They are preparing for when there is no El Nino, and they will say it is a La Nina caused by clange. But a continuous La Nina is no La Nina. That's why they had to put in an interlude of a phoney El Nino caused by bad charts. Everything will be fine now. Can't wait when the Thames freezes over, and it's all due to global warming.
This is a fun 'war of the charts'. The washpost shows a lot of the charts all showing severe red, and I show charts of cold. That's because the baseline charts were done in our cold 70-90's era. Our 'hockey stick' developed up to 2016, and then the temps went down. The base is somewhere near 10C, and this cold ocean is about 15C. Luckily for us, the west Pacific is near 30C. (Tahiti trip coming)
That cold water near San Francisco is about 10C, and you can't dip your toe into it. That cold water is now reaching the equator from the south. It doesn't bother the media to use totally false charts.
The MIMIC shows a huge Arctic blob hitting us. We were freezing, and had a fire in the cottage, in July, for the first time i can remember. Of course, all you can read about is heat waves.
ps. yeah, it's sunny, cool weather for a couple of days.
I'm up at the cottage, and I've caught an Internet wave. They are few and far between, but now, the internet is good.
The ocean current in the Pacific is less coherent than before, but the current is now pulling right from the shore. This stops the phoney anomaly, which is set by major current pulls of the past. That brings up very cold water from the depths. Now, the anomaly is shrinking, and they have nothing to show to 'prove' El Nino. When that anomaly sucks right in like a man in cold water, we might be able to declare the end of it. Most likely, they just won't show the chart, and just lip-flap it to life, like Elvis.
The MIMIC which is too large to upload shows a monster Arctic blob coming down on us.
ps.
We get our nice 3 days of heat, with lots of rain. Went fishing with 'The world's worst fishing dog.' and got lots of nibbles. I put on a large hook, since I don't want to do any work.
The US midwest is finally getting heat, and it's all over the media. However, a large Arctic blob is working its way down.
Everybody in Toronto should turn on the fire hydrants, and go about near-naked. We might get in the guard! This could be our last warm weather because another blob is coming down.
We have the only heat action in the world right now. Europe has cleared.
They are getting the exact action that I have predicted, howling Arctic winds through the Greenland Gap. In the winter, this is the action that will freeze the Thames, if the sorry ditch can be frozen.
Those poor guys still have the same headlines - that one day the heat will come. But nah nah, we in Toronto stole it!
ps. and LaGore is busy making money on loser projects.
They have abandoned '600 times more likely' because of the simple math inversion that makes them look silly. Now it's 'impossible' because that has no numbers.
We are still in for some warm weather now and then, and I appreciate it at the cottage, as long as we have rain at night. All the big 'newsworthy' heatwaves are gone, and it will be tough picking for the influencers. However, they've got enough to keep going until next summer. Any sign of cold will be ignored.
I don't want to be right about the stillborn El Nino, or the Thames freezing over. I want to be as wrong as these guys. They have Oz burning, and I say 'total sog'. Hopefully, nobody is right. I don't have any money in Ozzie Umbrellas, but these guys have lots of money in lithium batteries. They live for money.
It's silly to build these things as we enter an ice cycle. You can have the blades dripping with ice as a huge storm hits them. However, the cancellations have nothing to do with reality. There is just no money in the world, as we head towards a recession, and we have squandered all the money on Chinese solar panels that are gathering dust in warehouses.
(every solar panel promotes slavery, and cuts off food production)
Since basic physics was thrown out the window the last 40 years or so, it is difficult to find philosophical solutions to a philosophical problem. Windmills never turn when you are in a stagnant heat wave -- I go by a big wind farm all the time to the cottage -- they never turn!
Offshore is worse, because the towers are subject to exponential wind loads, and the maintenance becomes really difficult. But, the money must be spent, and the influencers must get rich...
