Winter is the New Spring

I just had to show the picture from this morning in Toronto.  And it's going to -7 tonight, so this year's April Fool will be a pratfall on the ice.  

This has just got to bump up natgas prices.  Or maybe the next one.

All of this is just 'temporary', nudge, wink, etc.

ps.  winterwonderland

pps.  How does the UK know it will warm up?

Winter is still upon us for a few more weeks

Such is the fun of an ice age.  We have it officially from nasa that we are in 'temporary' cold, a reverse of climate change.  All the warmies are emphasizing 'temporary'.  As usual, there is no physics defining the term, so people can think it means 'next year is warm again', and if it isn't, then it means 'geologic time'.

We had another slashing plume bringing up Gulf heat, but that is still weak.  The high plumes are bringing down Arctic air.  It will only get warm when our 'default weather' rises because of the sun.  In April I look forward to turning over the garden -- not going to happen.  The ice will leave the cottage lake quite late this year.

I have been totally wrong about natgas prices.  I had thought that running out of storage meant something, but apparently it does not.  My bad.

ps.  we have a sheltered nook facing west.  It's an oven during climate change, but during the ice age it is great.  I was enjoying great warmth.

pps.  just a reminder that all our forecasters when with warming and said March would be very warm.  I said that I didn't see where the heat was coming from.

Ocean currents -- March 27, 2019

The 'anti-Gulf stream' or Flug Stream continues.  The Atlantic Ocean continues to dump heat to the south.

The Flug Stream means cold weather for the UK.

In the Pacific, I am amazed that the Bering Straight current is roaring at full strength.  I've never seen this current before, so we are going to have to call it something.  I'm going to call it the Gore Stream.

The Gore Stream is flowing like a river between the Aleutian Islands, and organizing itself for a hit on the Pacific current.  When that happens, I may call it a major ice age turnover.  The GS may also be saline and is indicative of massive Arctic ice build-up.  We've got nasa halfway there with Greenland, maybe they'll look at the Arctic.

Boeing Dieselgate worse than thought

Reference

In an earlier article, I assumed that the plane was unstable, because any pilot would have immediately turned off the auto pilot.  Surprise!  There was no way to turn it off.  And no mention in the manual.

To have merely mentioned the dang thing, Boeing would have had to give it a speaking part and paid millions more.  Now we'll never know that if they had been able to unplug the wild computer, they could have saved the plane.  I seriously doubt it.

NASA admits Greenland glacier growing again

Reference

If you follow my blog then nasa is agreeing with me.  It's been growing for the last two years, just like Arctic ice.  The Atlantic is turning over, but only 'temporarily'.  Now, this is the right hand of nasa who is fighting the left hand.  They have to go into semantic somersaults to save themselves.

"That was kind of a surprise. We kind of got used to a runaway system," said Jason Box, an ice and climate scientist with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland. "The good news is that it's a reminder that it's not necessarily going that fast. But it is going."

Did you know that an exponential runaway reaction can go backwards?  Yet it does.  The carbon hypothesis has no provision for back-sliding, yet it does.

A natural cyclical cooling of North Atlantic waters likely caused the glacier to reverse course, said study lead author Ala Khazendar, a NASA glaciologist on the Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) project. Khazendar and colleagues say this coincides with a flip of the North Atlantic Oscillation — a natural and temporary cooling and warming of parts of the ocean that is like a distant cousin to El Niño in the Pacific.

Here we are saying the turnover of the Atlantic is as temporary as El Nino.  Yet it has been responsible for huge climatic shifts.  And it doesn't come every 7 years.  I really like this, but the best is yet to come.

While this is "good news" on a temporary basis, this is bad news on the long term because it tells scientists that ocean temperature is a bigger player in glacier retreats and advances than previously thought, said NASA climate scientist Josh Willis, a study co-author. Over the decades, the water has been and will be warming from man-made climate change, he said, noting about 90 per cent of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases goes into the oceans.

Now we are getting into the meat of how they will handle the coming ice age.  Ocean currents are having a huge effect that swamps the carbon hypothesis, but it's only a blip.  We won't do any measurements on the 'greenhouse' thing, since anything we make up is solid.

Now comes the icing on the cake, it's like bitcoin and Toronto housing, only with no physics whatsoever.

What's happening, Joughin said, is "to a large extent, a temporary blip. Downturns do occur in the stock market, but overall, the long-term trajectory is up. This is really the same thing."

