We have reached close enough to July to do this. I have 3 steady readers because I stick to the Scientific Method. Nobody else does, because they like to define themselves by dogma, which is a stated position by a celebrity. The SM puts all the chips on the table for an experiment, and empires may fall. No way anyone in power is going to do this.
The downside of dogma is that it drifts away from reality, as defined by the basic laws of physics. You can always think you can fly by flapping your arms, but one day the odds-chickens come home to roost.
My main hypotheses for weather are: We have a wildly convective atmosphere, including 'invisible' clear air convection. No way we can have any sort of greenhouse effect. It's like building a greenhouse without glass.
The other is that ocean currents convect on their own, with 100 times the energy density of air. They distribute the heat energy around the world, and the air just tags along. The dogma has the air driving the currents.
This is the best plot to see what's going on. The ocean currents have switched the feed to the equatorial belt, showing the start of a Major Ice Cycle (same as the Little Ice Age). Under this new regime we had a major heating event in 23-24. Since then we have had reverberations, getting smaller and smaller, and ending now. You can see it all on this chart.
The heating events go down S-E. This last one grazed the Nino Zone and flung up the curve. The poor weather people totally missed the 23-24, and only snuck in references to it as an El Nino when it was done. That's because it had a huge effect on this curve.
This last heat blob is breaking up. There will be no great effect on the charts, which seems to be the definition of the day, for these things. They will give a party, but nobody will come.
Even in the midst of the Little Ice Age, we had 2 weeks of summer. The mechanics of a heat wave is the Sun overhead and no breeze. Nothing to do with global trends. However, the wipe-out of heat energy in the Pacific leads to stagnant pockets.
The currents change day to day. The big reversal current is above the equator, and is carrying relative warmth (anomaly) but not very hot for the world. The weather people made the 'Big Mistake' of overlaying an equatorial sea level anomaly over the hot zone. Only out by a few hundred klicks. You will never hear about it.
The state of the oceans means a very short, intense summer, followed by snow and cold that will make the last two years seem tropical. The climate people will simply adjust their dogma, and all will be well. There is nothing that could get them to admit they are floating on a cloud that is starting to freeze solid, and coming screaming down. Their groupthink does not lead to a disaster.
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