Wednesday, January 1, 2020

Bring in 2020!

It's been 20 years of blogging, more or less, I can't remember.  I started out in the 80's making earthquake comments on Usenet, then my big splash was pointing out a huge security hole with the new BMX online banking.  They retired that name and they wanted to kill me.  But I got a huge job for the guy who disected it.

Then I started blogging anonymously on 'Bad Siting', which was all about horrible sites for nuclear plants, nuclear waste, etc.  I retired that when I 'came out' in 2007, which was when I retired.  I have a whole list of my 'predictions' based on physics, some of which worked and some didn't.  I really formed them in terms of hypotheses, which could be proven false by later information.

My first prediction was that the Niagara Tunnel would be a multi-billion dollar waste of money, which is was.  All that is water is hidden under the bridge.  Even Doug didn't want to dredge that up.

My next prediction was that the Oklahoma earthquakes would work their way up to an M7 earthquake.  Natural gas and fracked oil went to zero, and all earthquakes stopped.  We can say that the hypothesis remains untested.

My final thing was that 'Carbon Warming' lacked physics and was a spurious correlation, like basketball games and the stock market.  With a spurious correlation, we soon have drift and the global temps after 2016 have shown that.  Luckily, the gretas have remained in a time warp, as evidenced by all the articles we have now.

Many things remain untested, such as the Bruce Black Hole.  I was waiting for them to drive a shaft and kill people, but the feds have that tied up forever.

The Arctic ice volume hasn't made up for the huge inflow from the Pacific.  The volume is increasing at a normal rate, but the lag is huge.  I'm hoping for a cross-over soon, but my 'end of year' hypothesis has failed (cross-over).

We had a warmer December than I thought because of huge tropical plume activity, which exists without an El Nino.  Very weird, but chaotic.  The UK hasn't had its big snow yet.

All in all, a mediocre performance.  I have no desire to write about all the weird California tech toys we got from California Son.  I'll keep quiet for a while, and wait for the global temps.  I expect a continuing flat-liner temps, working from the Arctic ice volume rates.

No comments: