Friday, February 17, 2017

The Annual Oklahoma Earthquake Predictions

These are not really predictions, in the sense that they have to be useful.  This is just an extrapolation based on the main hypothesis, and incorporating all known physics.  The hypothesis can be invalidated by a variation of the prediction, keeping in mind the uncertainties are huge.

Hypothesis:  OK earthquakes are caused by the injection of freshwater frack waste into the highly stressed Precambrian basement, which is riddled by major megathrust structures which can be mapped in Canada.

Extrapolation:  This is the big trumpy year.  We expect a huge increase in demand for frack waste disposal.  On the other side, the supply (available injection) is being restricted due to an assumption that mere pressure is causing earthquakes.  As with the 'war on drugs', the price of injection will go up.  We estimate that we can expect a doubling or tripling, from 30 cents a barrel to over $1.  As such, the lower grade 'produced water' will be priced out of the market, and they will shooting pure freshwater frack waste.

 We are noticing now that the seismic rate is going up to one m4 per week.  A rough idea of the total seismic energy rate is to just keep track of the larger earthquakes.  Forget about the m3's.  The 'powers' like to plot 3's as 'proof' the number of earthquakes are going down.  Every year, the seismic rate has been very low during the winter because they can't deal with fresh water when it freezes.  Last year, things didn't start moving until May, because of the very cold April.

We now expect March-April to have a rate of a 4 every other day, giving a rate of one 5 per month.  Please note that we do not use the busgus magnitudes because of severe directivity.  We generally go with the largest rating by seismometers around the world.

The summer will see one 5 a week.  This should give us a few 6's over the season.  We maintain good odds of a 7 this year with 8's next year.  We are very uncertain about the 'multiple' factor for these larger earthquakes.  Right now we seem to have a factor of 5, that is 5 m4's for an m5, etc.  Who knows about the m6's?

All in all, an exciting earthquake season.  Politically, we expect no voice from the busgus (defunded), or the EPA (purged).

Thursday, February 16, 2017

A new continent - Zealandia


I always follow good stuff in plate tectonics, and this is the best.  Of course, you've always could have seen it since the beginning of Time, in Google Earth.  :)

But this is all semantics.  The paper now says it should be a continent rather than pieces of rock.  And that's big news!  Like planet being demoted to planetoid and back again, and back again.

But trumpies can't build a hotel on it with Russian money.  It needs to dry out a bit.  Perhaps a new Ice Age might exposed prime property.  But it is interesting to note that this is what happens to any continent who loses its heat engine.

Thursday, February 9, 2017

A Finite Amount of Water Vapour - Part 3

If we use the 'fairy tale' method of Philosophy Science, we can say that the Earth has always (last billion years or so) had the same ratio of land to ocean.  If we look at hard physics, we can see a reason, which was outlined in my series on Earth heat radiation.

In a nutshell, since my articles are impossible to find, the Earth has struggled mightily to shed heat to outer space, not just the solar influx.

It's still doing it now.  So if the Trumpy Magical Galactic Emperor ordered more continental mass (because someone on Earth insulted him), or to kill everyone by drying up the Earth, he couldn't do it.  He would be Balanced.  The Earth has to shed heat, and it does it through the ocean basins, and circulation of ocean water, which is our big CHU (central heat unit) water cooler.

If you create more continent, you are insulating the chu. Can't happen.

However, His Royal Trumpiness could invoke magic and move the continents around.  Depending on his mood, he could create a Snowball Earth, or the Return of the Dinosaurs.  If he chose Snowball, then would evenly separate the continents for maximum Heat Radiation Efficiency.  If he wanted Dinosaurs to stomp us, then he would jam all the continents together.

So, with continents jammed together, we have the Mesozoic, and we get back to the title.  Remember those oceans of water?  They all come back because the continents are a giant thermal blanket, and the heat builds up.  This bakes the crust and gives us a huge amount of water vapour.  That thin band of clouds which we have now, becomes a huge band covering the earth.  Constant rain, and global warming (the real kind).  We large mammals can't survive, because it's too stinking hot!  Dinosaurs eat us.

The End.