Cooler air coming in

El Nino has died, and we are getting cooler air for Toronto.

And the Greenland shot is spectacular, as the Europe warm is totally shattered.

The Arctic ice volume continues a very sharp turn.

If it continues, the minimum ice this year will be the highest in a decade.  So, if you thought that last winter was cold and miserable, wait until you see this year.  Replace your windows.  The UK better double up on snowplows.

Greenland blocks the warm air

All the doom-mongers said that Greenland would melt from the Europe stagnant air.  Ha!  This demonstrates interesting physics.

The warm air just bounces off Greenland.  This shows the permanent high pressure air over the ice, and shows the winds.

And the ice stays as cold as ever.  I never realized it before, but this demonstrates my concept of an 'ice block', which is a major component of my hypothesis for major ice advances.  No need for solar cycles.

The glacier creates its own weather.  That comes mainly from the ability to shed off solar heat flux, and to maintain a high pressure zone.  This seems to only happen for continental ice sheets, the Arctic ocean has its own problems with the sea trying to melt it from below, so it isn't cold enough for weather-making.

Thus, once a continental ice sheet starts (or the Arctic ice becomes very thick), then it's a 'snowball' effect.  The true Ice Age starts.  But, as I have said, there is the little problem of the continents sinking under ice load, so we won't have this for another few thousand years.

All the papers that reported this doom won't follow through.  People will be left with the impression that Greenland is melting, and impressions are what the warmies live on.

ps. thanks to all the FB science lovers, that's the highest hits I ever got.  Wouldn't it be funny if FB led the 'Scientific Method' revival. 

Arctic ice volume starts a strong cut

This is great news on a very hot day.  The Gulf air is continuing to hit Toronto, but the Pacific air is coming straight west.  Don't know what that means.  Usually means dry, cooler air.

The ice volume plot shows the end of that long El Nino.  Lasted a whole year, but it was a small peak.  The monthly world temps should show a drop.  Meanwhile, the UK is enjoying cold air for the summer, after a one-day heat wave.  When the El Nino ends, they'll finally know what the Gulf Stream did for them all these years.

ps.  this is plain silly, but they never retract.

Reference

You can see that the Europe heatwave plume is about to be strongly turned back.  The rest of Europe is in stagnant air, so it will be hot.  I always wonder what happened to those guys from nasa who published that the Greenland glaciers were advancing.  They must have got 'the cold shoulder'.  :)

Greenland remains an ice paradise. 

You can 'prove' anything

Reference

Our warmie buddies have shown again and again that when you set out to prove something, you can do it.  You mainly use selected data and leave out the embarassing stuff.

Thus, none of our warming and cooling periods have been global.  Yet, this one is.  They have ignored the satellite data which shows that the latest warming trend is confined to the Northern Hemisphere.  An easy thing to ignore.  After all, who is left to check these things?

On another note, it is reported that there is no more lithium around.  I predicted this quite a while ago that the Tesla dream does not scale.  Lithium is more deadly than asbestos to mine.  I have always pushed methanol fuel cells with super-capacitors, and the required catalysts are being nano-engineered right now.

Cottage Report - July 25, 2019

Hot, sunny, and quite dry.  Looks like we'll be into a drought, which is typical for this time of year.  July heat did not disappoint.  The Arctic ice curve is starting to cut in, so it will be difficult for the warmies to come up with something new.  Right now they are going on about the rate of Arctic ice melting, as if that ever meant anything.

Fishing is terrible as usual for a hot summer.  The UK is going on about a single spike plume that gives them a day-long heat wave. 

Cannabis Oil Works Miracles

My own cannabis oil, as I outlined how to make it, is working miracles.  I'm giving it to friends and neighbours, on a small trial basis, just like I would give a bottle of my home-made wine.  My totally beat-up relative is finally able to sleep, and eliminate the pain.  My neighbour's teenage daughter had lots of inflammation problems and depression, and swings.  This stuff has stabilized her.

Home-made stuff is 'crude oil' with every little minor cannaboid.  I have no faith in the over-processed stuff, like the supplements you can buy and never work.  Growing your own is more than 100 times cheaper and works better.  Never buy that over-the-counter extracted cbd oil.  You need all the extra junk.

I think my stuff has a thc/cbd ratio of 2 to one.  So, buy a bucket of buds and make your own oil.  Shudder at the price and then grow your own.  The plant variety 'Hash Plant' has the right ratio and souvenir seeds can be bought from Crop King.

It's too late for the garden now, so you can grow under lights.  Use a hydroponic method, since fusarium wilt kills everything.

ps.  this may have a slightly higher chance than placebo of working.  There have been people who have had a very strong reaction to the thc, and couldn't take it.  With all these things, you can trot out people who have been cured, but it's the probability that matters.

pps.  I am convinced that inflammation is the root cause of many problems, and this is the best stuff for it, other than cortisone steroids.

