Sunday, May 10, 2020

Arctic ice volume stuck in a holding pattern

All winter we've had a strong Pacific current pushing over the North Pole.  That created the big thin channel down the middle.  What's weird is that the ice volume curve has gone flat and is tearing into the old lines.  Another sign that it's cold.

The chart represents ice volume for this year (black) and the ice volume curve for previous years.  Arctic ice volume is the most reliable ice chart since satellite radar can penetrate it and get a daily volume.  It has a nice floor of saltwater to bounce back the signal.

The continental ice sheets like Greenland and Antarctica do not give such a clean signal.  So, when they say that ice is losing volume, it is the usual warmie story.

If we are starting an ice age, then that black line goes right through the other curves, and sets a new summer record.  Eventually the Arctic ice packs up all year.  Then the ice starts on land and stays all summer.  Good thing that won't really happen.  But we can easily have a cycle that feels just as cold, like the famous 'Little Ice Age'.

In a few thousand years, when all the land bounces back up from the last ice advance, we will have a new ice advance during a major ice age cycle, and then it locks in.  That's my hypothesis, easily tested with physics.

No comments: