Geofish Sabbatical

I'm going to force a break until Sept 6 when the new world temp charts are out.

A summary:  I had a big audience when I showed the warm air of Europe smashing against Greenland.  That air eventually surrounded the place and gave it a one-day heatwave that we are still reading about.

All the physics points to a colder and colder time for the North.  Yuck, get your house in order. 

Earthquakes remain at an all-time low, making it boring for me.

My readers are also affected by intense boredom and are dropping off like flies.  I love you, Penny, my last reader.  Bye for now.

Funniest news article of the month

Reference

I find this hilarious.  Most people  wouldn't.  Liberal arts majors go into teaching because they don't want to be uberdrivers.  It's a good living.  And there are the politicians who control things, and they are all lawyers.

Imagine a world with a math culture.  People would know the difference between an exponential and a linear plot.  They would ask for uncertainties when English Majors make pronouncements on temperature rise.  There would actually be logic in the world.

This will come to an ignoble end.  All the non-mathers will rise and say "We don't need no stinkin' math and physics'.  However, I wish them the best of luck.

Carbon Dioxide Curve is Flattening

There is a good hypothesis that global ocean warming will raise co2.  This could be tested, but it won't be.  On the reverse, global cooling will affect the trend.

So, you take the edge of a piece of paper and apply it along the curve.  You can see in the 60's we may have gone up to an exponential of 2, that is a quadratic.  As we go more recent, we can put the edge on a longer section, and it is linear.

A magnification of the recent years shows that the linear slope may be flattening.  The English Majors of No Math, will fall back on the fact that it is still rising. 

This is not a trumpie or warmie pronouncement.  It is just interesting, and is a good hypothesis for further testing.

Brutal Winter for Toronto

Reference

The winter will continue the trend of an ice age of some sort.  But now the El Nino is gone.  As I've said before, I just hope we go into a regular 20 year cycle, like the 70s.  This should give Toronto some -30 time, and Georgian Bay should be -40.  Ah, the winter camping of my youth.

There is a 10% chance we'll break through the bottom of the 'minor ice age', and go to a 'major ice age', the 300 year cycle.  I won't be around to see that.  :)

Well, he seemed so low that I couldn't say no; then he says with a sort of moan:
"It's the cursed cold, and it's got right hold till I'm chilled clean through to the bone.
Yet 'tain't being dead -- it's my awful dread of the icy grave that pains;
So I want you to swear that, foul or fair, you'll cremate my last remains."

...

And there sat Sam, looking cool and calm, in the heart of the furnace roar;
And he wore a smile you could see a mile, and he said: "Please close that door.
It's fine in here, but I greatly fear you'll let in the cold and storm --
Since I left Plumtree, down in Tennessee, it's the first time I've been warm."

Just shut the damn door for me!

In the meantime, the Arctic ice volume chart is getting ragged at the minimum.

Prepare for a slew of warmie press when it hits the minimum.  Much more energy is at the top, and I expect it to beat 2017 without the EN to slow it.

The weekly ocean currents show nothing new.  There is a weak reversal in the Pacific, and the Atlantic flow to the south has its ups and downs.  We can make fun of the UK with their 3 day heatwave, the only warmth of their summer.

ps.  in the winter, Toronto lives on road salt.  Below -10C salt is ineffective. 

World's best snorkel

Since I like snorkelling, I've been following the 'full face snorkel' controversy for some time.    There is a ton of physics in this.  Basically, the first version was just a full face mask with a snorkel tube.  That ended up killing people, or knocking them out because the large volume did not allow for the co2 to clear.  Thus you were breathing back your breath.

Now we have a new version which looks like Antman.  It has two tubes, will ball valves.  There is an inner mask for breathing.  So you suck in with the tubes, and breath out with the front valve.  Neat.  There is an amazing little valve for draining water.

You can jog with this one, although someone will call the police.  We've tested it at the cottage, and all say they will never go back to an original snorkel.  It is good for shallow dives, but the large volume adds buoyancy.  You come up and breath again, you don't need to blow tubes.  My son could do a full front-crawl sprint with it.  His girlfriend could swim hard, but not a sprint.

We used it to clear weeds.  I'm taking it on my next trip.  For my wife I ordered a pink one.




I just added the cheap action camera, which fits on the snorkel.

Arctic ice minimum gives the best look at Arctic current

The current that is freezing the UK right now is showing best right now.

You can't measure the current under the ice, easily.  This is showing that the current is a result of freezing and thawing the Arctic ice.  You can see that there is a net flow out from the North Pole area.  The mechanism is unknown.  However, if I were trumply I would measure the flow and salinity, and see if it changes with the seasons.