Note that on the above picture, the solar panels must steal from Peter to pay Paul. The land is dead underneath them.
ps. this is funny -- in order to survive typhoons, these things are in the Taiwan Str. and pack enough sensors to be a military threat...
Yeah, this is back in the news again. We have endless battery news, and where are we? Batteries need ions to move, and anodes to swell, so they will always be slow. SC's just have electrons and can be charged in an instant. However, both are improving at the pace of a snail up a tree.
When this whole carbon warming thing goes the way of phrenology, then we will go with methanol fuel cells and sc's as boosters, like a hybrid car. This will make everybody happy. We know that batteries will destroy our grid system, and we have the total energy of our pipeline system. Don't invest in solar cells, or giant battery plants.
SC's and methanol can use our existing systems. The only thing stopping it is the whole carbon thing. Maybe three years of extreme cold before we storm the ramparts of the influencers. Maybe not.
Last week we had a piece of the belt flowing at high speeds in a small section. You can look it up, if you want to. This week it has broken up. For most of the year, it has broken up into little convection cells.
They just define El Nino by atmospheric conditions, but it is really defined by the current flow. Unfortunately, that is beyond the remit of weather people. Ocean current people do not exist.
Something wonderful happens when the current is strong and massive. First of all, that's a huge amount of energy. Second, the world temperatures always bump up in relation to the size of the coherent flow. A super El Nino like the 2016 has the full belt in a strong reverse current. It gave us the huge bump that shall be known as the 'hockey stick'. It gave rise to a social movement so strong that it shall never die, no matter what the world temperature does.
Looking at the MIMIC on top of these current flows, I had thought it opened up for a strong influx of solar heat. But the solar flux is evenly distributed, so that is not enough energy to affect the world.
Now, I don't know what the heck to think. All I want are more measurements. I am now inclined to think it is a huge 'burp' of heat energy coming from the ocean, but I would expect lots of ocean plumes, and that doesn't happen. So, I am in a funk.
ps. as well, the current patch may be a co-symptom of a big heat release, that is only measured by the world temps. However, if I were investigating, then I would go with a simpler hypothesis, and let it die on the wayside, towards a true theory.
pps. ah, it could be a giant convection cell, that makes sense. The deeper it goes, the more heat energy it dredges up. However, no atmosphere plumes, so the heat rains out and goes very high... maybe. Lots of physics could be done.
And she shouts "I'm melting!" That's our Wicked Witch of the El Nino.
The patch is much weaker now, but the important part is that it is not growing. That will give us a tiny hump in the world temperature plot, and will be hardly noticeable.
The world heat anomaly at 2m shows nothing. The guard has to chase rainbows. It's the end of summer in Toronto, but I had a nice sleep at the cottage tin shed. No fish, though.
I wonder how they will call the death of El Nino? I suspect it will be like the death of a tyrant, where they keep trying to say he's alive, to stop the purge.
ps
Ode to Influencers
El Nino has not come knock-knock-knocking on my door,
Somehow, I was expecting a little bit more,
Influencers tell me what to think,
But, I'm beginning to know, that their hot air will flow,
It won't keep me warm at the hockey rink.
When everybody was looking to hydrogen as natural gas, I just said it has no physics. We had lots of explosions at the hydrogen station at the nuclear plants. It's very aggressive on seals and lubrication, and leaks like someone with too much beer. It makes propane cars look safe.
Neat, the cottage Internet is on the blink again, and we are a gloomy day with sun showers every 5 minutes. The wind has become from the North, and it is getting cold. Should go down to 10C tonight. I'm happy for all those getting a heat wave. Must be nice.
The chart shows a huge cold Arctic blob coming down on us. Maybe the fire will get going for the first time ever in July. I'm just thinking that we people in Toronto got excommunicated from the Church of Clange.
Now we finally have nice weather. June was hot and smoky, and the beginning of July was too hot. It's nice now, with sun and thunder storms forming around us. I am enjoying my new Chromebook, which has a keyboard and nice screen. Wife thinks it is too large, but it's great for the cottage.
