Wednesday, March 18, 2020

The virus will most likely peter out

This is a projection based on physics.  If we can get transmission down to between 0 and 1, then it dies.  That means we are in an 'explosive' phase if one infected person can infect 10 people in a dental conference.  But, if an infected person does not transmit to anybody, then the epidemic dies.

The big question is why we have a 'flu season'.  That's because we are all jammed indoors and we have lots of parties, concerts etc.  Also, if it gets into students, then it goes wild.  

Toilet paper aside, I think we'll seen things calm down soon.  Sars1 died, and I don't see that this is ten times worse in the infection rate.  Maybe we'll get surprised.  But I don't see that we can get any more 'super spreader' events which are essential for a rapid rise.

Be calm and think of physics.  Follow my advice and make indoor UV air sterilizers.  It won't do anything but make you feel good.  The last venue for super-spreading is the Costco line.  Costco may kill us all **.  Try to avoid it.

** The Costco line must be banned.  They need to enforce on-line reservations.  All I said above is null and void if we have super-spreading in those lines.


ps.  well, this is funny.  I was just at costco and thought this was original.

However, unless they have a text system so people can wait in their cars, they just move the huge line to outside.

ps.  the auto factories are closing, and a low-margin parts company that employs a relative is shutting down.  Hope she gets ei right away.

pps.  Costco has restricted entrance and there is a huge line outside.  Super spreading is working!  These people will get sick with pneumonia.  Costco will kill millions!

more:  uber cars and elevators can still be super-spreaders if you touch your face.  Old age homes could be big.  But I still think we are getting to magic figure between 0 and 1.


Penny said...

I think it will peter out as well and would have anyway- sans hysteria that is

I don't go to COSTCO.

Harold Asmis said...

OMG! You might just live another month.