We are waiting for the banks to give up propping

 

As with the Great Fall of Japan, we are waiting for the government and banks to throw in the towel.  This will result in the "cleansing fire" of a housing crash.  It's better than limbo.

Already, 30% of the houses in the neighbourhood are empty, with pathetic attempts to make them look occupied.  We have some nice rental property that is empty, because it is not nice to rent to people who will never pay.

Once we have the crash, it would be best that we have a rental system that is quick with cases of malfeasance.  I understand the bleeding hearts, but it does no good to have no rentals available.

I entitle this "The Bear Market of Sinking Property"

Toronto caught in a cold pincer movement

 

Again this year, we have the strange 'air from the east' thing.  This time it is curling right around us.  We had beautiful weather when this isolated a pocket of stagnant air in September and October.  Now, not so hot.  We have very cold coming from the north.

This strange eastern air is going around the 'permanent' Hudson Bay cyclone.  That is a giant steam engine running off the extra heat energy in the water, from this year's warmth.  Might go on for a while.

The Arctic is fully charged and ready to go.

The residual heat in the Atlantic is finally leaving us, and all the tropical plumes don't have the energy to get up to the Arctic any more.

Get ready for the wild ride.  I'm a bit late on my prediction this would happen in October.  The residual heat flummoxed me.

ps. Dry Guy is soaked.  This is the best image I could do, since googs doesn't do people yet, without a lot of extra money.

I wanted more of a Spanish setting, but, what the hey.

Ignace drilling results hidden behind paywall

 

Darn, I really wanted to see how they dressed up the huge fractures, that are always in this type of rock.  I suppose they are going to try to find a space between all of them.  They are only showing the small pieces of good core.  This leaves me out of everything, as they will do the same for Bruce.  

For the last site, you couldn't comment on their selective vision, because that is considered normal for this sort of thing.  

Huge Arctic blob does an end-run past Toronto

 

This is big.  Right down the coast to hit Florida.  It's also a new thing.  

Meanwhile, the tropics are going up a bit.  Most likely, this is due to cyclone activity, which always bumps things this time of year.

Once the cyclones are gone, we should continue the dive.  No heating events right now for the Pacific equatorial belt.  That last one was so big that it should suppress all future events for a while.

Poor Spain got hammered in the south.  You can see the cyclone.

We'll have to see if Dry Guy got his toes wet.

ps you can see that a messy clipper is coming down for Toronto after the 31st.

Bruce throws hat in the nuclear ring

 

This will now be endless amusement for us, as it competes with Ignace.  I have no idea on the Ignace geology.  When I was doing my heavy research on nuclear waste, I found that any site with exposed granitic bedrock had the horrible problem of 'glacier jacking'.  These were mile-deep near-flat open fractures caused by high glacier water pressure.

If you went below these, then you would get the 'pure stresses' of the Canadian Shield.  Horrible high horizontal stresses that would cause rock-bursts.  A generally bad condition.  Of course, since I never bothered with Ignace, I'm sure it is perfect.

Bruce has the problem of a huge deep basement fault (the Grenville Front).  They are right on the outcrop of the fault, but they have managed to look the other way.  These outcrops damage rock for a long distance away, as shown by the seismic reflection records which they never looked at.  I find that everything is perfect when you have the wonderful blinkers of selective vision.  

Both sites are absolutely wonderful, and the people can enjoy an economic benefit.

ps.  for both places, we should have rom-coms - Love in the Nuclear Waste.

Full cold blob comes down on Toronto

 

It's just starting to get cleanly defined on the mimic.  

At this time of year, we always get a cyclone near Hudson Bay.  

ps. poohey.  Looks like I'm going to miss my 'Snow in October' prediction.  Thank goodness.

Atlantic cold channel appears briefly this month

 

Both on the straight sea surface temp and the anomaly videos.  In the Atlantic, just above the equator, you can see the main cold channel from the Arctic to the equator.  This always goes deep along the bottom of the ocean.  The fact that you can see it means the Atlantic warm zone may be breaking up.  All our warmth right now is stored in the northern oceans.  This is a big left-over from our warm cycles.  There is no warmth in the southern oceans.

