History and global warming and cooling periods

 So, let's ask the Artie about the Roman warm period and other such cycles.

The Roman Warm Period (RWP) was an era of unusually mild and stable temperatures that affected the European and North Atlantic regions from approximately 250 BCE to 400 CE. Contrary to older assumptions of a global event, current climate science indicates that these pre-industrial warm and cold phases were primarily regional climate anomalies, not globally synchronous "cycles". 

Quite exciting, this warm cycle is 'deprecated' because of leftwinger warmism.  Of course, all these warm and cold periods tend to be the northern hemisphere, where there is little evidence, and they can dismiss it by looking at Japanese records.

Still, they go on about the other cycles.

Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP) (c. 400–800 CE): A period of colder temperatures in many regions, which is hypothesized to have contributed to societal changes and migrations in Europe.

Medieval Warm Period (MWP) or Medieval Climate Anomaly (c. 800–1200 CE, with peak warmth around 950–1250 CE in the North Atlantic): Similar to the RWP, this was a regionally warm period, particularly in Europe, which facilitated Viking settlement in Greenland and increased crop yields. Again, this was not a globally uniform event.

Little Ice Age (LIA) (c. 1250–1850 CE): A subsequent period of significant regional cooling and glacier advance in North America and Europe, which saw harsh winters, crop failures, and famine.

These cycles seem to coincide with 'warm=happiness' and 'cold=dark ages'.  Quite amazing.  Of course, none of this has anything to do with today.

I find it sad that we are leaving a nice happy warm period.  'Of course, this is not a globally uniform event'.

Cold of a thousand flows

 

This is the start of what I think will be our winter.  We have a lot of little flows, while the Arctic is still in recharge.  No more of that warm weather during this time, we have continuous leakage.  Here, the question is answered of where we will get our huge snows.  We are looking for a source of 1700-ish ten foot snows.

The simple matter of no heat energy leaves us with cold desert weather for most of the continent.  However, our snow will come from these disturbances up the Eastern Seaboard.  

This is a perfect picture of 'continuous leakage' even through recharge cycles.  That's because the walls of the Arctic Headpond used to be both heat plumes and topography.  No heat now.

Today we get the perfect example of cold air hitting the residual ocean heat.  The warmies will go on and on about how warmth alone forms the hurricanes, but we know that it is temperature difference that provides the power.  Just imagine the radar picture showing snow.

Snow is great for us.  At least it is water, albeit in the form of 10 foot drifts.  Thinks of those poor people in the centre of the continent with no water at all.  Just think if we had physics and accurate long-term weather forecasts, everybody could have gotten ready for desert farming.  Another cost to be added to the warmie tab.

ps I note that thousands of Arties have hit my site again this morning.  Please note that this site is dedicated to another 'Enlightenment' cycle, and not groupthink cycles driven by 'fear and greed', of which you are a part.  You cannot use any of this to pump your cycle.  Looking back on history, I think the major weather cycles are linked to enlightenment cycles.  Neat, I shall expound on that one day.

ps thar she blows for natgas

Broken flows of cold

 Just a note on how topography controls the wind, if it is low thickness (altitude).

Since nobody reads this, it's just for me.  Note how perfectly the wind flows around Ellesmere Island.  If you see a perfect arc up here for an A8 Arctic blob, then you know the wind thickness is about 10 times land elevation.  We'll get these soon.

Natural Gas again

 

Yeah, up again.  They are still running lower than last year for storage.  Did Bill Gates rattle them?  I don't know.

Even with the hurricane, there's a lot of cold hitting us.  Maybe they noticed.

Canadian productivity at its usual crawl

 

Productivity is economic output (wealth) per worker hour.  It starts with a man and a stick for ploughing the ground to plant.  Then we go up from there.  We are on a rock-steady straight line of increasing productivity.  Use a shovel, get a horse, tractor, etc.  

In the office we had one person and a rubber stamp.  Have we gone much beyond that?  The problem is that throughout history, productivity increases have threatened jobs, but does it really?  You do more things, and no jobs are ever eliminated.

In Canada, we do not embrace productivity improvements.  We have unions (and leftwingers) who drag their feet for everything.  I am buying stuff direct from China, and it costs one fifth of anything made here.  In fact, I think they are holding up the price because of demand.  Is there any use to going to 1 tenth?

