Scientific Method

 After days of moping, I have finally figured out a response to my brow-beating on Mastodon.

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@hasmis@qoto.org

#physics #weather Scientific Method  OK, a major disagreement on the philosophy of the SM.  It is my understanding that the SM requires a fixed hypothesis, that follows the current thinking and all laws of physics.

  You cast that hypothesis, like plate tectonics, and you wait for further data.  The hypothesis stands or falls.  The late J. Tuzo Wilson was a consultant to us, and he regaled us with stories of his constantly failing hypotheses.  He enjoyed the process of failure, and then he got things right.

  I have cast the hypothesis that ocean currents and convection dominate the weather, and I am waiting for it to fail.  Then I will do another one.  No sweat. No money involved, No personal glory.

  The hypothesis is measured by the official world temperatures as determined by satellite.  This has been a constant method since 1980.  The world temperatures on these charts is going down.  

  I throw down the glove and wait.  Many political organizations cannot take a failure of their position, and there are trillions of dollars at stake.  I have nothing at stake.

  There are other positions that are not SM.  That is the ‘Discovery Method’ of adjusting explanations as new things are discovered.  I have found it is good entertainment, but not useful.

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There is no response, and I really didn't realize how everybody has rejected the SM.  I am the only person in the world who supports it.  I'll go down with this ship, and let everybody have their party-hearty.  

ps. as an example, the DM people put out a lot of doomer predictions for click-bait and then forget them when they don't happen.  They have said that La Nina is dead and El Nino is coming soon.  This won't happen, and it will be forgotten, or passed off with an explanation that it is due to the Antarctic ice melting.  This is acceptable to most of the world.

pps.  this new thing about 'rewriting history' is what dooms the SM.  The old problem of 'making things up as you go along' was that the 'model' became extremely complex.  We had the 'clockwork universe' which justified the thought that the Earth was the centre of the universe.  Every new 'planet retrograde' had to be incorporated as new gears.  People dropped it.  However, now we can 'reboot' all the previous assumptions by dropping them.  I am always amazed.

Alternating cold and hot days for Toronto

 I'm giving up on the world weather, and just concentrating locally.  This is just weather, and has nothing to do with 'climate'.

The cold blobs and the Gulf plumes are fighting each other.  Right now, the boundary is below Toronto, but it is going up and down.  We'll be in this pattern for at least 2 weeks, because everything looks steady in the Pacific.  Our true spring starts when the Pacific breezes go straight east and blow away the cold blobs.  

Cold blob hits Toronto

 

As the sun gets stronger in the N.Hemi we see these things hitting us with a shorter duration.  However, lots of snow at the boundaries.

ps. nice storm.

Ocean currents -- March 28, 2023

 This is the ocean current chart, coming out every 5 days.

I am subdued, so I'll just show them, without my usual snark.  This is the cold feed to the Pacific belt.  I detect no change, whatsoever.

This is the Caribbean.  There are lots of doomer stories this week about how the sargassum is going to muck everything, but the current is clean right through the whole place.  I have found that there was trouble only when it was stagnant.

Finally, this is the current up by the Gulf Stream.  The Greenland current is getting stronger and cutting off the GS.  The GC was very weak earlier in the winter.

Finally, the Pacific belt.  Still cold.

Extreme cold continues to threaten Toronto

 So, my prediction was for snow from November to April.  The California storms gave us a milder winter, as all the cold spilled onto Siberia.  Everybody was dancing!  

This shows the movement of the cold, and the temperature maps shows what it is.

All our rain could have been snow.  However, we have a few more attacks of the Cold Blobs coming down on us.  One of them is sure to have it's boundard right over Toronto.  We have a very good chance of a big late storm.

I see Spring as officially here when all this cold blob action stops.  Spring is defined by ocean breezes from the Pacific coming right over us.  Dry, cool, and sunny.  

Fish thoroughly brow-beaten

Well, so much for my interpretation of the Scientific Method.  The models are accurate because they can keep changing.  My take is that you draw a hypothesis in the sand and stand to defend it to its death, and then move on.

Air turbulence blamed on climate change

 

If anything happens in the world, you know the standard explanation.  Like I've said, it used to be 'God's Will' and now it's 'climate change'.  Neat.

ps.  we do have a mechanism that was discovered before nasa shut down all atmospheric physics.  It's large clear-air convection cells.  The cold air comes down in very dense sheets.  If they had continued these studies we would have a cheap and easy laser to deal with this stuff.  It was bad in the 70's and now will get worse for our ice cycle.  One of the many consequences of giving up on physics.

