This is just pretty. Looks like the rain will hit before the snow.
That snow line is amazing.
Saturday, October 10, 2026
Panama Earthquake exact model for Toronto scenario
Aftershocks are filling in, and the fault length is 200 km for an M7.7.
As is usual for these things, a complex rupture, of two main events.
I'm going with a 'busted rock' earthquake, and not a 'hard rock' earthquake like Toronto would be. 80 to 100 cm/s at the epicentre and perhaps 40 cm/s in the city. Not much building stock in the near-field, and it wouldn't tell us much.
All soft-story condos will be tilted and cracked in the city. Almost no loss of life due to the remote location. The Toronto scenario moves the contour lines out by a factor of 3. Montreal is hit, as well as Toronto.
As usual, soft deposits amplify the pgv by a factor of 10, with no effect on pga. This earthquake will again show that engineering is only related to pgv, and not pga. Nobody will learn anything.
Rumours of records tell of a big velocity pulse. All building damage will be due to 'fling' and not resonance. All of this knowledge will be repressed to protect the religion of the usgs and earthquake engineering. Had it happened in Taiwan, we would learn something.
This was a shallow thrust, and we'll have no information for the near-field.
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