was all the cyclones, but it is a micro heating event in the Pacific. Normally, I would call this a half-ass El Nino, but it is smaller than that.
This one shows up in both the phony plot and the real one. You can see that the nooa appendage has leprosy, and is about to fall off (upper anomaly plot).
The real map shows it as a Jupiter Red Spot, while the rest of the Pacific gets colder and colder.
My new hypothesis is that clear side-bands absorb the heat, and convection brings it to the belt, where it is force to speed up, due to angular momentum, and confinement (confinement like my pressure washer).
That little spark of heat is gone now, which always happens when I discover one of these.
Anyway, this is all for Spain, and all the others in the world can piss off. :)
ps. nooa is really weakening the El Nino prediction. Used to be 90% for September, now 80% for March. By March, it will be zero, since it doesn't exist.
pps - and Australia better have good spillways for the dams.
But they don't read me -- so, how long can you tread water?
pps. Wayne has checked in, so it's 2 readers, and I'll do Toronto.