This current gets stronger when the ice freezes, so my hypothesis would be that the current is strongly saline.  The summer flow might be just leftovers from the winter.  Who knows?  That's the joy of the Scientific Method, as opposed to Kipling-esque 'Just So' stories after the fact.

My 10 readers can have as much fun as me in reading the warmie headlines.  The UK is crowing about 'Hottest Bank Holiday Ever'.  Their '3 week heatwave' that would rescue summer is a 3 day heatwave, as I thought.

These are the Atlantic surface temps.  They are showing the strongest flow south I've ever seen at this time of year.  The current maps are also showing a strong flow to the south.

The warm, moist air is avoiding the Amazon right now, giving rise to those fires.  A small hurricane is starting just to the north of S. America.  Every fire, flood, one day heatwave is just grist for the warmie mill.

ps.  since I predicted two years ago that the UK will be New Labrador (hypothesis correct), I must list all the things I have been wrong about.  In warmieville, being wrong is death, but I follow the Scientific Method where being wrong is great.  Wrong about:  Natural gas prices.  I thought a cold winter and running out of storage would zoom the prices.  Toronto real estate -  always wrong about that.  It will crash, but timing is everything.  Oklahoma earthquakes -- goes with natgas prices. 

The Mathematics of Approaching Zero

The Arctic ice volume goes up and down with the seasons.  Right now it is going down.  But it is crowded at the bottom.  The ice volume is getting closer to zero.  The fun part is that all the previous years are jammed at this point.

The warmie press is now making a big deal of melting, but everything is a hair's width from each other.  On the other hand, the maximum is open to the sky.  There is a much bigger spread.

A couple of storms can make a big difference in the minimum.  Right now we are going along a smooth curve, but the big minimum took a big turn at this point. 

In other news, the UK is having a 4 day heat-wave instead of the 3 weeks they were touting. 

A plume is just skimming them.  Perhaps they'll be lucky on the next one, so they can say they had a summer.  I don't wish the cold upon them, but without the Gulf Stream they are the same as Nfld.  Great for blueberries in September.  Yum.

As well, the press was going on about a warm plume hitting the Arctic for a day.  It looks like it faded out.

Now we come to September, which will be cold.  I look forward to what they can wring out of this.

Cottage report Aug. 22, 2019

Two days of hot Gulf air, and now it is very cool with a strong north wind.  This is August weather from the 70's.  A plume of hot Gulf air is zooming up the prairies to hit the Arctic.  This may drive down the minimum ice volume which will be a great joy for warmies.  They pick and choose, and ignore the charts.

Big white caps on the lake.  We did get an inch of rain, and are now digging up our potatoes.  It's the only thing that grows at the cottage.  The sandy soil is already totally dry and the potatoes come out like they were scrubbed.  The high mineral content and the compost from the compost toilet makes for a delicious potato.

Rocks grow the best.  The potato yield was less than the bag of seed potatoes.  :)

Saturday -- very calm.  The temp will go down to 4C, quite low for August.  I hate to think of the cold when we come Thanksgiving to close up.  However, the water is warm and I will take a dip tomorrow.

Back home on Sunday - a sunny and cool weekend.  I didn't go into the water today because it was cool. 

Warmyism begins to crack

Sudbury was lamenting the effects of a long, harsh winter, it was affecting house sales.

and amazingly we have this article by the CBC.  It essentially says that cold air is caused by cold air.

Reference

First of all, it mentions the very cold air.  And it never mentions carbon warming.  This is a first!  But that's all they'll say, because of the warmie gun to their heads.  Then they say this cold is only a random thing, that it will get warm again.  Ha!  But they don't go into any physics or charts, or cause. 

The warmies will go that 'Arctic melting' is causing the Godzilla Jet Stream to rise up and hit us.  I like that one.

Darlington headaches begin

Reference

It is standard practice at my old company to say everything is peachy until the last day when it is due.  Then it is delayed.  The worst is that every department does this on every little thing.

My main prediction is that this is a total disaster.  We'll only hear about it in dribs and drabs.  They are replacing things with the same recipe from 30 years ago, and that can't be done.  They are ignoring physics, and trying to keep with the original seismic specs.  None of that can be done. 

But luckily, I'll never hear about it so it won't get me upset.  The talking heads of the PR department will keep us amused.

Cottage report August 19, 2019

Old-school August weather.  Super hot for 3 days and then cool.  The cottage missed all the recent rains so it is quite dry.  A little rain would be good.