Australia Drowns

 

Here you can see the cold equatorial belt drives down the southern tropical breezes.  These dump all over ozzieland.  A normal, warm belt would keep the tropics up more north.  They will continue to have massive rain, as long as things remain cold on the belt.  The influencers say warmth is coming soon, but I don't see it.  The media will have to cut off Australia in order to keep things under control.  Nobody will miss it.  :)

It's up to the landownunder to pop up and say "Not dry yet!"  But they won't.

State of the Oceans -- March 23, 2023

 I'm not giving my opinion any more, but instead embracing the party that is climate change.  Does it matter that windmills and solar cells are China's ticket to world domination?  No.

We note that the cold water current is as strong as ever.  The expected El Nino is going to have to slog against the current.  

Nooa made such a big deal about the blue becoming white, and here it is turning blue again.

Such a nice cold streak down the centre.  

And this is the incubator for El Nino.  It should be very hot by now, ready to burst out on the world.  It is very cold.

Seen the Sun lately?

 

Yeah, this is the weather of my childhood.  People got too spoiled with that runup to 2016.  Worst place in the world for solar and wind power.  We exist in dark gloom.

A geophysical chart for the masses

 

I am bashed down to the lowest depths of geophysics hell.  I've been taunting all the warmies to produce a chart showing warmth, especially the world temperature chart, and the whole discussion of 1.5C.

Now, from the ocean of available charts, they have plucked on that I've been looking at for a long time.

For years this chart faithfully plotted the cooling of the world.  It was at a peak at 2016, and then has been going down as we cooled.  Suddenly, it was zooming up, totally independent from the world temperature charts.  How could this happen?

It was the momentous events that led to the drowning of California.  People may ask what was happening, but they didn't get any answers, other than the standard -- 'Climate Change'.  One in a million people might ask -- What was the mechanism?

They'll only get the answer here.  There was a momentous energy shift, as much as anything like El Nino.  The entire Arctic spilled all it cold air through Siberia and the Bering Str.  During that time, all of Europe danced at how warm it was.

This cold air flooded the Pacific.  I've never seen anything like that.  The whole ocean became a mass of cyclones, all hitting California.  The concept of how those temperatures were taken was blown away.  The cold air struck low, and raised the hot air.  The satellites recorded that as being warmer.  It is a totally erroneous reading.  As with all their 'charts of the day' we expect this to start falling rapidly.  

Today's charts are tomorrow's fish wrap.  When this chart falls, you won't hear a peep from the 'popular people'.  On to digging up another chart!  At least they used a chart, and will throw it away.

ps. just realized why the chart has a double bump.  As the polar oceans freeze, they come off the chart, and only the warmer areas left.  Not a good chart for mechanisms.

Questions about the weather

 I've given up on geophysics as an explanation for anything.

Reference

However, I will record the questions that people are starting to ask.  For example, the answer to this question is 'climate change', just like that was the answer to why there was drought.  It's the same answer as 'God's Will'.  I'm glad people are happy with that.

All the geophysics sites are leaving

 When the whole climate change thing started, they were very proud of the charts.  The rise up to 2016 was rapid, and probably a combination of two cycles.  Everything was based on the spurious correlation of co2 (going up anyway), and temperature.  All the models echoed this correlation because they manually forced it in, claiming that they couldn't match the results without forcing it.

All other geophysics was floundering because all this broke every law of physics in the books.  They had to come up with a magic link to water vapour.  Nobody actually measured what the co2 was doing, which would have been easy, but would give a negative result.

Thus, we entered our great era of 'no physics' and even 'no logical thought'.  This caused trillions of wasted money because nobody could use a chart to locate or build windmills, etc.  Engineers were thrown out, and it all 'just had to look good'.  

Now, we are in a great discussion of whether we have hit 1.5C, or whether we are close, etc.  They are in a bit of a pickle, because the doomers want to say 1.5, and the 'hopefuls' want to say 'almost there' but we can make it if we destroy the world economy.  No charts are available.

The few people who publish charts are being knocked out because there are no charts that support this, so it is best not to have any.  I suspect that even nooa will stop the charts.  

That puts me out of business.  We'll just have colder and colder weather, and I'll have to say 'dunno'.  I did expect that people would question all this eventually, but, no, it won't happen.  I'll just stick to earthquakes, the study of which allows measurements.  

The reasonable request for charts

 

They are mentioning a number, and indicating they are on the road to that number.  I feel I can ask for their roadmap, or a chart.  But there are no charts in any of these articles.