Amazon misses guaranteed delivery

I always write when they miss.  Sure, I have a dozen times when they were a day early, but I was looking forward to my fishing supplies, and darn, they missed.

So, I may have to go to the cottage without my new fishing bait.  Sad. 

Linux - kernel 5.3.0 rc1 - regression - no usb keyboard

So, don't try this one until rc2.  My logitech usb keyboard was dead.  I even changed the batteries.  But I went back to the old kernel and everything worked.  youknowho better take his stress pills.  :)

ps. rc3 still bad.  Usually this means you have to give up on the entire 5.3 kernel, since they aren't going to fix it.

Farewell to Hong Kong

I was lucky that I worked in a time when Hong Kong led the world.  All my bosses came from HK.  It was bright and innovative.

Now China is seeking the 'peace of the dead', and it is hiring the triads to do it.  It's the ultimate 'the end justifies the means', which means if you want peace and quiet, you kill everybody.  All these riots are 'food riots' just like the Arab countries.  It means that you can no longer feed the populace. 

HK is going to become insipid, like Singapore, or China.  All their people are going to try to go to California.  Sad.

The End of July

Looks like 28C for another couple of weeks, then August 25C, going rapidly down to September 20C, etc.

Since we right on the edge of chaos, we might get more heatwaves.  But old man Winter is trying to attack us.  The old El Nino is dying.

The ice curve will tell us when the El Nino is dead.  It is starting to curve.  The winter before had the highest ice volume, but you can see in October it started to plunge in volume.  It is amazing that last winter's ice volume was still just below 2018, even with the El Nino. 

That tells us that when this EN dies, we will see one heck of a winter.  The ice volume will hit a new record.  All of the news will be silent, however, and we will only get selected irrelevant factoids.  Looking forward to it.

The garden is fantastic right now.  We are freezing a heck of a lot of beans. 

Retail Apocalypse Hits Canadian Tire

So, I wanted to get bathroom, rv toilet, and fishing stuff right away.  Can't go to ammie, which had a huge selection.  I went up to the local CT.  They are in one of their 'despair' phases, which means that nothing was in stock.  Went away with nothing, and had to order on ammie anyway.

The retail sector starts to cut down on stocking, and then employees.  Once in while they get a fire under their feet and pour money down the hole, then everything is stocked.  But now they are dying.

This is called a vicious spiral, and it is exponential.  Expect to see it all go down the drain next year.  Only Shoppers will remain standing.

Cottage report July 19, 2019

This is the peak of the July heat wave.  Stagnant, Gulf air is over us.  High of 34 in the city.  Here it is wonderful.  The water is still cool, and the nights are cool, as well.  Horseflies are everywhere, but easy to kill and feed the fishies.

Not a nibble with my fishing, which is par for a heat wave.  Some people want me to work, but not going to happen....

ps

Yeah, let's blame that rotten jet stream for everything, even though it just a boundary effect between hot and cold.  It's angry at all the carbon being released, and will bring the ice age down on us.  The more we breathe, the colder it will get.

ps.  fun watching the daughter teaching her man how to windsurf without the centre board down.  When I finally mentioned it, he said to her 'I hate you."  Then he started right away with the keel down.  :)

pps  a major change in weather on Sunday.  The fish are biting again, but I didn't catch anything worth keeping.

more:  this is the warmest June ever.  I couldn't believe it since we are well below the peak warm month, but we are on a small El Nino rise and all the other Junes were in troughs.  Thus, the warmest June ever, but a highly misleading fact.  The other El Ninos did not peak in June.

mor2 - coming home Sunday, I saw that Toronto got like 6 inches of rain.  wow.

Pumping saltwater on Antarctic ice sheets will save us

Reference

Yeah, pumping salt on ice is the best way to keep it from melting.  We Canadians know that.  Best leave basic physics out of this.

Fun in the press

Reference

The manuscript makes the extraordinary claim that human-made climate change does not exist in practice. But scientists who contributed to the scathing Climate Feedback analysis point out that the document cherry picks information and relies on circular reasoning.

This is hilarious to me, since that's what the warmies do constantly.  I now think we need 5 years of cold to shake this out.

Stagnant air makes it a July to remember

It's as I predicted.  Without strong tropical plumes moderating the temperature, we are at the mercy of stagnant air, and the solar flux.

Throw in a little bit of El Nino and we have something.  Note all the air is just swirling around.  This gives the warmies a happy time.

The UK isn't that hot.  The tabloids keep predicting a 3 month heat wave and it never happens.  Can't wait to see what happens in Aug-Sept.  They are getting cold.