Also in Canada, there is tendency to whip the workers to get productivity.  That doesn't work.  I'm just rambling here.  We need all new approaches and we need to 'eat our own children', in terms of inefficiency.  Not happening, so things are going to have to get much worse in the cycle, so we can build up again.

The first great destruction will be in housing.  It has to crash to one quarter.  But it won't because it is being held up.  Is that productivity?  Again, we have to wait.  We are building transit that doesn't work, and will never be needed.  All wasted money, like windmills and solar put our productivity back down to the stick level.  Ontario is building baby reactors  -- really?

Bits of hurricane barrel into us

 

Everything is a mess, but some of the hurricane is giving Toronto rain.  Our normal weather has always been soggy this time of year, but this year we can use the rain.

Cold water has caused 'hurricane shrinkage'.  The Arctic is in recharge with a narrow flow out the south Greenland Gap.  We'll get a good spill somewhere soon.

Warmies desperate after Gates "Kiss of Death"

 

Death by cold is 10 times that of heat.  And we've got people dying at 100 times the rate, of other causes.

This is the most blatant example yet of 'selective vision'.  I must place them in the same league as trympies.

ps and with more stupidity, mushie impersonates Grok again, while on his stuff.

ps   and don't forget to send all your ID to the chatbot.

Hurricanes muck everything up

 That hurricane will suck up every last drop of heat energy down in the Caribbean.  

It's weird that an 'Arc du Cold' has formed in Texas and is sweeping down.

The Arctic stays in recharge.

The hurricane is being chased out by the cold.  

We don't need no education - Teacher leave us alone!

 

This is interesting.  Nobody reads my blog, because nobody reads any more.  Perhaps soon, people won't be able to read.  Who cares?  Doctors and Lawyers replaced.  My relative who runs a Callie startup has cut his legal bills by a factor of 10 by having the all the paperwork done, and just having a lawyer skim it.

Soon you won't need that.  Teachers will be replaced by cat-herders who use neural whips on the kids.  What will they do?  I lived through giving up on adding huge columns of numbers to tossing my slide rule.  What will hyper-parents do when all the tutor companies shut down?  They will just pay the big bucks for the Ivy League daycare universities, and hope the kids find a job somewhere, just to keep them away.

Even 10 years ago the ivy league business schools just took the money, and taught golf and sailing.  Neat.  An ivyleague teacher I know just gives up now.  The admin just says pass everybody or they'll sue us.

ps  - sorry, this will solve the problem

Bill Gates says give up on the whole climate change thing

 

He has attracted the lip-flappers who depend on clange.  Boy, are they mad!  But only someone like BG could state the obvious that there is no such thing as climate change.  Or, in his polite manner, it is below all the other concerns of life.

I would never say such a thing.  I don't have the guts.  I just hope that AI replaces all those parrots who say everything is caused by clange.  One guy says the BG's comments are 'not useful'.  Clange is a religion and totally not useful.  Is there any use in blaming everything on clange?

I really can't think of anyone else who could say this and have some impact.  There are no great scientists left, they were all killed by the clange fanatics.

ps a mighty whack at the tree

A6 cold outbreak coming down on us -- CANCELLED

 Honestly, I can't wait for once in a morning any more.  

This has nastiness in the video temperature forecast.  All white in a few days.

Have a full winter costume for Halloween.  At least I should be able to hang up my hat for a while, since this is sliding down.  

ps if this just slides down in the expected manner, then I won't be updating.  It should make it to Texas.

ps CANCEL!  Outbreak has shattered against a warm spear of air.  No energy.  Maybe I should stick to morning reports.

Natgas starts to zoom

 As I predicted, natgas is starting to zoom.  Those crazy people have gone outside, and panicked.  However, please note that I have been constantly wrong on this, and I have no gravitas, like all the other great people.  I just have the feeling that this is it, or maybe not.

At this time of year, natgas zooms when the crazy people realize that there is something called 'winter'.  Even now, if there is a warm spell, the price will go down again.  The real zoom comes if they think they'll run out of gas from storage.  

They almost ran out last year, and I have confidence to 80% that they will run out in February or March.  However, they never really 'run out', it just becomes harder and harder to extract, like the slurping of your milkshake.  I generally think of slurping as 'running out'.

