Physics shorts 2 -- energy

 I'll do these until I run out of energy.

Physics shorts - 1 - Heat

 Doing this on youtube for fun.  Can't wait to get the hate mail.

Europe gets our old warmth

 

I said last time that our stagnant warm air was going on a trip to Europe.

There's a huge cold air blob pushing it, so paradise won't last.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, there is a very powerful plume hitting BC.  Although they are up to their knees in water, the press still says 'Drought-stricken BC'.  This plume is so strong that it is leaking over the mountains, giving Alberta snow.  In Toronto, we are getting a speck of warm Gulf air, giving us rain.

Linux -- KDE Pulseaudio and Pipewire fight

 Turns out you can't run pulse and pipe.  They fight horribly.  However, it turns out that earlier versions of KDE used pulse.  I installed with the Debian installer and only used KDE5, but the 'stable' version has pulse.  Blah.

I finally had to install without any desktop.  That allowed me to set 'sources.list' to sid, and then install KDE.  Seems to be better now.  The best test, or worst, is to try and use Google Meet on Linux.  I may have it working.

ps. didn't work in getting Google Meet going.

Predicted housing crash a big snooze

 

Mortgage rates have tripled or whatever, and nothing is happening.  Even before the pandemic, remote housing had halved in value.  Then came the Great Exodus from Toronto, and still nothing.

In the good old days, banks were quick to foreclose and kick the people out.  Then they would put out the houses at distressed prices.  People would sell at low prices to avoid the banks.  The house prices were set by the lowest prices that sold.

But not now.  There is a buyer and seller strike.  Nothing is moving and it defies all the physics of money flow.  Nobody is  buying, but they want to rent, and the rents are zooming.  So, here comes the physics hypothesis, easily proven right or wrong in the next few months.

Hypothesis - Banks are mucking with the system.  Physics is the study of fundamental forces, and money wants to flow when it is free.  If it's not flowing, then it is tied up, and we have 'limbo', which is the same condition Japan faced after the big property crash, because the banks couldn't let go.

We are in limbo because the banks can't foreclose and kick everybody out.  Ever since the pandemic, nobody has been paying the mortgage.  The banks just merrily pile on the debt and say it will be fine once housing starts doubling again every year.

I'm saying any of this is happening, it's just a hypothesis, but banks can also engineer a phoney foreclosure, which is to take the house at peak prices, and allow the former owners to live there, low rent or rent-free.  The banks know that the first real foreclosure will cause a panic, tons of empty houses, and prices dropping to nothing.  

The hypothesis is only proven by history.  Sooner or later, as with Japan, this 'charity' becomes unsustainable.  We get a crash much bigger than we would have got, had we just let things go free.  Prices go down by half or more.  This is only a year or two of recent gains.  I generally expect things to be worse.  However, nothing will happen as long as we have our fine limbo, probably until the Spring.

ps. Symbolic Picture

House under construction, not touched for years.  Lost in the Fog of Limbo.

Canada saves lots of money

 

I don't think it was on purpose.  If they only put a sliver of that money into physics, then we would save a lot more.

I don't deny the Popular People and their group-think.  It's amazing how it keeps on ticking.  Our big summer heat waves are caused by the ocean heat flow giving out.  If you have stagnant air in the summer, it's Death Valley all over the place.  They will never run out of stories.  And if the press ignores all the stories about freezing to death, we'll have this forever.

In fact, there is an automatic response to any stories about cold -- "This doesn't deny clange."  and the story with heat waves and hurricanes -- "This is caused by clange."  In fact, I don't see how the group-think can be shattered by any degree of cold.  

Cool, clear weather for now

 

This is the weather pattern that gives BC huge rains, and loses all the moisture going over the Rocky Mountains.  In Toronto, we get cool, clear weather.  This keeps away both the warm Gulf air, and the Arctic air glaciers.  

The Pacific plume patterns have been changing day by day, and who knows how long this will last?

Ammie Loves Sauron

 Reference

No great comment here.  They didn't release names, by accident, but they have them.  I just like the name of the server.  

ps.  

Amazon stock tanks 20% after revenue and guidance miss expectations

ps.  it will be sad for me that they can't subsidize the prices with the stock market values.  

Toronto heating degree days

 This is something that hits our pockets, although with natgas doubling in price, it may be irrelevant.  The extent and 'coldness' of a winter can be defined by degree days.

This is an interesting chart.  You can't count the last one, because the year isn't over.  Expect it to go up.  However, 2021 is high.  If I actually cared I would magnify the tiny percent difference because that makes good lip-flapping.  Always choose and modify your charts, if you want to make money.

We will start rising up to the 70's.  Neat.

ps.  cooling degree days

Ha, our air conditioning bills are going down, despite all the lip flapping about 'summer from hell'.  They just pump up that story by selecting stories.  A great job.

Physics Forecast -- The Swirly Mess

 The ocean plumes and currents are chaotic.  That means they are so sensitive to unknown initial conditions that we can't predict anything.  It's the same with earthquakes.  All you can do is put a box around the chaotic part and look at smoother signals.

For earthquakes you can tell general things like whether there is more activity or less.  However, you can't narrow it down to anything useful.  Those who like to be Popular People make up fantasies that are blown up with the next earthquake.

It's the same thing with weather forecasts.  There is an inherent limit to precision, and PP's exploit this by going way out on a limb.  Since nobody checks anything, they are fine.  

Right now we have a swirly mess heading to Europe.  All you can tell is that the weather will be messy.  

The Pacific is in a plume mess.  Like last year, it can settle into a pattern for a while, and you can predict based on that pattern.  However, it can shift any time.  Right now, we are getting a succession of previous patterns, lasting one day at a time.  It's a mess.  During these times, I can only say that the uncertainties of any forecast are zooming up, and I wouldn't put any money on it.

Without a steady 'pinwheel' pattern like last year, I will still go with an early and long winter, defined by world degree days.  This can be checked next Spring, but who's going to do that?

ps.  this is the last for 'Physics Forecast'.  It was cute, now it's a chore.  On to greater things!

Physics Forecast -- Polar incursions start up again

 The Physics Forecast is an attempt to get a forecast a little bit longer than normal.  It uses physics first principles such as 'hot air rises', and basic energy transfer.  This is unavailable in the normal forecasting world because touching physics blows up the fantasy picture.  The uncertainties start lower with a few months, and rise to 'meaninglessness' at 6 months.  The Popular People can forecast without uncertainties up to 50 years.

This maps is 'precipitable water', and is the best display for atmospheric heat energy.  The plumes are produced by heat energy transfer from the oceans.  The short term forecast comes from the plumes, and the long forecast comes from the ocean.  The working hypothesis is that 'heat flow' is the dominant factor for future weather.

I'm just sticking to North America for now, forget all those other places.  Here we see very powerful cold air blobs, air glaciers coming down and pushing the plumes around.  The cold air has no heat energy, but it can suck up heat energy, and has higher density, with momentum.  During the warm cycle, the plumes had greater energy, but now, in absence of that, we have these 'air glaciers'.

The plumes are so weak that we had stagnant air for the past month or two in the west.  This has now been blown away by a cold blob, clob, similar to the famous 'Texas Freeze'.  It is coming on to the east along a big front.

Europe will most likely get hit by that leftover stagnant hot air blob.  

The long term hypothesis remains the same -- the ocean belts have a non-linear mechanism for acquiring solar heat.  This is because of the action of water vapour which acts as a giant heat pipe, with the water going up and down, along with violent storm action.  It was on full blast during the warm cycle, and is now totally shut down.  The Pacific Ocean is stuck in a permanent 'La Nina'.  Australia will become a rain forest.  Canada goes back to 1830 winters.  The cold cycle will either be 2-40 years, or go straight on to the 300 year 'Little Ice Age' cycle.

Small earthquake has fun in California

 An M5.1 way out in the mountains south of San Francisco.  Our relatives felt it, but it was only 2 mm/s in Sanfran.  

This is the PGV and it is very low.  It's fun to go around the neighbourhood and see if people had shaking better or worse than you.  If you are the worst, take down your chimney.  If you didn't feel it at all, relax and have a drink.

Physics Weather - Plume action changes

 

The weather people called that the cold air is moving east.  It always does that.  Looks like the pinwheel action is over.  That gave us a warm early winter last year, but it doesn't look well-established this year.

A Pacific plume is hitting Alaska.  That always gives us a cold clipper, which is a cold-air peanut butter on top of warm bread.  We get the cold, and then snow.  The Great Lakes are still warm which might save Toronto, but Huntsville will get a foot or two.  

When a cold air blob pushes out warm air, there is only a small chance of snow, but it is the worst because the cold stays and the ice becomes salt resistant.  Blah!

I don't know why I do Europe any more.  It's like doing Australia!  It's become a common pattern this winter that this big cold air plume moves east and hits Europe.  The deep penetration of cold is due to a very weak Atlantic heat content, but it should give a few more narrow plumes of warmth.

ps.

The world ocean temps show stronger and stronger cold water incursions into both the Atlantic and Pacific belts.  Once again -- never been see before since sat monitoring started in the 80's.  