Such fun.

**for another year or two the cold will be blamed on a 'wandering jet stream'.  Ha.

ps. just went blueberry picking at the cottage with 100% humidity and not a speck of breeze.  Biting flies everywhere, the dogs were huffing like steam engines.  Never again.

Compost facility composts its own roof

Reference

https://globalnews.ca/news/5490239/edmonton-compost-waste-council-plan/

This is hilarious.

El Nino comes back at us again

This past year there has been an almost continuous small El Nino.  Just when you think it's dead, it pops up again.

This shows the Pacific reversing again.

This shows the huge reversal temperature bump in the Pacific.

This is the bottom of the ENSO ONI index table.  You can see it is in the red for a long time, but a fraction of 2016.  This is the El Nino that never ends!  It's also the reason why the global temps have bumped up again.  The Arctic ice volume continues on a steep summer dive.

ps.  also, the Atlantic belt is pumping warm water up north again, so we might not be into such a big freeze as I thought.

Nuclear waste studies continue

Reference

Nobody knows as much about the rock mechanics of waste storage, as myself.  Yeah that it is all being ignored, because this is all a political exercise.  The unfortunate part is that all the northern granite was glaciated with no cover.  That means high-pressure water was injected everywhere, and this had the effect of cracking the rock down to about one klick. 

Below this is the 'natural' stress of the rock which is so high that it cracks if you look at it.  They are fixated on a certain way of disposal because they printed up all the literature, and it's wrong.  However, it's something they have to go through.  Good luck.

Clear-Air Convection Strikes Again

Reference

In the 70's they used to study clear air convection.  They used lasers and found huge convection cells of very high velocity.  But all that was destroyed when the 'greenhouse gas' religion came to nasa.  Now they don't do a thing, because to admit to this type of convection is to cast doubt on the carbon hypothesis.

For there can be no greenhouse effect if you have convection.  It's like having no glass in your greenhouse.  Modern lidar could define all of this, but their last measurement had all the lasers pointed upward from the balloon, to look at upper convection.

With a little bit of physics behind it, airplanes could have lasers looking for this.  But, no, airplanes will continue to blunder into severe cells, and we'll call it 'turbulence'.

ps.  a clear-air convection cell is a dry thunderhead.  No plane goes into that.  But, as there are more planes in the air, we'll see more of this.

pps. OMG

A thunderstorm at the cottage

They were very intense in the 70's cycle.  They would scare the heck out of you, and make the electricity box spark.  They could blow lightbulbs that weren't turned on.  Right now, one of these is coming in.  It is preceeded by strong winds. 

Once there was a tornado that came right at us.  The tornadoes were more common in the warm cycle of the last few decades.  It was like being under water.  The rain came at us horizontal from the lake.  Water poured in from the upper vent.  After, we saw several trees knocked down.

During the cold cycle, we never had tornadoes, but much more intense electricity.  Cottages would get burned down from lightning strikes.  I dread the whole change, and the dog is under the bed.  This one coming now is very small but very intense.

Cottage Report - July 10, 2019

This will go down in history as the finest cottage weather for more than 20-30 years.  The day is hot, the night is cold, and we have blueberries for the first time in 30 years.  This is enough to tide me over the harsh winter.

The fish aren't cooperating.  I looked down from the dock the other morning, and it was like a show aquarium.  There must have been 20 bass frollicking around, some really large ones.  All of them laughed at my bait.  My dock fish know all about me, and with the world's worst fishing dog, they get lots of warning when I cast.  She just has to bark each time. 

The charts all show me we are in a classic 70's Beta Block, which is what Percy the weatherman alway talked about.  Now, the warmies aren't happy with talking about 'The End of Civilization' now it's the 'End of All Life'.  Sheesh, don't they get enough money from the trudies?  My only hope in Ontario has gone all crazy with his vendettas.  No basic physics coming soon.

LCBO has empty shelves

It looks like Dougie hit the wrong store.  Lots of empty shelves of stalwarts like vodka.  Everything is gone.

According to staff, it appears that the computer system for deliveries has gone wacko.  Trucks are going to the wrong places, and not showing up.  This is like the Fed payroll system, except it has a real effect on people.  And when it goes nuts at the Tax Dept.  it's sad when they don't give back your money.

Ammie leads with way with mundane issues of delivery and such.  I know that they put huge brains on it and paid them a fortune.  No bright person wants to work on stocking shelves.  So you can't get bright people to work on depressing stuff (in Canada), because you can't pay them more than an average programmer.  And startups in Canada never get any real money.

So, no vodka for you.  I'm sure they will never mention this unless it shows up on the news.

ps.  I guessed correctly - a gov't computer system.