So far we are getting a traditional 70's summer.  By the end of the month it should get quite cool, and there will be a fire in the fireplace at night.

ps dog jumping

Ocean current report - Aug 16, 2019 -- The Arctic Current Returns

Not too shabby.  Last week I said it was at a minimum, and now there appears to be greater strength.  Of course, I may be seeing things, since there may not be enough floaters for this type of resolution.  In a couple of months we'll see a big difference.

This is the current that the warmies say is from all the melting ice of Greenland.

Greenland ice is dancing in the streets.  All those articles are from the one day it was warm.  Can't they have one warm day without all the commotion?  They are always measuring the salinity from this current, but the data records are hiding in warmie-land.  You would probably see high salinity for the current, the exact opposite of warmie fantasy.  nasa is probably sitting on it, just like they are sitting on anybody who says the ice is fine.

The problem with the ice sheets here and in Antarctica is that you can't penetrate the whole thing with radar and get a volume.  So, when the ice surges and breaks up on the sea you can't tell if it is just shedding excess weight.  Warmies see all that ice going into the ocean as 'melting', and raising sea levels.  Another great victory for anti-physics.  

So, if the UK has no summer, and a horrible 20 below winter, will that mean anything?  If world temps crash to the bottom, will the faith be broken?  No.  I have great faith in the power of faith, especially if money is involved.  Expect more stories like nasty jet streams and 'warming means cooling'.   Looking forward to it.

False hope for the UK to have a summer

They are hoping that this huge tropical plume hits them.

Not going to happen.  Without the Gulf Stream, the recent pattern has been for these things to go below the UK.  Again, the GS would always bring these plumes up north.

Meanwhile, our pattern is quite interesting.  A very high plume is pouring down cool air on us, but the air over Toronto is quite stagnant.  This gives us 'default' August weather, so we'll have another week or two of warm weather.  The huge Gulf plume is missing us.

ps.  the plume did go south of the UK but they expect it to curl around.  We'll see.

New Kansas earthquake and injection zone

Since they are practically giving away natgas, it's rare to see this.  Basically, some injection guy wants to make more money and he allows natgas frack waste.  This water is fresh, and agressive to the quartz in the deep rocks.  Soon earthquakes follow and he says "Wasn't me".

If I cared any more, then I would zoom with Googs on that spot and I would see an injection site.  La la.  Soon the old ladies around that zone will hit the guy with their canes.  Injection and earthquakes will stop.  Nobody will tell what they did.

ps.  another m4.  Those ladies that lose their Royal Dalton are going to kill him.

pps.  I did look, but the earthquakes are scattered due to poor seismometer coverage, and I couldn't find anything.  Probably means the injection site is new.

Costco has the Casada Power Board

Yeah, like all new exercise toys, this one is neat.  Whether it ends up in a dusty corner, is another matter.

I find exercise to be boring.  I can't stand it because my brain rejects 'boring' quite violently.  I can't do yoga because if I bend down, my scalp gets itchy.  I read that up and it's a deadly brain tumour.  Oh well.

This is from Germany, and it is promoted by bikini models, yeah!  The good thing about Costco is that we can use it for a while and then take it back.  That's important for all these things, since the body reacts to anything new, like you are trying to poison it.  Then you feel great for 2 weeks as all the 'fight or flight' chemicals flood into your body.  If it actually works after 2 weeks then you are golden.  This is true for all the wacky cures and supplements.

Also, you can collect a huge number of testimonials if it only works for 1 out of 10.

Does this work with the first two days?  Oh yeah!  I feel jiggly all over.  If there is physics, it's that you are riding a horse, your muscles attempt to maintain balance.  Thus, they say that the exercise is concentrated by a factor of six, and I would love that to be true.

Lets just imagine that world hasn't been Goopified, and you wanted to test it.  Your hypothesis would be that the exercise is concentrated.  How would you confirm or deny it?  Needless to say it hasn't been done, and it may be impossible because of the psychological factors.  So, get it from Costco and use it for two weeks.  Keep the packaging.  Don't feel guilty, because there isn't a speck of scientific testing.


** something like $900 buckeroos.

ps.  wow, a little jiggle before you go to bed puts you right out.

pps.  Nov. 30, 2019.  Costco has it back.  We use it all the time to loosen everything up.  If I get cold outside, just 1 minute warms me up.

more: Jan, 2020.  If you want to jiggle and be happy, look how sea level is going down again.  

Arctic ice volume - strongest inflection change, ever

My old guy lambasted me for being inscrutable.  He says I think too fast for anybody, and things just zoom over their heads.  I don't mind that, otherwise I'd be in FB all the time, and the warmie heavy guns would be after me.  As it is, I am safely buried with the other cranks.