In the meantime, taxpayers are paying 10B for a useless battery plant (useless in terms of physics).  And never any charts.  

So, I just ask "Where's the beef?"  Out in the wilderness, all alone.  At least nobody goes after me.

ps.  another geophysics site climatereanalyzer.com may have left the building.

I like being melodramatic, but there is a history of these places having 'problems' and then leaving.  This is a true 'climate change' site that was hoping the geophysics would support the cause.  They may have suffered for being a 'traitor'.  :(

Arctic ice is a hockey stick

 

There are no charts to support this.  All the articles are just quotes of quotes.  That's the new standard these days.

This is a chart.  The Arctic ice volume, or average thickness, is curving up at the end.  In the old days, this was a grand thing.  Books were written about the curve at the end of the world temperature plot.  We all know what happened then.  But, does anybody care about the ice hockey stick?  No, now it's all about the 'weight' of the long decline before.  

Arctic air mass breaking up

 

This is what Spring should look like, but it is happening quite slowly.  The tropical plumes that should be smashing into the Arctic are weak.  And the 60 below stuff is showing again in Greenland.  In Canada, we are getting lots of cold blobs descending on us.

We will have a long, cold Spring.  Expect the last snow for Toronto in April.  

The Old Man and the Sea -- Ocean currents -- March 18, 2023

 We have our new map of the ocean currents, and it looks about the same as always.  I haven't detected a major change for the last couple of years.

What is the mechanism of the Pacific Ocean cycles?  The conventional influencer explanation is all hot air, or wind changes.  They will tell us that the Pacific ocean currents are driven by the winds, and the cycles are a change of the wind direction.  However, the water has 1000 times the heat energy density of the air, and physics is not happy with this explanation.  In fact, the whole climate thing violates all the laws of physics.

But I am not here to bury influencer explanations, but to praise them.  Who else would give us such joy?  Anyway, they have gone out on a limb and have declared the Pacific Cold Phase is dead, and we'll have a Hot Phase within a month or two.  This is their first explanation that can actually be measured.  Although, they endless discuss the 1.5C limit, they present no way to measure it in an acceptable way (to them).

We still have a very strong current coming from Antarctica.  This makes the current very cold.

We have that lovely cold water down the middle of the Belt.  The warm wedge to the East is dying.  

The Gulf Stream continues to leave the area north of UK.  They might be feeling a bit cold.  

To be serious, there are two views of the world, one is popular, and the other, with physics, is not.  The influencers must live with a world that is getting colder, while they try to convince people that they are warm.  It becomes more difficult each year.  The hard physics view looks at the charts, and the physical mechanisms, and proposes a hypothesis that we are entering, either a 20 year cold cycle (like the 70's) or a long cold cycle, like the Little Ice Age.

It is possible to construct a full 'game physics' model of the Earth, using physics first principles.  This has been done, but they are very quiet about it.  Apparently, you can't get published if you go against the popular opinion.  With the Pacific ocean shut down, the Earth's poles will run out of residual heat.  We will just have shorter summers, and long, cold winters.  However, there will always be heat waves, getting hotter, but shorter, all due to the lack of moderating ocean air.  I am confident that the popular opinion can be stoked for another few years.

ps  A prediction -- A year from now, the Pacific will be colder than ever, and nooa would never dare to call it '4th La Nina in a row'.  The only people who will cry will be Australia.  Everybody else will ignore this inconvenient situation.  The reported heat waves will get hotter and hotter, but shorter and shorter, and nobody will report that.  In fact, division by zero may result in tinier specks of energy with the heat waves.  I expect the headlines "Death Valley has the hottest minute on record!"  

Shallow M6.7 earthquake in Equador

 

This is a bad place to have an earthquake.  Right at the port facilities, and you know that all the foundations are sludge.  We'll see the reports later.

ps.   not a thrust earthquake, so the ground motions are a bit lower.

pps.  the peak ground velocity appears to be low.

Alberta Injection Earthquake

 

They are getting bigger.  There appears to be not much monitoring there, so you can't see a mechanism, and the location is off.

You can see the oil and gas works nearby the earthquake.  It would really be right underneath the injection well.  I don't expect any physics from Alberta, so it will be usual 'deer in the headlights' thing.

Snow or rain for Toronto?

 The Arctic is warming up, no more -60C stuff around.

However, we have a cold blob that is moving slowly.

