Monday, December 1, 2008

The Perils of a Precisely Specified Earthquake Scenario

Article - Earthquake drill fizzles out at the fringes

The great shakeout earthquake drill in California was notable for it's precision in specifying the scenario. This led to a fairly exact forecast of the shaking in each neighbourhood. But the interest died for any area just outside the hot spots. It's as though somebody just dodges the terrorist bullet, and says "Whew, I don't have to think about that again!"

Now, do they follow up with more specific scenarios? Do they have all of California shaking at once? That's a very interesting talking point, and I would love to be in that discussion.

Of course, then we have Toronto which doesn't have the remotest clue.

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