There is a double-whammy of extreme cold, and that's the 'freezing' of the operating wells, as well as the stopping of fracking new wells.  It can all come together in a big boom.

But don't worry, all this is well beyond most people.  It's just fun to watch.  Canada is no fun because the supplies are good.  If we have an A9 Arctic spill, like a few years ago, all of the Texas gas will freeze, because they never learn anything.  Then look to gas going to 20 bucks.

The mechanics of a stationary hurricane

 We've have a couple of these this year.  In the old regime, a hurricane sucked heat energy from the hot water, as it moved rapidly.  It would leave cold tracks in the ocean temperature satellite plots.  These stationary beasts are something new.

I was laughing at the warmies about a 'pinprick' hurricane, but this thing is staying at one spot and growing.  A hurricane must suck up and dispose of heat energy.  That's how it lives as a machine.

So, I will call a different mechanical system on this.  It is pulling in heat energy from an increasingly wider area.  Of course, nobody measures things these days, it's all 'influencer science'.  Nevertheless, a good hypothesis emerges.  But I won't state it, because it is late in the morning, and my brain hurts.  No great reason to fiddle with the Scientific Method, if nobody uses it.

Eventually this thing must reach the limits of energy gathering, and take off.  It will weaken over colder water.

ps they've increased the number to 700 times more likely.

Shel Winkley, meteorologist at science non-profit Climate Central, says those hot ocean temperatures were made 500 to 700 times more likely because of climate change. The group’s analysis also suggests that climate change has strengthened Melissa’s top wind speed by about 16 km/h, increasing potential cost of its damages by 50 per cent. 

Greenland Tighty Whitey

 

Nothing going on today.  

The Great Arctic Beast is just breathing in, sending all that heat energy to outer space, and leaving behind cold maple syrup, which will soon run over us.

This shows the daily pulsing of the temperature.  Warmies go with the peak sun temperature, heat energy goes with the minimum night temp.  However, yesterday showed all the red coming right up, now it all stays cold.  Physics always wins over philosophy.

ps the Arctic is a great cure for this.

Arctic in full recharge, yet it stays cold

 The Arctic breathes like a big Halloween monster.  In and out.  Now, it is sucking in air from all around, after it's huge party of spilling frozen air over everything.  However, we are still cold.

That's because we have reached the point of zero heat energy in the north half.  That nasty pinprick hurricane has sucked out the last of Gulf ocean-water heat.  That's what those things live on.  You can see their cold tracks.

The Pacific heat energy ended with the big typhoons, now the plumes are as flat as a pancake.  We used to get 90% of our general heat from those plumes.  

We just have swirling cold.  This is now our stagnant, default weather.  All the warmies went 'hoo-hoo" over that in the summer.  Now we pay the cold piper.

Greenland is staying black during a recharge, it will soon be white.

That hurricane is too small to leave a cold track.  I can't wait to see the official warmie news about all this.  Any day now, it will be warm.

ps

ps a heavy frost on the dog walk

Tiny pinpoint hurricane to be rated very high

 If there is anything that needs physics in the weather biz, it is the rating of hurricanes.  It's all in the maximum wind speed.  It's like rating a light bulb by the centre speck temperature.

This is going to be rated a 4 for a minute.  The warmie press will go nuts.  This will be their vindication of predicting an actual hurricane season.

You can see that this speck has no energy.  Just like earthquakes, and my rating for Arctic spills, we need an energy rating.  It will happen the day the weather people use physics.  Ha!

ps and you can see there is no energy in the ocean plumes.  Without these plumes, we are into our 'default' desert weather, defined by latitude.

Australia's big news is that they have a tiny bit of ocean plume energy.  Their default is pure 'Mad Max'.  The warmies go nuts.

Arctic in hybrid state - No warmth in sight

 The Arctic has decided to be complex.  The Alaska end is in full recharge, while pouring out down the Greenland Gap.  We are still getting a minor flow over Toronto.

That little hurricane is mucking up the Gulf air, while the cold is keeping it away from the US.

These are 'full winter' conditions.