I just mention this as confirmation that things are happening.  Of course, nobody is measuring anything related to physics, so I am groping for straws here.

Noaa world temperatures finally fall below 2016

 

This is my 'all months' plot which is more consistent with past results.  It shows that the last heating event was huge, and we still have a lot of residual heat.  You saw that on yesterday's plot of the world sea temperature anomaly plot.  The entire south is cold, and the north is hot.  

The north is not getting any new heat energy and must continue to cool.  The mechanism of how the Earth picks up solar heat in spurts is unknown.  I have my ideas, but there is no physics being measured.  At least we have a paper indicating that we are not picking up heat right now.

Cold spreads over Canada

 

This is just a slow creep, up against southern air.  A Pacific plume is about to hit the Yukon, and this usually turns into a clipper.  Greenland is in its full glory.

Toronto cooling degree days close for 2024 at the lowest since 2015

 

This is exciting as 'cooling degree days' are the most important measure of 'boiling to death' in terms of the warmie apocalypse.  Not single hot days, or desert weather, etc.  This is really the only measure.

And it is dropping for Toronto, which means our air conditioning bills are theoretically not as high as they could be.  I'm expecting it to continue to drop, even though we will have 1950-style super heat waves.  It's just that summer will only last a month.

Heating degree days haven't changed much except for last year, which was exceptional.  I'm expecting this to start climbing.  This affects our natgas heating bill.

ps. this is probably the way the cookie will crumble.  More and more cold, and little scientific articles showing up with lots of warmie sops, but with a killer message.  I can't wait for the next one.

Ocean warmth a puzzle of residual heat

 I think one thing I have gotten wrong is the half-time of residual heat in the oceans.  That means, it is taking a heck of a longer time cooling off.

This may account for the 'drift' of the N. Hemi, as opposed to the south.  In the sea surface temperature anomaly plot, the extra warmth has been going for some time.  It is slowly decreasing, though.

This chart shows how the little section about Iceland is cooling.  This section is critical for the UK winter temperatures.  Note how the majority of the Gulf Stream is now hitting below Spain.  I haven't seen it this low before, so that's a new thing.

A huge Arctic current is developing, which will go down the side of Greenland.  A warm streamer was going way up north, but has curved below Svalbard and has abandoned our little section.  We should see this all freeze up soon.  The Gulf Steam has served as a switching gate up here for a long time.  If there is lots of warm water, the Arctic spills will not go down this potential spillway.  If the gate is open, the cold cows all wander out.

 

You can see here that Antarctica is the only zone without a huge drift.  It has stayed in a narrow band.

However, the Arctic has a big drift.  I have to go with the idea that all this drift will go away eventually, but I don't know when.  

ps. welcome to a new family-member reader!  

Arctic getting all guns ready for another broadside

 

Europe is still feeding in warm air, but I'm going by the Greenland Signal.  

Arctic ice freezing up fast

 

Arctic ice extent has some topographical issues, because it isn't some big circle, it has to freeze against other forces.

There might still be some action with the Gulf Stream sending up warm water.  That inflection point in the ice extent graph is when the leading edge of the ice hits that warm zone.  If it is a banner year, this year, as I expect, the graph will charge right through that bend.  The fact that the ice extent is so low right now, is because of the residual heat from last year (being so warm).  We'll see.

The main prediction is that the ice extent will go over the Svalbard, and N. Zemlya, This has always announced the coming of the Little Ice Age (okay, once in recorded history for that area).  

ps. new article.  Too much sop to the warmies.  They only have the Arctic not rising to 10C, but only 8C.  My hypothesis of a Little Ice Age, has it going straight down.

Arctic slowly building up to full recharge

 

It is still warmer than usual, according to the anomaly charts, but there is a big European warm feed right now.  

This will push out cold air on us.

However, we could get some Pacific air.