This is following our usual pattern of cold blobs coming down, and pushing the warm air.  Then, a Pacific plume brings up a spur of warmth from the Gulf.  This is now heading for Toronto.

It collides with the next cold blob and gives us lots of snow.  This time, the collision may be north of Toronto, and the snow stays where is belongs...  As with all our big snow storms so far, if we line up perfectly with the collision zone, we get to shovel a lot.

ps.  this is a great discussion of how doomed we are, but nobody mentions how to measure this.

Do they think we have reached 1.5C?  Are we halfway there?  Is there no hope?  It all hinges on a measurement.  However, there are no measurements, very sad...

Arctic ice volume continues a trend up

 

There is a general trend up, but this year's peak volume is down a bit, due to all those Atlantic plumes going up past Iceland.  So I wouldn't put much into this.

NOAA does the world temp plot

 This is exciting.  As we know, nooa picks whatever plot shows the best for them, and that is climate change.

They choose the 'February only' plot which is totally false to use for the world temperatures, but that's them.  Here, they can tout 'Third warmest Feb' in their PR newsletter.  

The real plot is this one, because there are no seasons in the world plot, and it is extremely jagged, so you can have a warm Feb compared to only Feb's.  The red line is the famous UN extrapolation that everyone uses, when they want to make money with a doomer story.  This has become totally ridiculous, but they are forced to use it, because they have nothing else.  When talking to a doomer they'll scream at you "Carbon goes up, temperature goes up, end of story."  

You'll notice that Feb has poked up a bit, probably due to that warm spot in the East Pacific.  But that has fizzled out, and I think we'll go back to colder.  The sea level has gone down, indicating that the fever is over.

That hotspot has really cold water behind it now, so we shall go on with a cold Pacific.

No high plumes will be generated, and when I agree that 'La Nina is dead", I really mean that it can't be called that any more.  For the last 200 years or so, the fishermen of Chile invented that for a short cold cycle that brought the anchovies.  Now, they might be rolling in fish for the next 20 years.

ps. for the US plot, it is appropriate just to plot Febs.  It was very low this year, so they ignored it.

Cold coming down to Toronto

 We are living the consequence of no Pacific heat plumes.

We are getting nice cold blobs again.  Since all the Arctic air flow has been going elsewhere, we weren't getting these.  Siberia is no longer getting the flow, but there is Alaska and Europe.

This is the fun of the media just zooming in on warm sections -- they aren't warm for very long, but then they are forgotten.  No big press on cold spots.  

The tropical plumes are being pushed down to the belt, to the point where they don't really exist.  However, they are north enough to soak California, and they should go through to raise Atlantic plumes.  I'm always thinking that a true 'Little Ice Age' has both belts dead, in terms of plume generation.  There is no heat in the winter for the north without plumes.

Pacific plumes quenched

 

This hasn't happened before, but who's keeping track?  In the north, we totally depend on Pacific plumes for heat.  There is always one hanging around.  But today --- nada.  We had our one 'last gasp' plume go up and split the Arctic air mass -- that was great.

This puts Toronto in 'default weather', which appears to be continuous snow.  Without a Pacific plume, there won't be any Atlantic plumes for Europe.  This is all while we are in the mourning period for La Nina.  We'll have to see what happens.

State of the oceans - March 12, 2023

 All physics ended in 1850, so the influencer saying goes.  Our Victorian doctors have declared La Nina dead with Victorian tools, and the world must go with that.  I, also, declare it dead, for if there is anything more, it can no longer be called La Nina, but the Pacific Cold Phase.

I do this once a week when the ocean currents chart comes out.

I'm always looking at the section that feeds the Pacific Belt.  At one time, it was warm water from the North, now it's all cold water direct from Antarctica.  I also look at the Gulf Stream, but that's too much of a muddle right now.  A long time ago, it went straight to UK and kept them warm for 100 years, but that's over.

The map to look at is the direct water temperature chart.  The major action that keeps the rest of the world warm happens at 30C.  Nothing is anywhere near there.  There is an alarming section near Indonesia that is below 25C.

This is the anomaly map that takes an arbitrary average from 1971 to 2000.  That was a very cold period in our history, mainly the 70's.  Our good friends at noooa have declared this a 'neutral' temperature, and so, declared La Nina dead because the belt is now at this median.  This temperature is quite cold, 

El Nino always comes from Indonesia, when it gets super-hot, and then spills all over the Pacific.  I have a lot of charts from the Great El Nino of 2016.  You won't see these anywhere.  Needless to say, there is no sign of this.

