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This is a new tack in the fine art of 'stirring up the shit'. I think the use of extreme value theory, is a bit .... extreme. I think with this thinking, next year is always the highest chance, since if the earthquake doesn't happen, it adjusts the parameters. Of course, then there's the year after that....
Magnitude 5's or 6's aren't going to do diddly squat to most structures, unless they are absolutely terrible, and on a sand pit. Maybe they are that bad? I somehow have the impression there are no swamps in Australia, all dusty outback. Wonder where the crocs live? :)
Still a good 6 under Hamilton is going to do a number on us, and I think our odds are a lot greater than down under.
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