This is an interesting article that I can't afford to look at.  They start with all the usual sops to the warmies, but then cut them off at the knees.  However, they do not put up a mechanism, or a hypothesis.

Anti-trust for billionaires

 

This is the year for billionaires behaving badly.  The US went into a big anti-trust frenzy a long time ago with the railroad barons.  Now, we have must worse.  Instead of going after Googs, they should go after the big guys.  Much like monopolies, they have too much power, and then go crazy.

Warmies are people, too

 

I am very sorry for any distress caused to warmies, by my non-read blog.  They bleed from the heart.

Apparently, bully scientists are giving them a hard time. 

Arctic impact shut down by cyclonic action

 The little spurt of Arctic air is all our cold for now.

The Arctic is mild again.  No white light on Greenland.

We have a huge amount of cyclonic action, which happens a lot in the autumn seasonal turnover.  Arctic flows will continue, once this settles out.  I haven't heard too much weather fantasy lately.  They have been whumped on the head for the La Nina fiasco, and the Florida hurricanes have their facilities sogged down.  

Without Laninny, we'll have to go back to the Jet Stream Extreme explanations for the cold.  They've trotted out that old horse too many times now, and the tickies are getting bored.  Live by social media, die by ....

ps. you can see the Arctic was having a bump 6 days ago

Those huge bumps of last year cannot be repeated.  If they are, I'll eat my long underwear...

Starting the accelerometer projects again

 When we used to have earthquakes, I was heavily into making useful instruments.  The thing that has changed is that sensitive accelerometer testing boards are now 2 bucks, and I can have AI write Python programs.  

I am convinced that earthquake engineering has lost its way, or that nobody builds anything anymore, with the concept of earthquake resistance.  When earthquakes finally come back, we are going to see incredible destruction, and everybody will accuse me of being ghoulish.  

Every building should have lots of 2 buck accelerometers all over the place.  You can calculate the baseline response, and if there is an earthquake, you have proof of damage.  At the moment, it is just 'hand waving' on whether to allow a building to be used again.

So, I will continue my fruitless quest.

The four horsemen of Toronto weather

 Our weather is mucky right now, so I thought I'd go into the basics for a minute.  My AI scraping is starting to calm down again, but I can still try to confuse the darn things.

We have three main horsemen for the weather.  My favourite this time of year is the Arctic outbreak.  This comes in two forms.  We have been hit a lot this year by the Arctic Blob.  This is a true 'air glacier' in that it takes up the entire atmosphere from bottom to top, and has its own physical properties, like a true object.  It comes down with kinetic energy and momentum, and sweeps all the stagnant air away.

If there is moist air around, like a few times this summer, then it produces the worst storms and rainfalls.  Just think of our floods this year.  it has nothing to do with heat, and clange, but everything to do with the impact of this cold air.

The second form of cold air is the 'Alberta Clipper'.  It's when there is a big tropical plume hitting the Yukon and dragging down cold air.  This cold air is not a glacier, but a cold knife hugging the land.  It comes in clear, and the rain comes afterwards from the Pacific air.

The Pacific air is Horseman #2.  It used to come a lot, but is now quite rare, due to the lack of heat energy on the Pacific equatorial belt.

Our major warmth comes from the South, as Horseman #3.  If it lingers over Toronto, we get incredible soggy, humid heatwaves that can last for weeks.  Haven't had those in the last few years.

We've now had two episodes of Horseman #4, the winds from the East.  They are very rare, and I wouldn't even mention them, except this might be a new pattern.  We have a lovely stagnant pocket of warm clear air.  I loved September at the cottage this year.

I am expecting nothing but Arctic blobs this winter.  If all goes according to plan, then we'll hit 30 below in Toronto, and the lakes will freeze, at least Huron and Erie.  Of course, like last year, there are always things to disrupt the major forces.

Yes Virginia, there is no La Nina anymore

 The Aussies and Yale have it right, the cycles, they are a changing.

We know why - simple physics that the weather people turn a blind eye to.  With the new ocean circulation determining the ice cycle, we don't have that old stuff anymore.