We can look at all that fine rain hitting Ozzieland.  Now that La Nina is over, they are saying it will dry up like a prune.  They wish...   But, I'm not here to rain on their parade.  In fact, I'm not saying anything, since everybody wanted to kill me on CBC for saying there's no warmth in the Pacific.

For the 3 people who like physics, I have only gloomy things to say.  That's okay, because anybody who does physics is gloomy anyway.  The cold water current feeding the Pacific Belt is increasing in energy, and it would be nice if somebody measured it, but that won't happen.  The world shall continue to get colder, but we won't notice it because everybody will say it's getting warmer.  At some point, the elastic band from the truth has to break, but I don't know when.  Certainly, there's no money in it.

ps.  I suppose at this time, we must consider how the '2 n's' can gracefully climb down and save face.  However, they have killed countless people by siphoning money for useless things.  This is how Ancient Egypt failed.  But, we should ignore that, and say 'Who could understand horrible old physics, anyway?'

La Nina Daily Death Watch -- March 11, 2023

 La Nina has been officially declared dead and El Nino should begin.  This declaration was done without physics, and I made a bit of stir on CBC arguing the doctor's declaration.  But, now I accept it.

However, as Good Victorians we must watch the body until it starts to stink.  Putting live people into the grave was a great fear.

This is the temperature anomaly map, which is based on a pre-2000 baseline.  It was cold then, and everything past that to 2016 had warmer water.  This is their big mistake.  All of the previous encroachments of cold water just shoved away the warmth, and it was just a rebound pulse.  This was our former La Nina.  A physics model would have shown that, but nobody does physics.  In my blog, I tracked the magnificence of the 2016 El Nino.  That was something, with a huge current reversal and amazing heat energy.

The anomaly of the anomaly map is the extreme cold around Indonesia.  That is where we would expect the El Nino warmth to start.  The baby is stillborn.

This is the map of direct ocean temperatures.  It hasn't changed for the last few years.  It shows the hook of the Antarctic waters up the west coast of SA.  The current maps remain steady.

We are at the stage where the official 'doctors' of the world declare the patient dead, and I, with my physics stethoscope say he's still alive (Victorian steam-punk).  That is why we have the death watch.  Should the doctors be correct, we must 'look to the east' for a start of warmth.  Should I be correct, Australia will have a good skiing winter, and lots of rain for a soggy summer.  The world temperatures will continue to go down, and the UK will continue to have the climate of Labrador (during the warm spell).  

ps.  one consequence of the Pacific being cold-stone-dead is that the plumes are lower, and rise up to hit California.  A completely different mechanism than the previous rains.

pps.  their declaration of death is a bit too much for me.  This whole web of lies has me going to ground for a while.

Another perfect storm hits Toronto

 

This is fun that we are getting an exact duplicate of all the storms before.  That's called a steady pattern.

In other news, La Nina has been officially declared dead, and an El Nino is coming any minute now.

This, of course, is garbage, typical of the influencers.  Since there is no physics being measured here, nobody will believe me, and I don't want them to.  The tide gauge shows things to be as cold as ever, and the ocean currents are getting stronger.  So, it will be a few months before people say "Isn't that parrot supposed to be dead?"  

ps.  I commented on the cbc article that La Nina still had a heartbeat, and that they were betrayed by the Church of Science - naasa and nooa.  Boy, are all those fans mad a me!  I have to go into deep relaxation.

pps.  still snowing heavily.  I can't wait for the new ocean current maps for the Death Watch on La Nina.

more:  only an inch of snow

The tides come in

 

#physics #weather Tide trends finally updated  I was giving up on this.  You can tell the temperature of the oceans by looking at the small signals of the tide gauge.  This one is Astoria, which is the only one I have found which is steady with regard to the distance to the centre of the earth.  All other places are either sinking or rising.

  This month has a sharp drop down, which reflects world temperatures, all controlled by the oceans.  The Great Canard is noaa’s contention that sea levels are rising.  Bull-crap!  The only places where local sea level is rising are carefully chosen sites where there is coastal sinking, due to tectonic forces.  The Pacific islands are either active and rising (lots of volcanism) or sinking, and forming coral atolls.  I’m going to visit there soon.  Good snorkeling means sinking.

First NOAA temperature plot of the month

 

As written in Masty:

#physics #weather  **NOAA US temp plot**  On this plot they just do the month.  This is reasonable because of the seasons.  They then go on to do it for the world, which is not reasonable -- part of the Great Fantasy, or groupthink.  

