Saturday, June 27, 2026

Venezuela Earthquake Sat Pictures

 


There are a lot of pictures.  With 50,000 missing, I increase my death estimate to 30,000.  As with Armenia, the ratio of deaths to injury will be out of this world.

Lots of the mid-story buildings were still standing.  Are they liveable?  Maybe not.  That would mean 100% of housing wiped out.  However, if people can get out, it meets the code intention.  I have to assume the standing buildings have steel.  There is no steel in the pancakes.

All the low buildings look wiped out.  This is like the India earthquake, but with no single-standing houses.

However, without my handy-dandy 2-buck accelerometer (imagination), we can't tell anything about the standing buildings.  I suspect the next earthquake will flatten them.


The weirdest thing for strike-slip (horizontal shear) is that there are no aftershocks.  This more resembles a continental thrust earthquake.  If I had any coffees, I would bet on an M8 finishing the run.  However, as always, the uncertainties in the probabilities overshadow the odds themselves.  In other words, a sucker bet.

As comparison, look at the Phil earthquake


This is normal for an edge earthquake.  Does it mean anything?  Nope.  Just as much chance to complete the sequence.  After a month or so, the odds go down to the regional odds before.  An earthquake does not change those odds.  All those people who thought an earthquake 'relieves the stress' are foo-foo.


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