Last week we had a piece of the belt flowing at high speeds in a small section. You can look it up, if you want to. This week it has broken up. For most of the year, it has broken up into little convection cells.
They just define El Nino by atmospheric conditions, but it is really defined by the current flow. Unfortunately, that is beyond the remit of weather people. Ocean current people do not exist.
Something wonderful happens when the current is strong and massive. First of all, that's a huge amount of energy. Second, the world temperatures always bump up in relation to the size of the coherent flow. A super El Nino like the 2016 has the full belt in a strong reverse current. It gave us the huge bump that shall be known as the 'hockey stick'. It gave rise to a social movement so strong that it shall never die, no matter what the world temperature does.
Looking at the MIMIC on top of these current flows, I had thought it opened up for a strong influx of solar heat. But the solar flux is evenly distributed, so that is not enough energy to affect the world.
Now, I don't know what the heck to think. All I want are more measurements. I am now inclined to think it is a huge 'burp' of heat energy coming from the ocean, but I would expect lots of ocean plumes, and that doesn't happen. So, I am in a funk.
ps. as well, the current patch may be a co-symptom of a big heat release, that is only measured by the world temps. However, if I were investigating, then I would go with a simpler hypothesis, and let it die on the wayside, towards a true theory.
pps. ah, it could be a giant convection cell, that makes sense. The deeper it goes, the more heat energy it dredges up. However, no atmosphere plumes, so the heat rains out and goes very high... maybe. Lots of physics could be done.
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