Thursday, December 18, 2014

Shutting Down for Christmas

Once again, I've gone a bit too manic on this, and I am suffering the shudders.  For sure, if there is an M5 in Okieland, then I'll wake up.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Seismic Hazard for Ontario Nuclear Plants Triples

I have confession to make.  When I first installed all those seismometers (along with people who knew what they were doing, I couldn't install a lightbulb), I did it so we could find out more about the true seismic hazard of the region.  I was convinced that the truth would set me free, in that we would localize the really big earthquakes to the Hamilton fault.  The trouble with the old fashioned probability analysis was it would slide a big earthquake right under the plant as you went to lower odds.  So, there was a huge jump in ground motion for every probability decade, ie. 10-5 was much larger than 10-4.  This was unsafe, since the basic premise of seismic design was that if you designed linearly for a higher probability (10-3), you'd be good for graceful decay at the rarer levels (ie. no horrible cliff).  Seismic is not supposed to blow out everything until 10-7 or there about, whatever that means.

Now, the geology shows that I was wrong.  Ohio, Arkansas and Oklahoma show us that water activates all the megathrusts, and water has been seeping down under the lakes for thousands of years.  You can see the two strongest linears in Lake Ontario.  To me, this is horrifying.

We have to add this to the fact that the lake sediments look like they were churned by multiple earthquakes.  Thank god that was suppressed by Harper-science!  And the regulator toadies just smile.

I could list some mitigating factor about seismic wave stress and all that, but my scenario of nuclear destruction, especially for Pickering has become a bit more probable.  I write this because all of Canada is in on this reality distortion and the geology will be dismissed, just like they dismiss it for the Bruce Black Hole. That keeps me out of trouble.  :)  And it's no use for you remaining homeless newshounds, everything is locked up tight.

**Did you know I heard that they sent a group of intense dummies honourable very old engineers to look again at the Maple reactors and figure out what went wrong.  That place is an absolutely pure Seismic Death Trap, and they didn't put in the internal bracing that the Koreans did, which in turn saved the Korean Maple because it eliminated the internal distortion that caused the Canadian problem.  Sort of like an earthquake while operating.  :)

Answers:  One question from g+.  Yes these are the megathrusts that caused New Madrid and Oklahoma.  Keep those questions rolling.  Any hint that the Big Canada Putins are reading this, will send me scurrying under the nearest rock.  Links:  Megathrust    Nuclear Scenario
Please note that the Pickering threat is mitigated by 'time at risk', in other words:  "Thank God it's shutting down."

New Nuclear Plants Back on the Table

I give it a 1% because Big Bruce Guy (I'll build a nuclear plant anywhere) has bought a house near Darlington.  It all hinges on how much he'll soak the Liberals for.  If I were him I'd buy a house for odds as low as 1 in 1000.  If nothing happens, then sell it at no loss, but something does, you couldn't buy a big fancy house for love or money.

I go with this article.

And this picture.

Well, come on, all you fracking protesters, and Suziki-pipeline protesters.  Huge solar farmers (farms) are cutting down forests in Ontario.  And windmill farms give us headaches.  As well, all these stupid things only work in Ontario at 5% capacity.  They will never get back the energy that was pumped into them.

Even our dear Liberals may have, or might get somebody who can do the math.  As well, the Darlington refurb is trying to defy physics*, and Pickering is gasping.  What to do?  What to do?

Oh yeah, we can rely on US fracking for cheap natural gas.  Only that each little bit of that gas involves injecting waste water deep under Oklahoma where all the deep bacteria are getting slaughtered.  You know they will fight back with earthquakes.  Exactly 5 years from now they will get M6 earthquakes, and 5 years from that the M7's.  But natural gas production will drop faster than the Russian Rouble.

I don't think organic farming will save us all.  Even for that all those organic farms need electricity for the hothouses.  So, I give it 100% that we'll have new nuclear and Mr. Bruce Big Guy will take over Darlington.  (The timing is my out on this, probably when Toronto condo prices crash.)

*the old seismic design basis could break a block of solid steel.  The only way they got through it was to twaddle with the results (I mean that in a totally not libalish way, Mr. Big).  Some people might use words stronger than 'twaddle', but not me!  And they boosted that up, and are using young people with modern analysis.  Now we're talking solid titanium.

**Mr. Big will be smart enough to bring in two or three Chinese Westinghouse reactors, along with poaching all the builders.  They've gone cool on this in China.  At solar electricity rates, the pension funds will go ape-shit.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Annual Vault Scam

I get something like this every year, I don't know why.

Dear Person, I am saddened to hear of the death of my non-existent relatives.  Perhaps they will join all my other non-existent relatives in non-existent heaven.  Please give the money to those too unfortunate to have such a cornucopia.

Lunch with the old gang

It's been a year since we had lunch together, the old gang from the old company which shall always remain nameless.  I never laughed so hard since the last time, since things are 10 times worse.  Nearly all the old guys I knew will never retire, so you have a bunch of 70 year-olds doing engineering analysis the same way they did it 50 years ago.  I love it!

As well, I published a long time ago that they could never do a Dar---ton refurb with the same seismic assumptions from 40 years ago.  Well, they are doing that, but 30% more.  The smart money is on the toilet.  :)

That's all I'll leak out, the other stuff is much worse.  I'll laugh for a long time.

Further fun:  Apparently the big guy from Bruce has bought a house near a certain refurb and new nuclear plant site.  He was successful in getting twice the rate for Bruce, and if he can get 4 times the rate on Lake Ontario, then we may see something new, all owned by pipelines and pension funds.  So, all you hot speculators, drive up the house prices way east of Toronto.  :)