The bandwidth is horrible here, and I'm waiting for a picture, but it takes forever.
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It continues. The Summer of Blobs. Europe is getting a tiny bit of Atlantic action. Meanwhile, we are doomed --
And I love his version of the global temperature chart.
Wow, I'm a total believer!
As we recall, there are little camel humps on the world temperature chart, since the big hump of 2016. In every case, I found unusual sections of the Pacific Belt that were associated with them. My hypothesis is that a special mechanism appears that produces enough heat energy to bump the chart.
This is an interesting hypothesis that can only be addressed by actual physics measurements. Unfortunately, the big powers do not fund this, because even a tiny bit of measured physics will blow the whole 'carbon warming' thing to shreds.
You can see a patch of coherent, high flow. There is a great mechanism in here somewhere, and the same thing has caused all the other humps. The size of the hump is directly proportional to the length of the coherent flow. Like energy and earthquakes.
Inside the flow, there are pockets of heat, and maybe, tiny vortexes. The hypothesis can be extended to assume that this opens up the ocean to direct rays from the Sun. All of this could be measured by balloons and drones. Not going to happen. After what happened to them with the Freon thing, they will ensure that not a penny goes to the Scientific Method. It cannot be controlled by political forces.
Anyway, the pattern is for these little humps to get smaller and smaller, as the world temperatures go down. All the little Death Valleys of stagnant air can't change this, but they make for good news stories.
Don't forget that even the blue zones can be quite warm in the summer, but it's still below normal.
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ps. I didn't say anything, but I'm waiting for 'It's all clange.' Amazing how everybody accepts this like, 'God is punishing you.', and nobody wants to go for the exact mechanism.
I got a T95z android box for the bedroom tv. I mounted the old plasma tv for sleeping to Hallmark movies. Puts you into a nice sleep because there are no complex plots to unravel as you fall asleep. If I get into a 'rewrite' of a movie, then I have to take a wheelbarrow of pills to knock me out. There is only one plot for all Hallmark movies. :)
We've been getting power zaps all summer with this horrible weather. I protect every electronic device, but sometimes things get through, especially a short power blink. The tv box was stuck on the boot screen, and this seems to be a common problem.
The button is hiding in the bottom of the AV hole, whatever that's for. You just put in a small screwdriver and press the button. I just pressed it once and plugged it in, and it worked. Sometimes you have to press 3 times as you power up to get the Android control screen. Neat.
The cold can't get over the Rockies, so California remains clear.
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Just a tiny sliver of European heat remains for the media.
The remaining hot areas have stagnant air.
ps. the Arctic blobs can't touch the far NA west.
At least the BBC is asking the question that evades influencers....
The influencers are still sticking in their thumbs and pulling out a plumb of rare heat waves.
They are going on about the US south, but it is cooler than normal. You should visit during a 'real heat wave'. They just go from their air conditioned houses, straight to the air conditioned car, and into the garage of the air conditioned work. Of course, nobody goes to work any more, so that's simple.
A big blob is shooting out from that 'never ending swirl'. It is powered by cold, not heat, actually the energetic heat meeting a huge sink.
It seems to be forming a post-2016 hump like the ones before. In all those cases, I found a sign of extra heat energy being poured out on the Pacific equatorial belt. I can't find anything right now, so the pendulum may be swinging to the fantasy side of 'more heat', rather than my gloomy physics side of 'no heat'.
However, it doesn't have that broader approach like 1997 and 2016. I'll just hope for more warmth in the fall. If you just plot the months of June, it is quite a spike, which will make their report look good.
This bit of heat may have come from the Atlantic belt, but there are no measurements. Why fund physics, when you are absolutely sure of yourself? I still go with my hypothesis that we are cruising along the top of the long cycle, and change is very slow.
ps. ok, they went with 'Hottest June Ever', and all the influencers are piling in the money.
because the weird monthly plot is so spiky, if it was the 'coldest June ever' then they wouldn't have mentioned it.