  I laugh at their PR department who must make this appear to support climate change.  They do that by constantly changing the semantics.  For a long time, they could always say 'Hottest Ever', and now, during our ice cycle, they had a succession of '2nd hottest, 3rd hottest', etc, every year.  When they got to 10, they changed to 'top third'  

  This month is so beyond that, they normally don't say anything.  I don't even think it's 'top half'.  

  Like a Ponzi scheme, the great fantasy is supported by circular arguments.  Lay down a supposition that co2 affects the weather, then produce models that incorporate this, to 'prove' it.  Only look at things which support it, only do headlines for the fewer and fewer heat waves in the world.  And so on.  It's great, and I fully support it!!  No denial here....

ps.  don't worry about this.  I could never win a debate.  When I have communicated with fans, I get 'Who cares about a circular argument?'  and 'The Scientific Method is so yesterday.'  I give up, it's like going after bitcoin and Toronto housing in its prime.

State of the World's Heat Flow - March 7, 2023

 This is the hard physics viewpoint.  It is consistent with all laws of physics, which influencers find constraining.  

Hypothesis -  The Earth must reject heat from the Sun, or it fries.  It has maintained temperatures for life for billions of years.  No cataclysmic event has stopped this self-regulating system.  Almost all the world's heat energy is trapped at the equator in the Pacific Belt.  It has a limit of about 30C, and excess heat energy is shunted off by tropical atmospheric plumes, and/or non-belt ocean currents.

This is the major non-belt current (Gulf Stream), which takes heat from the much smaller Atlantic belt.  It has always warmed UK and northern Europe.  It has been running for the last couple of hundred years.   Right now, it has stopped at Iceland, and the Greenland current has started up again, like Niagara Falls.  That's an ice-cold current and is decimating the GS.  Recently, it has been going up and down like a dog's tail for treats.

This is the feed to the Pacific Belt.  There is a hot wedge by Central America, but the main cold feed is getting stronger.

That hot wedge may not amount to much.  The main Pacific Belt is cold like ....  (whatever).  Australia has hopes for it to end, but it's colder than ever.  Invest in umbrella makers.  Ocean currents do not reverse easily.

Rebuilding Southern Turkey

 

This was a beautiful paradise, built on sludge.  So many disasters have hit sludge cities.  How can it be rebuilt?  

New Orleans was pure laissez-faire, which meant 'do nothing'.  All the working poor and middle-class left for Houston, with nothing on their back.  All their possessions were gone.  New Zealand's Christchurch was the complete opposite -- everybody got gov't insurance money for the full value of their possessions.  They all left for Australia.  See the difference?  Nope.

Actually, I had bright ideas, but this is the afternoon and I turn off my brain for the day.  Maybe tomorrow morning, maybe not.  I can't see a way through the muck.  Even if I did, there is no hope of enacting it.  A strongman in his early days could do it, but now he has killed too many bright people.  He will just brood in his enclave, and arrest everyone.  I need a sign of hope...

The other problem with sludge cities is that they are sinking.  This earthquake will have knocked things down another metre.  You would have to raise everything on piles and fill the gap with concrete.  Wow.

Turkey earthquake has closed out

 First a note on rebuilding.  This earthquake is an interior earthquake, exactly the same as New Madrid and Christchurch.  These are one in 500 years earthquakes.  You won't expect another one for 500 years.  You would think it would be easy to rebuild, but no.

Christchurch is a ghost town.  It's as rebuilt as New Orleans, which is now a shabby tourist trap.  Nobody wants to go there again.  Why can't anybody rebuild?  Because there is no faith without physics.  All the natural influencers have left, and there are only paid gov't hucksters.

New Madrid had no buildings at the time, so everybody just built in utter cluelessness.  When that earthquake comes around again, it will be the same as all the other disasters -- a total wasteland.

Guatemala rebuilt from an earthquake 100 years ago, and left some ruins to be charming.  But that can't be done with recent earthquakes.  Perhaps the memories are too strong.

Back to geology:

This is the full aftershock map.  It defines the fault planes of the two big earthquakes.  I was going for another big earthquake at the bottom, but it appears the geology won't support this.

Recent earthquakes with the fault lines

You can actually see the lines in the topography.  This mechanism is done.  The rift dropped, and faded out to the south.   It ran into the upper fault and wrenched it.  This caused a complex strike-slip earthquake.  

How can you rebuild and not follow all the others?  Physics, not influencers.  However, there is no physics in the world, and I expect this to become another wasteland.