Physics Weather - A big pattern reversal

 

For the past month or so, the west has had stagnant air, which was hot and dry.  It was in all the press as proof of clange.  Now it is cold and wet.

Last year, we had months of 'pinwheel' action with the Pacific plumes.  Right now we've had a bit of that, but it looks like it is coming to an end.  So much for our Indian Summer.  I think I got sunstroke yesterday.

The west is getting Arctic air and the weather people expect that will move to the east.  I'm just forecasting cold, because the plume action looks limp.  

Europe is complex, but we can expect less and less heat energy from the Atlantic belt.  The generation of heat at the equator is tremendously non-linear, goes from very high to very low.  Thus is the wonder of the world.

Ocean temperatures had that weird blip, but now it is following my expected course.  I have to find these more obscure charts because noosa and nooa are in a chart war, and so, the main charts are suspect.

The mechanism of Indian Summer

 

I was always worried about using that term, but it has it's origins in the late 1700's in the US, so you know it's acceptable.  :)  It's lazy, hazy days after the first cold spell.  Here, the Pacific plumes are slashing down and raising the fine, polluted air of the south.  Time to take the lawn chairs back out of storage, and read in the sun, with a beer.

State of the Oceans - Oct 22, 2022

 

The currents map has been on vacation for a while.  It's absolutely steady.  If the endless La Nina cycle is going to break, you would see it here first.

La Nina used to be the short rebound from El Nino.  Now it is a different beast altogether.  The Popular People are going to call it 4th and 5th, etc., just to keep their jobs.  None of the previous 1997 and 2015 El Nino had this.  I'm just calling it the Cold Pacific -- no heat energy.  For the north, it means horrible long winters as measured by degree days, and for the south, it is an endless rainy sog.

For Alberta and Australia I had hopes they would break out of the group-think, but they don't think at all.  At least Alberta is better off with horrible Arctic air blobs, as the price of natgas triples.  Australia will just have to grow rice in their backyards.

The Pacific plumes are slashing down again.  In previous years, this has brought up the warm air from the Gulf, and also allowed Pacific air to reach Toronto.  This is why they think Toronto will have a mild, snowless winter, but I don't think the Pacific has the heat energy.  Time will tell.  Most likely we'll have a terrible winter, and worse next year.  However, for now, I'm drinking a beer and sitting out in the back.  So warm!  

How to plan an invasion

 Musky and Poots.

First plan to go at the worst time ever.  Overpay just before a big recession, or go when the mud is up to your armpits.  Both the same.

Announce to everybody that you are going to invade and tell them it will 'scorched earth' by killing everybody.

Listen to the wacky generals on how easy it will be (joey rogaine).

Launch tanks into the mud.

This always goes well.

The Poots Dilemma -- Ransomware or Destruction

 Old Poots has detached his fiefdom from the world economy.  He's blown up pipelines to get a better deal, and now he is attacking the world's fiber cables.

But, he rakes in so much ransomware money because he pays off MS.

What to do , what to do?  

** disclaimer.  This is fiction.  There is no such person as Poots.  Who the heck would actually destroy the world by threatening to destroy the world?  

None of this is actually happening.  Fictional Poots stopped terrorism by killing off all the minorities.  Now he is giving them machine guns.  Is this real?

Physics Forecast -- Frost hits Toronto

 Ah, the weather of my youth, frost kills the tomatoes in October.  Maybe next year we'll have the dreaded big snow in October, which takes down trees, still with leaves.  Lots of snow in Huntsville now.

We are getting a big hunk of Pacific air that has made it over the mountains.  That has been quite rare these last few months.

The cold air keeps zooming down to Florida, keeping away the swampy air.  When noosa launches the White Elephant, I'm expecting freezing conditions.  They'll have no problem explaining everything away.

The ocean temperatures are recovering from their little pimple.  I expect it to continue to track last year, but just under.  And next year, under that.

Europe is getting some warm Atlantic plume action.  Good for them.

ps. last year the Pacific plumes were strong enough to stop the Arctic blobs, and gave us a mild December.  The PP's think it will the same this year, but I think not.

Curling to become exciting

 

Every 4 years during the winter Olympics, I watch Canada win at curling.  I don't have a clue about any of the rules, or how they win.  I just like watching the pretty rocks, and the nice sound the smashing rocks have.  I am such a fan of rocks, and I watched 2 minutes of a show that showed how they made them in Scotland.  Next year they'll have vegan rocks made with 3d printers, and I won't watch.

This is all about a brand new rule that will make curling more exciting than a Leafs hockey game.  They won't be able to tick each other off any more.  I'll be able to watch, and when the announcer says 'There goes the no-tick rule.', I'll go ooooh.