In the famous comedy routine about Noah's flood -- "How long can you tread water?"  How long can these 'Gods of Global Warming' freeze, and continue to say "Any minute now, it will start to boil again."  

They've lasted two years, and since it their lives on the line, I'd say another 10 years.  All the rich kids in the elite universities can go into their classes.  :)

Still at least one more April cold snap

So there's a high plume stirring up the Arctic which is at 30 below.  This will come crashing down on in a week or so, still outside of the 7 day forecast. 

Ocean currents - March 22, 2019

The main reason I started do this regularly is that nobody is keeping a record of the changes in ocean currents.  We now know that huge ocean current changes have been responsible for ice advance- associated changes, like 11,000 years ago.  That scientific article had the glorious fame of never mentioning carbon dioxide.  The warmies are rolling over in their willful ignorance.

This week has many interesting points and some disturbing trends, if you like warmth in the Northern Hemisphere.

This one is now showing a powerful 'Anti Gulf Stream'.  The more intense contours are gathering farther north along Brazil.  I have never seen this before, and it is significant.

You can see that all the warm water of the Atlantic is slowly drifting south.  It should be going the other way by now.  As well, look at the devastation of the Gulf Stream.

The Arctic current is always getting stronger and stronger.  It comes from the buildup of ice.

Finally, the Pacific Dip is revealed to be a zone where the ocean current splits.  One going West, the other going East.  It's rather useless of me to say I've never this either.

The dip, which you are free to see, or not, is the zone where the warm water has a curve to the south, in the middle.  Nevertheless, if you see it or not, it is stopping plumes from advancing on North America.

The plumes, which are only hope for Spring warmth are stopped at the dip, and then they bend over, giving us a very weak lash (how sadistic!).

So, we are doomed to + or - 10 deg C for a while yet.  The ground won't thaw.  This is what sugar maple trees evolved for.

ps. as per the scientific article, we can't tell if we are in a minor or major Atlantic turnover.  There is no context here.

The physics of direct carbon capture

Reference

This is something that will never get off the ground.  As the ice age comes in, it will be too cold to operate!  :) (and a big glacier will grind it to pulp)

In reality, it will take a lot of energy to freeze carbon dioxide out of the air.  They will have to take over an abandoned bitcoin facility in the middle of nowhere, where electricity is free, because the mill closed down.  They are in it to get 'carbon credits' and get money out of justin.

Way up in the mountains, there is no way to store the co2 underground.  We know from abandoned fracking attempts that the whole thing is fractured.  BC is full of abandoned attempts, and this will be one of them.  Same as 'hot dry rock thermal'.  All losers, all with no physics.

Anyway, don't mention anything to anybody.  Let them have their fun.

ps.  this reminds me of when Bruce Nuclear said they wanted to build a new nuclear plant on Lake Erie, which freezes solid in the winter.  The locals were upset, but I said that they should calm down.  The whole thing was some political trick.

Dip in the Pacific Ocean will be freezing us

I just noticed this.  The plumes aren't crossing the Pacific.  Instead, they stop and go high, and then slowly bend down.

When we were warm, they marched across the Pacific like soldiers.  There is a big dip in the warm water which may explain why.

Can't wait to see how this pans out.  I really want some warmth, even if it plays to the justins.  :(

Cold Until April - Warm Plumes Repelled at Border

Now that we know ocean currents controlled the latest big post-glacial climate episodes, we can finally talk about the cold at "Where's Spring?" parties *.  Party favours include ice spikes for boots, gloves, and hats.  Frozen vodka martinis only.

Two weak Pacific plumes bounced off the North American border.  That means, good old NA doesn't want any warmth yet.  It wants to fully shatter the Warmie Manifesto.  I'm very sorry having to report this, since I really want to start digging in the garden.

* Next week there is a giant flashmob selfie party in Toronto.  Lots of happy snowmen dancing.

ps.  I won't go because it'll be too cold.  Great signs are being made:

Carbon-Schmarbon, I'm Cold!
Global Temperatures Down -- What's UP with that?
Ocean Currents Rule!
What do school-kids know?
Throw another warmie on the fire.
Cover up, Justin, it's freezing!

Climate change caused by ocean currents

Reference

Unbelievable, a big climate study with no mention of carbon dioxide.  I am in shock.

Mammals and Dinosaurs

Reference

This is just fun stuff and has nothing to do with climate change.