All the media is now full of 'ice minimum' stories, mainly using the worse projections and saying that all the Arctic ice will vanish at the September minimum.

But, the chart has made a tremendous change of curvature (2nd derivative) .  Now, I don't expect anybody to know calculus, but this is a big deal.  Could you see a warmie mentioning calculus?  Or energy balance, heat flow, convection.  Nope, it's all selective facts, and 'just so' stories.  That's how you make money.

The point is that I couldn't convince my own dog, using the warmie rules of debate.  All I can do is stay with the Scientific Method, and let others suffer the consequences of leaving it.  If I had money, then I would put out my hypothesis, and test it.  It would pass or fail.  If it failed, I would lose my entire scientific career and be on the streets begging for more money.  Very pitiful.  :)

Ocean current report - Aug 11, 2019

The main reason for this series is to note the changes in ocean currents over the years.  99% of heat flow in the Earth is carried by ocean currents.

This is showing the Atlantic belt.  In a very short time, the heat is going south again.  This time it is quite strong, and early.  Buy long underwear.

This just shows that all reversals have stopped in the Pacific.  If you look at a few months earlier, you would have seen the full El Nino in all its glory.

Finally we have the new villian in the piece.  This is the Arctic current coming around Greenland.  The warmies make up the story that this is all from Greenland melting, yet it is at a miniumum right now.  The only article on the Gulf Stream blames everything on the melt water.  Look at last winter and the coming one to see it strengthen.  It's been around only since the last big El Nino went bust.

The warmie Guardian now has lots of articles about Greenlanders weeping for their lost ice.  They had a one-day heat wave (just above freezing) and the warmies are still pumping that for all its worth. Now everything is normal.  At ice minimum, all the Arctic is enjoying summer (1 deg C).

The UK can no longer grow warm-weather crops - global warming to blame

Reference

Sorry UK, but it's back to peas and turnips.  That's what you get when Winter strikes in August.  And next year it will worse.  Strike cauliflower off the menu for good.  Europe always gets a short heatwave from the Sahara that kills everything, and they'll probably get one next year.

Yeah, freezing cold, tornadoes, thunderstorms, it's all due to warming.

ps.  I'm now rolling in tomatoes, and the broccs are starting to broccolize.

pps.  they are declaring the end of summer for Europe, even though they did have a short heat wave.  Can't wait for the warmie comment.

Arctic ice volume firmly following the median band

I am fascinated by this.  The minimum is cruising along the median band.  The port of Churchill can now get the grain carriers out.  The news went on about the Alaska ice going, but that always happens.  It will be difficult to colour the ice volume news.  I predict the line will cut into the median band and should hit the centre this winter.  Next year will be exceed the median.  Yeah, don't we just love ice and more ice?

The Dead Gulf Stream Finally Makes the News

Reference

Yeah, it has finally been mentioned in the popular press.  I knew they could never mention it unless the fact could be blamed on the climate crisis.  Now they are making things up like the melting glaciers of Greenland, and the wandering jet stream.  None of which is correct, but it sounds good.

Of course they don't mention that no GS means a frozen UK, but what the heck?

I'm just glad it has been mentioned, and those nasa guys have been pulled off monitoring growing Greenland glaciers.  As long as nobody studies them, it can be assumed they are fading away.

This is not a conspiracy.  This is just everybody jumping on a bandwagon that makes them lots of money.

And although a hotter Florida, it means a colder north -- not mentioned.  It's not even a hotter Florida, if people would look at the mechanism, they just make stuff up.

Canadians to starve to death, by staying warm

Not going to be our problem.  It's ironic that at some point, we must celebrate the discovery of winter wheat.  That's what stopped us from starving to death.  Also, there was the discovery of making ammonia.  That also stopped us from starving to death.  When we are enjoying super hot summers, we are not starving to death over our Pina Coladas.

But, we are not warm.  Our seasons have gone back to the original two:  Winter and July.  And not even the whole of July, perhaps just two weeks.

Right now I am watching the Gales of November on the lake.  There are huge whitecaps, and I must hide once in a while from freezing sunshowers.  Not my idea of summer.

ps.  No matter how miserable our summers will be from now on, we can laugh at the UK right now.

That looks like a winter storm they are dealing with.  I love it because they are the 'Heart of Darkness' when it comes to destroying the Scientific Method.  Everything is a debate now.  As well, the trumpies want to Preach Hate and make money, so they've picked sunspots, and conspiracies.  All us average people will just freeze.  Sad.