Cold continues to blow away the hurricanes

 

This is messy and weak, with Pacific air.  We could get warm again in Toronto.

For the long term, we have general flatness in the N. Hemi.  Those bumps on the bottom of the curve gave us the nice winter.  

The lack of heat from the tropics will give us a cold winter.  But we are still in the general drift of higher temperatures, that we might not see this winter.  I continue to think of a calibration drift, but we'll find out.  If we have 70's weather this winter, then it will confirm the satellite temperature results need work.

ps note that there are two types of storms that might hit BC - the northern one is a spill of very cold air hitting the ambient temperature, the other is a classic atmospheric river storm.  The media will mix them both.

Atmospheric rivers have a minute of fame

 Doom-scrolling the news and all of sudden there were a ton of articles on how the atmospheric rivers are going to raise sea level to 'twice as much'.  Then I thought a few hours later, I would capture some headlines, and it was all gone.

A tropical plume picks up the water from the sea, and then drops the water when it encounters a cold blob.  Everything is neutral.  But these headlines were amazing.  I'm glad somebody watches for this.

Very intense cold spear comes down on Toronto

 

This is great physics.  On the mimic, you can't see much.  There is no blob with a clear edge, and we have the Pacific intrusion that isn't coming down as a clipper, yet.  You just see it on the 'minimum temp' plot.  It has to be coming very fast to cut through all that warmth and freeze us in the afternoon, according to the weather people.

Gather in the tomatoes, this is a 'freezer' for sure.

ps.  Since I'm the only unpopular blog that doesn't use AI, my hits have gone up to 12k per day, but no sign of life.  That's those darn AI scrapers, and they'll soon drop me when they realize what I am doing to them.  That's why those big billion-dollar AI's are doomed, they are forced to eat their own poop.

ps. the intensity of the spear is more obvious on the wind video.

This is coming in very low, so it will hit this afternoon, but the warm weather will take days to clear.  The fun of 3 dimensions.

Toronto lithium batteries conk out

 

At least they aren't catching on fire.  There's no big hurry here, because they are charging twice as much for water, if a battery conks out.  

They expected these batteries to last for 20 years, but they are only lasting 10, which is darn good for lithium.  What were they smoking for the 20 year promise?  Good thing, these new guys are smart and can blame the old guys.  They'll probably go for 20 years again.

Lithium batteries are a horrible chemistry.  They are going to promise 20 years for the new solid-state batteries -- ha.  Toyota is getting 20 years for the nimh batteries in my hybrid, but that's rechargeable.  For the meters, they wanted 20 years with no charge.  Totally new engineering.

Go for the nuclear gold!

 

A fine picture of farmland.  They have a choice between stagnation, and all the kids leaving, one way or another, and lots of money.  I say go for it, since it will never be built anyway.

This is just like when Bruce wanted to build a nuclear plant on Lake Erie.  Physics finally caught up with that.  I always loved nuclear plants because, at one time, you could cower the power-people by saying "Stupidity means no plant".  These days, you can't do that.  But you can say to the people - "Stupidity means no waste storage."

I especially like that they must sink a shaft to stop looking stupid to stupids.  You can never a call stupid people 'stupid' because that's the one thing they know, and they put up a vicious fight.  Instead, they ignore you, and you ignore them.

We had to use the entire output of the cement plant to dig some shallow tunnels at Bruce.  All that cement powder is being used, right now, to raise giant condos that will never be filled.  That should stop soon, leaving lots of cement for this.

The big problem is that the rock is so open, that all the grout in the world doesn't help.  But, they will do it anyway, because it's the only thing to do.  Lots of work, lots of money.  At the end, we accepted that the Bruce tunnels were as leaky as a sieve, because they were intake tunnels, anyway.  You can't take nice pictures of a nuclear waste site, in the rain.

You can see here that all the water is off to the side, and can be ignored.  A nuclear waste site must have 'diffusion conditions', but most people are trying to avoid that by hand-waving.  There is only one site in the world I've seen that totally diffusion, and that's politically a no-no.