Mammals and dinos separated at 312 million years ago.  Then at 270 mya, we had an explosion of forelimb changes.

You can see that the continents were starting to lump together.  This would have produced huge climate changes.

But nothing was like the Jurassic thermal blanket of continent.  This gave us a very hot and wet Earth, and the dinos ruled as large animals.  The mammals went into hiding. 

Then the continents split again, and we have mammal city.

Official End to California Drought

It's quite neat that during our 20 year warming period, the plumes went high to the Yukon and curled over, missing Callie entirely.  Thus they had a huge drought that emptied the dams.  The water system is designed for 7-year droughts and this was much longer. 

Another Atmospheric River Storm (ARS) is hitting them now, but it is weak.  The next plume also looks weak.  The UK is now getting the last strong plumes.  Callie has had 20 of these storms this year.

Meanwhile, the Arctic is cruising along at -40.  That means we will get lots of winter until late April.  In the little warm blasts I can prune my trees.  This year, Toronto will probably get frost to the middle of May, so take care.

Ending climate change requires a world central government and communism

Reference

Or, maybe, it will just end on its own.

ps.  I am never mentioning climate change again.  All these guys are nasty.

I'll just mention world temperatures, Arctic ice volume, ocean currents, etc.  Nothing to do with climate change....

Ocean Activity - Mar 18, 2019

Quite amazing that a lot of heat is still being diverted to the south.  If that full current were to be below the nose, then it's a major ice age.  As it is, you can only really tell of the heat loss is through the ocean temps.

I'll call it as increasing, causing us to be cold.

The tropical plumes have completely stopped.

So, we are frozen for a while.  Natgas is up a few percent.  It'll go way up when they read the new storage report, that there is no more gas.  These guys are slow on the uptake.

We got a month of cold coming up.  As I've said, I don't know what will appear to warm us.

ps. suddenly the Pacific plumes are coming straight East, right to us.  This is warmth.

Hologram Concert to Deliver Full SNC Apology

Reference

A NEW MUSICAL!

SPRINGTIME FOR SNC

A real-life hologram presents a full apology set to music.

The smoke will be so real, you can taste it.

No one in Canadian politics will be spared, including 'that guy's dad'.

Blurb:

I created snc in my image.  At first, there were no 'pure laine' engineers, so we had to fake it with a lot of bribes.  My money went in, and then it went out.  Soon, all 'anglais' engineers were out of business.  You can see all the great engineering we created.

Songs:

I did it my way
Sorry (not sorry)
We are the champions
Revenge is best served cold

All proceeds will go to politicians....

ps.  Actually, this is his real ghost, disguised as a hologram, so people don't get freaked out.

Boeing, Dieselgate and the abuse of physics

Reference

I like to write on the current state of engineering -- it has become too bureaucratic and they have left physics behind.

Boeing found themselves at the short end of the stick, just like VW.  They suddenly needed a fuel-efficient short-haul plane.  They slashed and hacked at the old 737 and came up with a monstrosity, something like putting a 300 hp outboard engine on a 14 foot fishing boat.

This Wile E Coyote thing could not fly, just like a diesel could not run, according to regulations.  In all these places, some bright engineer spoke out and said "There's no physics."  They weren't protected by a union, like I was in the nuclear business, so they were fired.  That just left the weasels, and they said they can come up with software.  The bosses said "Fix it or we'll kill you."

And that's the story.  It's not that the pilots can't fight the software, or just turn it off.  It's a question of stability which the engineers didn't consider.  Once the chaotic behaviour is started, it cannot be stabilized.  No 'software update' can fix this, since are are into new physics -- chaos.

In the nuclear biz, I wrote about this several times -- they used systems that were on the edge of chaotic instability.  Earthquake engineers do this as well.  Such is modern life -- no physics.

ps.  I could also characterize this as a slide from a 'physics purist' odds of 1 in 10 million, to a Facebook 'political expediency' odds of one 1 thousand.  Everything has gone that way.

pps.

SOFTWARE CAN FIX THIS!

Tropical Plume Report - Mar 16, 2019

So, now everybody is expecting warmer weather.  They only remember the last 20 years, which were wonderful.  If you are a warmie, then you only read projections which go on and on, hotter and hotter.  In the last few years, no warmie newspaper has published actual temperatures, only the projections which get more and more fantastic.

On the real earth, we are running out of natural gas to heat houses in the US.  They forecast the demand to the last puff, and this year they are wrong, as they will continue to be wrong, for the next 20 years.