The Gales of November Come Early - Cottage Report August 8, 2019

We followed the cold front all the way to the cottage.  Now it has stopped raining and it's dang chilly.  I hope we don't need a fire.  We are supposed to be in the 'Dog Days of Summer', not freezing.  Anyway, I can keep warm burning all the news from the warmies.  Such a fuss over one-day heatwaves, and dried-up glaciers.

You can see the cold air swooping down on us.  We have to hope that a little more warmth comes up from the Gulf.

ps. I was reading about California beaches disappearing, and the idea of 'retreat'.  The house owners go nuts at that word.  But Callie is a tectonic soup, some places go up and some down.  They all think it's massive glaciers melting, but it's their own tectonics.  Maybe they need an earthquake to get their minds off the beaches.  :)

pps.  this week the warmies were taking credit for all floods, all droughts, and airplane turbulence.  Amazing.

Friday - nasty storms hitting, quite cold air hitting us.

Saturday - cool but sunny, looks like warm Gulf air will come in for a day.

Sunday - warm and windy, can't put up the shade tent on the dock.  Looks to be the last hot day of the year.  Caught quite a few bass with a good fight on my tiny rod, but they all went back

Toronto real estate is still sad

Housing is failing, but condos are defying gravity.  Condos can't keep going up if all the rest is declining.  Rich people are buying condos like gold, and sealing them up.  Keep building more condos and see if you can stuff these guys.  :)  I know that I keep seeing endless condo cranes.

After the El Nino, global temperatures start to fall

Yeah, the warmies are against physics.  Physics always wins in the long term because you can freeze to death.

This is the new month global temperature chart.  Global temps have shed off the EN, and are falling.

A zoom of the chart shows the big 2016 en, and the effect of our recent long and low en.

But the north polar chart is amazing, since this is the dang summer.

So we can expect lots of ice this year for the polar bears.

The US chart shows weird things, like big peaks in January, but our summer has been generally average over the past 2 years.

ps. our UK friends should get used to this plume pattern, straight east.  The Gulf Stream used to have influence to raise the plumes to hit the UK.  Now, it is eternal winter.

Ocean current report - Aug 5, 2019

The  main value in these charts is to observe the changing patterns.  In terms of heat energy, these ocean current movements are orders of magnitude above anything else.  That's the trouble when people point out carbon or sun spots, they don't compare with the other processes.  This is a horrible error in physics, but who needs physics anyway, when we've got the media?

The Atlantic had it's fun giving us warmth, and now it is moving the heat back south.  A fun winter.  There is enough heat in the Caribbean for a few hurricanes, and the warmies will have fun.  Drought, flooding and storms are all a part of uniform warming -- yeah.

That's why I like showing these charts, there is no 'smoking gun'.  All the charts have to be looked at over a period of time.  The Pacific reversal is now stopped, it used to extend over the whole ocean.  All our temperatures are determined by the dynamics of the ocean systems.  If physics were back in fashion, it would be easy to show.

This El Nino is dead

This is the Enso Oni index.  It gives some idea that an El Nino is happening, but doesn't indicate the total energy and effect on world temperatures.  This was a long and low en, with a lot of energy.  It caused a small blip in world temps, starting last October and ending now, where you can see it collapsing.

Even with this en going at full blast, we hit the second highest Arctic ice volume, right behind last year.  Wait until you see what we hit this year.  For Europe and the UK, it is the end of summer.

The Arctic is taking control of temps.  The warmies will have to find something else, other than blaming El Nino temps on carbon.  On the downside, they are quick to blame the en collapse.  Such fun.

In Toronto, we have some more Gulf air coming at us.  Nice summer.

ps.  the UK is hilarious now with the tabloids shouting about a 20C 'heatwave'. 

Cottage Report - Aug 1, 2019

The weather is in a classic 70's August.  At the beginning, we get hot sun at 28, then below 15 at night.  By the end of August, we won't be getting any more 'record breaking' days.  It's lovely up at the cottage, cool nights and the water is warm.  Almost no bugs.  You can just float on a mattress all day.

This weekend we have our annual regatta on the lake.  Lots of fun for the little kids.

This was 2012 with my two sons, cousins and friends
The slowest swimmer won.

ps. Saturday we have small thunderstorms which have broken our drought, yeah!

pps.  sunday, all my kids helped with the kiddie fun fair, face painting, etc.  over 50 kids.  then we went on our annual party boat cruise.  I had to pee over the back.  Lots of fun.

Greenland back to normal

Yesterday, Greenland went over freezing for a day.  The warmies went ballistic. 

Now, it is all back to normal. and the 'ice lock' is back.  You won't read that anywhere.