Last winter, the Gulf Stream wobbled and warmed up the section along Greenland. This stopped any Arctic cold air spill from hitting the UK and stopped ice formation.
The winter before, that whole section was filled. So, this winter started quite low on the ice extent, but the total volume was up there. That means the ice spread out less, but was thicker, and now is slow to melt. This will cause Arctic cold blobs of air to come down on Toronto for the early summer.
The Gulf Stream is not doing this now, so we can expect more ice in that zone, and the Arctic air spill channel is now open. I expect a spill over the UK this winter, and it will be something. Or not.
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