Our weather for the next month or two is dependent on the behaviour of the tropical plumes, or whatever you want to call them.  For December, when we had our pipsqueak El Nino, we had regular vertical plumes that brought us a lot of heat.

For the last few months we've had 'slashing plumes', that is a plume which crosses the Pacific as vertical, and then slashes down on North America.  This sucked up warm Gulf air, and gave us big thaws, between 'polar vortexes', which have nothing to do with a vortex.  It's just a pretty term.

Now, we have stopped that pattern, and it looks like we'll get high plumes that come in through the Yukon.  This gives us very cold air without the big thaws.

Meanwhile, the slashing plumes always produced Atlantic plumes that hit the UK directly like an arrow in the bulls-eye.  I called that a 'fools paradise' and it looks like it has come to an end.

ps.  high plumes are driving down cold Yukon air.  Looks like maple sugar weather until April.

pps.  still -40 in the Arctic, yeah!

US Runs Out of Natural Gas

The definition of 'runs out' is that they must go to extraordinary measures.  You won't see any big announcements on this.  I just give it a 'good chance' that it will happen next week.  This is what I have predicting all year, and the gunk hits the fan now.

You'll notice that they didn't put much in storage this year, and this year is colder than last, and next will be colder still.  They rely on the temperature turning today, as it did last year, which just skimmed the bottom of the 5 year curve.  But it's going to crash through the bottom.

That's because we got another 'polar vortex' which is really just cold air filling in behind the warm plume.  This one might also be driven a bit by a high plume.  The demand for natgas is going to be huge.

If storage cracks through the bottom, we don't know what that really means.  Do they have room to draw more than the the 5 year band?  I'm thinking not.  Nobody is going to freeze.  It just means that the spot price is going through the roof and some industries will have to close.  If the extreme cold goes to mid-April, as it may, then it's another story.

Spot price in the North East.  Should be fun soon.

Bomb Cyclone on the Way

On the sea, it would be called a hurricane, but here it is a cyclone.  You can see the centre over Iowa.

With the mimic map, you can see it was caused by a Pacific plume slashing down on us and sucking up the Gulf warm air which would normally just stay there.  This shows the last 72 hours.

Now, the warmies are going to say this is climate change, but this is due as much to the tremendous cold air coming down with the upper plumes, as to the warm air.  If there is a severe difference, then we get a bomb.

ps.  the bomb has gone through Toronto, now it's cold.  Nlfd has ice conditions from 30 years ago.

Ocean currents - Mar 14, 2019

My ocean current guy remains swamped and is days behind.  I can't complain.  These currents are dated Mar 11.

The Atlantic current is disorganized, but there is an attempt to push water to the north.  This should result in a warmer Gulf of Mexico, which gives Toronto warm air.  The ocean temperatures don't show a reduction in southern warmth, but I suspect the warm area will shrink now.

Our saline current from the Arctic ocean is as strong as ever and decimates the Gulf Stream.  This current is a result of the build-up of ice, and is comprised of the left-over saline.  It has been strong ever since the last big El Nino of 2017.

Finally, we focus in on the North Pacific current which continues to shrink.  During the warm years, this was the main engine of North American warmth.  This week there is a very strong current of cold water from the Bering Straight.  In a major ice age, this current mucks up the Pacific flow.

There is no more southern Pacific flow, so this big hunk of warm water should shrink.  The same goes for the Atlantic.

In a major ice age, the warm southern blobs would continue to get bigger.  However, this effect will be felt for the summer, and you will need poly tunnels for your tomatoes.  Our summer will be crap, except for July, where we will 'break records' with stagnant air.

ps.  as the Arctic ice builds up to new records, we will be happy to note that it will become a tropical paradise.

pps.  if you go along with the UN you get a nobel peace prize.  Do not read reality, it doesn't get you anywhere....

Google Slate Review

I like this a lot better than the Pixel Book.  It breaks apart into a very nice tablet, and the keyboard is good, with a large touchpad.

This was my answer to someone who had to send back her corporate laptop when she became decorporated.  "I have to use Outlook.  I have to use Excel.  I have to use Word.".  I was trying to show her the chromebook and Google Drive.  Nope.  "It's exactly the same!" I said.

Now she can use Outlook with a gmail account.  All the ms apps on Android.  And now all the android apps work great with a large screen.  Someone, right now, is addicted to farmingvillage on Android.  And the beautiful screen shows all the cows in high detail! blah.