UK is off my list

 

UK was the champion of the spurious carbon correlation, then they got all racist against Polish truck drivers, and left Europe.  Even the Gulf Stream abandoned them, while they convinced themselves they were getting warmer.

Now, they have a government less functional than Italy's.  It's just so sad, that they are off my list of satire.  I'll go with Australia for now, but that's a bit like barrel fishing.

Australia rain goes back to 1993

 

In the good old days, when I had half a brain, I looked up the records for Australia and South Africa during the last minor ice cycle in the 70-90's.  As I have said, the world goes through ice cycles at about 20 and 300 years.  I have constantly tried to find a mechanism, but modern sat data is only from 1980.

My first hypothesis was that the heat flow switched from the North to the South hemispheres.  That was a good effort because the total Solar Flux (heat energy) coming in should be the same.  But, the results of this study shattered my hypothesis.  Australia should be proud to utterly destroy it by being cold and soggy during that cycle.  

Unlike the Popular Tomato Lynch Mob, I could take a failed hypothesis and bounce back, because I didn't have any money on it, and nobody reads me.  Heavens forbid that nooa and noosa gave the admission 'My Bad!'.  They would be out on the streets.  

I had to change my hypothesis to 'Heat Engines', which are pockets along the equatorial belt that act as a huge solar lens, pumping down the heat.  Unfortunately, this hypothesis cannot be tested and destroyed, because, right now, there are no heat engines operating in the world.  And nobody will do the necessary physics measurements anyway.  Einstein said 'If you can't measure it, it doesn't exist.'  That was the cold, cruel, Scientific Method.  Now the PP's say 'If we make it up, it exists'.  

However, if we start dipping into a cold cycle, we have no idea if it is long or short.  Australia was a lovely rain forest before the first white guys showed up and burned a lump of coal.  Now, it will go back to that.  Their tourist brochures will say 'Come to Australia and watch mould grow on your nose.'

ps.  speaking of old days, we just went to the fancy mall and we haven't been in years.  Used to go all the time.  That was are fastest walk-through ever!  Everything is so fancy and several times more than we would pay.  Wow, I'm so detached from the world.

The mechanism of ocean temperature instability

 I actually have no idea, because nobody is measuring anything, but this morning I nearly had coffee up the nose when I saw the chart.

Quite a flip at the end, but then, all the lines have these spikes and dips.  If you look at detailed surface measurements, then you see all sorts of chaos, mainly eddy currents.  These currents take deeper warm or cold water and spread it around the surface, which affects this chart.  It's all quite mysterious and wonderful.

I'm expecting a quick dive again, since I'm not seeing anything on the surface temperature anomaly chart.  I suspect that the larger convolutions should show something, like typhoons, etc.

These little things don't affect my 6 month weather forecast, and no charts affect the Popular People 50 year forecast.  I'm just thinking that a bit of frostbite might stop the 'free the pointy end' fashion fad.  :)

ps.  I just saw the Sept nooa and noosa reports showing that global warming is still on track.  It's amazing what selected charts will show.  So, I take it back that the Popular People don't show charts any more.  They just devise some really weird ones.  

pps.  and next month they'll have a different set of charts.  Can't deny it.

End of clipper season - back to full air glaciers

 

Clippers are sections of cold air that ride down a warm front from the Pacific Ocean (in N Am).  On the map, they come down at 45 degrees (from the NW), and have been our main source of cold air.  With the Pacific heat engine shut down, they are becoming as rare as hens teeth.  

In Europe, they ride down a heat plume from the Atlantic.  Oh, for those good old days!  At least a clipper brought warmth on the other side.  Now, I fear they are becoming extinct for the winter.  We just have huge cold air blobs, clobs, or air glaciers.

In a way, the air glacier has exactly the same physics mechanism as actual continental ice glaciers, of 10,000 years ago.  We are in an interglacial, which means that the land has been depressed enough to stop the ice sheets from forming.  Wait another few thousand years.  But the global heat flow mechanism is exactly the same.

We have a 300 to 600 year heat flow mechanism that reverses the Pacific current flow, so that the equatorial belt is fed with very cold Antarctic water.  This is happening now, but the exact mechanism is unknown because the Popular People won't do the required physics.  Should they touch the tiniest bit of physics, their fantasy bubble will burst.  And we wouldn't want that.  It is so much nicer to have fantasies of baking to death, while we actually freeze to death.