In full winter, we may no longer have a recharge period.  The Arctic becomes a continuous production factory.  or not.

ps I had another title - "No Warmth for the Wicked"

AI does better seismic picks

 Reference

There is nothing worse than trying to pick out earthquakes from a big messy seismic record.  It can't be done by humans, but an Artie can have fun with it, especially in putting together many seismometer records.  Humans only go for the larger ones.

You can see some structure here, which indicates that the Artie thing worked.  It's funny that the whole article is totally wrong on the physics, but it is interesting.

The Oklahoma earthquake swarm was building up to an M7, but it all stopped, because I suppose people didn't want their cities destroyed.  

Natural Gas price slack - Nose Hypothesis Wrong

 

Such a great A6 Arctic blob, and natgas is slack.  There goes my 'stick the nose out the door' hypothesis, which said that the price was controlled by what the traders felt outside.

It's funny how the news goes on and on about the storage levels, over the 5 year average, but less than last year.  Anyway, the price is determined by crazy people, and I should stay away.

ps starting to rise again.  

Cold as a trumpy eppie distraction

 We all know he arranged the whole island, but destroying the whitehouse has forced him back to 'Blame Canada'.  We'll hammer him with cold.

Our little A5 cold blob has really blossomed into a full arc.  Maybe it is too cold in Washington to keep the wrecking hammers going.  The Statue of Liberty is looking aghast.  Anyway, this cold was a little channel that was dying, but now has a full feed.  Let's put it up to A6, shall we?

We have full black for Greenland, and the Arctic is finally getting black.  You can see the full arc of the new A6 here.

The US Arctic reports have gone the way of the dodo, so we have to rely on the warmie Danes again.  Even they can't poof the results of ice extent.  We are now well into the 'traffic jam' of the Greenland Gap.  Ice extent become useless here, and ice volume is made up.

I am expecting the ice to fully engulf the spitz and svarl islands.  This is the full flag for the New Little Ice Age, or Major Ice Cycle.  It will be cold in the trumphouse with the insulation ripped off.

Since the us can't give any more weather reports, we expect them to run out of natgas this year, or maybe they'll dodge that bullet again.

ps whoops, forgot the video.  Shows the A6 is driven by a full Arctic flow, the old A5 never got that.

ps haha, Ford threw the monkey wrench

ps

New ballroom decorations, he saw the files, might as well save some money.

ps a shoutout for my engineering buddy George.  I such found out he passed away.  Time for Scotch.  We were the Two Dilberts in an insane office world.

Snow for S Ontario

 That's just their prediction.  Of course, it can't penetrate the Toronto Heatshield.  This completes my prediction of snow in October, according to the authority of me.

We have a gentle spur of cold air coming down on us.  

It's just the leftover of the A6 cold spill.  Europe is still getting a hunk, but the Arctic looks to be in recharge again, while spilling.  This is the advanced stage, which may mean continuous spills.  The November weather has advanced into October, and we could use the rain.  

Not much here.  The UK spill should stop, and we'll build up to another blob event.

ps not near Toronto, but we can hope.

State of the Oceans - Oct 22, 2025

 As we know, all geophysics is crumbling.  People are happy just making up long-term forecasts, and the public loves it.  My memory tells me I am always right, but I can't remember the details.  Anyway, nobody ever believes me, and they are still doing fine.

The Pacific Belt keeps getting colder.  We have warm water above the Atlantic belt, and that keeps the Gulf Stream pumping.  However, this is a very little amount of heat energy, and it is draining out.  You can start to see that the Gulf of Trumpia is getting raggy.  I expect that most of that heat energy will drain by the end of the winter.

The sub-polar North Atlantic controls Europe's weather, and it is cold, even with the contribution of the GS.  The Atlantic hurricane zone is dead.  The warmie prediction was for an 'active' hurricane season, and I said it was zero.  Guess who was right.

The best predictor for long-term weather is the Nino Zone.  Cold.  They keep trying to get a La Nina out of this saggy mess, but that has always been a cycle, not continuous.  I wonder when they will stop.  The Great Turnover of the Pacific has killed the old historical cycle.  However, the weather people will never fall on their swords, and will always come up with something.  It is human nature to keep being able to eat.

The warmies have faced the coming Arctic music, and forecasting cold.  This will drive up natgas prices in the US.  They refuse to give their reasoning.  Ha!