Kern County earthquake is a fine New Madrid mechanism

First a thrust on the lower spur, then a larger strike-slip off the spur.  Next we'll have another large strike-slip on the other side of the thrust spur.

A classic compressive mechanism, all according to rock mechanics.  Our fav. busgus will be totally surprised.

Also, please note that all the earthquakes in the past 10 years have proven their 'early warning' system is useless.  However, they have to eat, and, so, make up an imaginary world, just like warmies.

ps.  Okay, here is the prediction

Now the busgus could be a bit more precise, but it looks like it won't bother too many people.

pps.  qualification -- if you believe this, instead of the busgus, you are nuts.

more: second quake a multiple because of places near collapse that could be fixed.  Best stay out of 70's highrises.

more:  The prediction window has closed.  It was a failed prediction.  Even if it happens tomorrow, it has failed.  It's just so unstable at this half-done point.  But if it happens 30 years from now, it will just in the background seismicity.  :(

Global temperatures are up, but North America crashes

I think that the warmies can use the global temperature plots again.  They prefer to use isolated pictures like a stupid duck eating a cigarette butt.

The global temps are rising!  But wait, the carbon hypothesis says that warming should be uniform.

The Northern mids are way down as anybody in the UK or Canada could tell you.  And US natgas is at almost zero because of this graph.

Look at that drop!  My tomatoes suffered for it.  But just tell the warmies they should go back to actual charts again, instead of endless 'models' that use the parameters from 10 years ago.

ps.  I had expected that the globals would go down again, but an oscillation of heat flow from north to south would be almost the same.  We really don't have a handle on previous cycles.

Toronto real estate limps along

The market is turning down in the hot weather, although the June weather was horrid.  Anyway, it limps, like bitcoin.  My friend is building a house up North in the middle of nowhere.  She sold her Toronto house right away with a 20% haircut over peak.  The buyers were a young couple thinking that a 20% was good.  Meanwhile, you look around and there are endless things being built.

The monster homes are at a 30% cut, and I think they will hit 50%, like Vancouver.  Everything should eventually settle to 20-50%.  In ten years it will start to rise again. 

Kern County earthquake, 1952

The recent earthquake in California is in the same general area as the famous Kern County earthquake of 1952.

This m6.4 was a shallow thrust earthquake.  The Kern County earthquake was a m7+.  That is probably the maximum for a shallow thrust.  A valley blind thrust can probably get to an 8.  These are the most deadly earthquakes ever, if there is a city on top of it.

That's because the 'hammer' of the thrust on the hanging wall can throw solid rock into the air.  Nothing can survive that.  All the other big earthquakes like a subduction m9 or a San Andreas m8 can never approach this type of peak ground velocity.

You can see the San Andreas takes a bit of jog at Kern County mainly because of extremely strong rocks.  That places the area into high compression.  Thus, every big earthquake in that area will have the same thrust mechanism.

Anyway, good trivial information.  :)

ps.  a bigger m7 strike-slip earthquake.  Since this is in strong rock with high compression, it resembles an eastern earthquake.  The busgus would have no clue.

Cottage Report July 3,2019

We are living in a stagnant July heat wave.  The lake has been still as a millpond all day.  All the ocean plumes are stuck.  This is the wonderful summer I predicted, but it will be short.  The water is cool now, and the nights are cool as well.  This is the most perfect weather for the cottage that I have seen for a long time.

When we had that warm spell sometimes it was so hot that the water was a bathtub, and you lay in sweat all night.  Not now.

Here are the rocks at sunset.  They glow red.  I can take the drone up now and not crash it.  It might last until my trip to the Seychelles.  Yeah! 

The bugs are at a reasonable level.  I can put up the shade tent on the dock, and I zap the horseflies with my super-heavy 7000 volt zapper.  They shrug it off, but it must give them a headache, since they fly away for a while. 

Figuring out the drone

Sometimes it's sad to be an old man with the reflexes of a slug.  This is especially true with a drone.

I realized that you can't use automatics when taking off from a high deck.  I've had many crashes but into the nice bush.  I can't use 4k when uploading in photos.  Here's a nice run where I landed it right.  Neato.

Whoops you have to download first.  blah.  Wait a minute.

How to make shit up

Reference

In future years, when we are freezing, we can warm up by the fire, reading how the warmies kept things going 3 years after the turn.  You can admire thier wonderful plot that stops at the peak of the 2017 El Nino.  It will be amazing how they focussed on melting events that happened 3 years ago.  How the town's prosperity depends on keeping the concept of 'seeing the last Arctic ice'.

These people can't imagine going back to the 1970's so they just ignore it.  Don't visit in the winter.