Arctic Ice volume following the Cold Fish Hypothesis

 Elvis Nino is going to fade away, nobody noticing his passing.  But the main hypothesis of interest is Freezing of the Thames.

Last winter, a horrendous Arctic spill washed Siberia and gave California all its rain.  This was ignored by the media.  This year, the spillway moves to Canada and the UK.  The only way for this not to happen is that it goes back to Siberia.

Last year at this time, the ice volume was on track to start the curve back up.  However, it plunged to very low levels.  That's because the end of the Gulf Stream wobbled and pushed warm water up into the Greenland Gap.  That heat energy effectively closed the Gap to Arctic air.  You can see that on the chart.

This year, it looks like a smooth curve and the highest minimum ice volume in recent times.  If it does this, then it is one more nail in the coffin of warmth.  

The  physics behind this is the simple fact that the air becomes very dense at 60 below.  For this recently past cycle of high ocean energy, the Arctic was regularly swept by powerful tropical plumes.  Last year that stopped, and the Arctic air became a huge bowl of thick air jelly, hemmed in by mountains.  There are only 3 gaps where it can spill - Siberia, mid-northern Canada, and the Greenland Gap.

The consequences are that we will follow some pages of the Little Ice Age book, especially Freezing of the Thames.  I understand that this river is a big concrete ditch now, but the temperatures will be the same.  The UK has had no summer this year, but it will have a heck of a winter.

The fun thing about a hard hypothesis is that it can fail like a transparent dress at an oldtimer party.  I would love it to fail, and then we can go back to the drawing board.  

ps. laying in for the harsh winter, we are canning a lot of tomatoes.  And the local store had 25 lb boxes of tomatoes super cheap.  

pps.  geez that was cold on the dog walk right now.