Monday, September 10, 2018

Toronto Housing Crash Hits Bottom at 25%

The joke is that it might not be the bottom.  The abandoned mouldy house up the road sold for 850K, down from a million at the peak.  It was a 'must sell', and the developer was brave.  The chart I usually show is very late, and won't tell much.

We know that 25% of houses for sale are vacant, as people move to their new condos.  They are pricing them at the peak -- good luck with that.

If the knees are chopped out of the market, how long can condo prices hold?  The selling price at the bottom of a crash is determined by 'must sells'.  We'll be seeing this with condos soon.  Right now the condo prices have gone up so much that people can wait to sell their house.  Soon, people will realize that the house won't sell, and may try to sell the condo.  Then prices will crash.

A long time ago I predicted this when the Chinese hot money stopped.  I think I've been surprised at how long people could hold on.  If nafta settles then interest rates will zoom, which shakes the tree.  Somehow, I think that 25% is not the bottom.

ps.  deliberate math error here.  But this lot would have been well over a million because of no height restrictions.

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