My 'go to' chart of ocean temperatures is flicking down again.  The Europes can do like garter snakes, oil up and gather in huge huge naked groups to survive the winter.  The fashion trend is for 'full headlights', but that is not good for winter. :)

Obviously, my sad seasonal forecast is for 'friggin' freezin'.  Having natgas is great, so I won't have to burn my tons of excess dog hair to keep warm.  See ya!

ps.  and in other news, the Kool Kids are increasing forecasts to 50 years.  That's wonderful technology.

pps.  I was just thinking that those climate modellers are using surplus bitcoin machines to extend the forecasts.  Meanwhile, La Guard is endorsing tomato arson, as I knew they would.

and in Toronto, the raccoons are seeking electrical warmth.

The evolution of covid - computer game physics

 

This is a good time to bring back my earlier thoughts on the physics of evolution.  We have a perfect example here.  I catch every variant out there, and right now, all the neighbours are sick.  The good news is that they aren't dying.  The number one cure is to saturate yourself with my recipe for natural cannabis oil, and stop the inflammation from taking hold.

Back to my old posts about evolution physics.  The covid virus must be considered as an Iranian buzz-bomb, full of Chinese parts.  The new addictive computer games are all about designing a robot to fight.  In this case, the designer is blind chance and selection.  Throw a million bombs and some make it, and make more like that.

This is pure physics and nothing to do with the influencers of medicine and biology who are in charge.  It's all machines.  The original machine had all sorts of garbage required for animal transmission and that caused powerful allergic and inflammatory reactions.  People built up immunity and less reaction, or they died.  Masks were worn, and the Great Machine Designer of Evolution had to come up with a better design.

Our computer game designers may be the future of physics, but all the designing here is from random mutations and mistakes in reproduction.  The machine is successful if it penetrates and makes a million copies of itself.  In order to get through the surface defence of masks and sanitation, the machine had to shed the old animal proteins and become lighter, and more resistant.  This was easy to do.

All epidemics have gone through these oscillations.  Eventually, everything becomes the common cold.  The new machines don't 'get around' vaccines, but they make them irrelevant.  They reproduce upon first contact, fast and furious.  They are a smash and grab thief.  Get in, get out.  The immune system takes a day or two to come to the party.

Does any of this mean anything?  Who knows?  Certainly, we know that the power people are clueless, but what else is new?  I would just hope this all inspires a new generation of physics people.

World temperature forecast - Da Heat Strikes Back

 Yeah, I don't like the forecast of frozen doom, so I love forecasting interludes of warmth.  We are all due to some late warmth.

The ocean temperature chart shows a tiny kick, which could grow.  I love using this chart because it doesn't conflict with any philosophy, and the popular people have given up on all charts.  They are all showing the coming major ice cycle.  But maybe I'm wrong?

I'm calling this blip 'Poots Last Gasp'.  

The giant cold air blob, clob, seems to be getting lost in the ocean.  The warmth is eating away at it.  The life and death of clobs is interesting physics because they are negative energy, or a total lack of heat energy.  They form in the absence of the ocean belt heat plumes.  

North America is interesting in that a Pacific plume has made it over the mountains, but Vancouver is going to get a blast of a minor clob.  The central clipper is getting eaten.

The upshot is that we are in a battle and the outcome is uncertain, so we might as well call for warmth.

The influencers are becoming unglued, but this physics blog should make them happy for a while. :)

ps.  poohey.  That tiny tick just crapped out.  Back down again.

Another fine mess of clippers

 I find it easy to write weather forecasts.  Right now, the study of clippers gives a one to two week forecast, which is in la-la land for conventional forecasts.  I'm only in the 80% area, but I don't check, and neither does anybody else.

The old clipper gave Florida a taste of cold, and this is a new one forming in the north.  Because of the old clipper, this new one doesn't have a defined edge.  This is the new pattern, the clippers are coming so fast and furious that the new one just melts into the old.  Last year, they were separated and defined.

Europe is strange in that it really isn't a clipper from the Northwest any more.  I'll have to go back to calling them cold air blobs, or clobs.  I like making up new terms, it keeps everybody on their toes.  However, it is going straight down the Atlantic, which is a new thing.  It should be pushed over eastward to Europe.

Europe is still enjoying the last Atlantic plume, but this one will make everything blue.  Germany has filled all their natgas storage, and that should last a week.  Although the whole map is getting blue, there are enough stagnant hot areas to keep our popular people happy.  Their latest thing is to rewrite history and claim they've been right for 100 years.  This is magnificent entertainment, and I would never deny people the pleasure of it.

ps.  processing the cannabis oil.  Smells up the whole street, and the dog won't go outside.

pps.  I feel I have become the New Elvis (from the movie) because I don't want the lynch mob after me, and throwing tomato sauce.  I predicted they would become more poots-desperate as the world cools, and they are.  Stay out of their way!