I just think that if the influencers want to tout a heat wave, they better be fast. Hot spots come and go quickly in this weather. Enjoy the heat, not going to be there tomorrow.
The horror of a Bruce C has got me back into earthquakes. I think of my favourite line in the BCC Pride&P. "Not Bruce C, my dear, the foundations are terrible!"
It funny that I did once meet some bright earthquake engineers in California. They were building the giant, useless, campuses of the Big Tech companies. Now, those things can be warehouses. Anyway, they knew the importance of deep foundations and building stiffness.
Conventional earthquake engineering of the type you'll see in the East, relies on a shake table, which has no association with physics. It is 'tradition' and 'conservative', just like the misleading jargon of weather people. I moved on from earthquakes to long-term weather forecasts, as they are both the same, deep down.
All of earthquake engineering should be about energy, but it is all about peak acceleration, because that was the easiest thing to measure in the old days. It is stuck in a rut, much like 'high and low pressure' and 'Jet Stream'. For weather, it is stuck in what could be measured for D-day, and with earthquakes, what could be measured for the San Fernando earthquake.
Very few earthquakes damage buildings through resonance only, but we are stuck with that. That's why we have horrible constructions such as 'response spectra'. Just like weather people, earthquake engineers want to maintain a 'priesthood' of obscure jargon. This has led to huge mistakes which, for weather, can be cured by a powerful ice cycle, and an earthquake under the best that earthquake engineers can offer.
Although I have written about this many times before, I have new insights into groupthink, and how it maintains itself. As usual, I will be called a 'complete idiot'.
-- to be continued
ps. I decided that I don't have new insights, and I swore to let the BruceC beast go. No continuation.
The Arctic ocean is a giant basin surrounded mostly by mountains.
When the ocean plumes die, due to a lack of Equatorial Belt heat energy, the Arctic becomes a giant bowl of cold jelly. The air has fantastic properties of increased density, which gives it some properties, like sloppy jelly.
We have 4 possible spillways if this jelly decides it needs to move, and it will. There is a fine gravitational pull to the equator, due to the Earth's spin. The whole planet bulges at the equatorial belt.
From historical records of the Little Ice Age, we know that extreme winters only happened every other year or so. The last winter, the Gulf Stream plugged up the Greenland spillway with warm water, which is equivalent to a mountain range. We had a continuous spill through the Siberian lowlands, and through Asia. Also, a smaller spill through the Bering Straight.
This caused the California Winter of Rain. Endless storms spun out from the cold plume, and I wrote about it. Now, we are experiencing constant flow through Canada, and the Greenland gap.
That's happening all the time now. In Europe, it is the same thing.
That means both spillways are open, and they are forming the trench through which it will spill in the winter. In Toronto, we have reached the End of Summer, and Europe has 'flash heatwaves' which cause great Influencer activity.
I'm not going to predict the obvious here, because it is irrelevant. What use is a prediction shouted in the wilderness? The Great AI Scrape has stopped for my blog and I'm down to the miserable numbers that tikkytokkers are happy with. There is no danger of me contesting the groupthink.
If, however, you have an ounce of independence in your brain, then lay in some extra firewood....
There is a bit of a rise at the end, but May and June are flat. This chart is only done every 2 months, but it is always informative. The tropics seem to be driving the rise, but everything is unsettled. This plot is in the historic format of the original 'hockey stick'. nooa has changed to a 'same month' plot which is silly.
The last few years have been sinking, and I expect we'll get back to 1980 in another couple of years. I suspect that no matter how cold the charts appear, it will always be 'Hot Fudge' with Influencer Science.
ps. the only major build-up of heat is in the West Pacific. I don't think it is much hotter than usual, but it's hard to tell.
The other reality, the world ocean temp anomaly map shows the static heat in the East Pacific. Pick your poison.
