As I predicted, natgas is starting to zoom. Those crazy people have gone outside, and panicked. However, please note that I have been constantly wrong on this, and I have no gravitas, like all the other great people. I just have the feeling that this is it, or maybe not.
At this time of year, natgas zooms when the crazy people realize that there is something called 'winter'. Even now, if there is a warm spell, the price will go down again. The real zoom comes if they think they'll run out of gas from storage.
They almost ran out last year, and I have confidence to 80% that they will run out in February or March. However, they never really 'run out', it just becomes harder and harder to extract, like the slurping of your milkshake. I generally think of slurping as 'running out'.
There is a double-whammy of extreme cold, and that's the 'freezing' of the operating wells, as well as the stopping of fracking new wells. It can all come together in a big boom.
But don't worry, all this is well beyond most people. It's just fun to watch. Canada is no fun because the supplies are good. If we have an A9 Arctic spill, like a few years ago, all of the Texas gas will freeze, because they never learn anything. Then look to gas going to 20 bucks.
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