It's expensive, but fantastic.  If you don't want anybody running win10 in your house, then it is worth it.  My old guy, with an hpwin10, is always running into trouble, and then he has to call a nice guy in India to take over his computer and fix it.

Plumes aren't what they used to be - Mar 12, 2019

The plume guys were out of action for the last few days.  The plumes look very weak and are lashing down on North America rather than just hitting.  This is giving us one-day thaws and then bitter cold.

It's not like we had in December, with the mini El Nino.  Then the plumes were regular, very strong, and extended for some distance up North.

The water temps still show an extremely strong dump to the South.  I'm recording all this because I totally forget the normal pattern.  I've never seen such a strong flow of hot water down south in the Atlantic, but nobody would believe me, since nobody records it.

All in all, March stays like a lion.  I really don't know what warmth would look like when Spring finally comes.  I suspect it's just an increase in latitude-dependent default weather, which is darn cold.

ps.  Looking at it, the plumes are really chaotic right now.  Before, they were very regular.  Who knows what that means?

What if airplanes ran Windows?

I remember the old joke that if cars ran like Windows.  Now it's airplanes.  The term 'Blue Screen of Death' takes new meaning.

That big blackout a few years ago was a Win thing, although everybody blamed a tree.  The fact was that all the monitoring was done with win computers, and they were experiencing the Great Worm.  They never knew about the tree until the whole grid blew up.

The planes should run Linux.  However, there wouldn't be any drivers for new planes.  :)

ps.  more and more it looks like software has downed the two planes. 

Tomatoes Transplanted

Yeah, the totally miserable weather can't dampen garden enthusiasm!  This year there is no heat anywhere, so use a greenhouse.  I've put the tomatoes into the second and final transplant.  They will go into the greenhouse May 1, with 12 inches on them, and totally rootbound.

Neato.

ps.  poly tunnels will work, as well.

pps.  sun in the backyard, no wind, only -1, and I'm bbq'ing hamburgers in a tropical paradise!

Plume report - March 8, 2019

A tiny speck of warm air is coming in for a few days.

These are weak plumes lashing down on us, so a couple of days at freezing, then default weather at -10, etc, rinse, repeat.

No great amounts of warm water or air seen coming in.  All our warm water in the Atlantic is still flooding down Brazil.  Since this is so depressing, I am only reporting when I see it get above freezing.  This allows lots of refreeze ice on the sidewalks.  :)

I'm waiting for those trudeau climate change ads to warm me up....

ps.  the winter saved me.  Here we are, walking in a park of solid ice at 13 below, using our heaviest ice spikes.  Nobody else around, and the wind whistling.  Then a dog-leash enforcer comes screaming in his pick-up truck, a hundred yards away up a hill of solid ice, and yells to put the dog on a leash, who was right beside me.  He was in his driving shoes with the truck idling.    I did and kept walking.  I think he wanted me to go up the ice hill and get a ticket.  :)   Didn't see him again.  :)

ps.  the above never happened.  Total fiction.

pps.  and that's why you never want a police state, uneducated thugs get full power over you.

Ocean report - March 7, 2019

No big graphics, everything is almost the same as it was last week.  The heat flowing down at South America continues.  The Pacific current has no reversal.  The tropical plumes seem weak and widely separated.

It all looks like a depressing, cold Spring.  Sorry about that. 

Toronto real estate chart

Not much to say here.  FOMO means 'Fear of Missing Out', which is what causes people to buy bitcoin at the peak.  February shows a slight bounce.  Lots of houses for sale around the neighbourhood, all the signs buried in the snow.  The only sales are those people who have had the house a long time and can afford the 20% haircut.  Condos are flat but thousands of units are coming on-line.

Theoretically, things will pick up once the snow melts.  All the people who pulled their listings last year will try again.  When will we call it a crash? 

In the fall of 2017 I called the crash when the Chinese wild buyers suddenly pulled out of Unionville.  It has limped along since then, but all the new housing must cause pressure on people who are strung out.  They held on for a whole year, but can they hold on for another?  We'll see.

Plumes take a holiday

So, we are cold.  All the hopes for heat later in the week are with one plume.

Will that California plume go on?  Or will it turn?  The old plume for North America might miss the UK, giving them snow.  We are really looking at a few weeks for heat, but I don't know where it is coming from.