State of the Oceans - April 14, 2025

 We must enjoy all this physics while we can.  As I always repeat, there are two ways to forecast medium-term weather.  One is Influencer Science, and the other is the Scientific Method with Physics.  You can choose, I don't bother any more.

The sm way is to calculate and look at the total heat energy in the world, and figure out what it is doing.  All significant solar heat energy is gathered by the Pacific Ocean Equatorial Belt (to over 90%).  The other stuff is low-level, but not zero, to quote the media about every doomer story.  

We have the 'pure' sea surface temperature, and we then have the 'anomaly' which has a base average subtracted.  That base average is unknown and seasonally corrected, so I usually go with the 'pure'.  But in this case the anomaly plot shows a nice blip in warmth for the Pacific which is ruthlessly wiped out.  The Atlantic shows how it is slowly freezing.  That Pacific blip, along with some strong S. Hemi. summer heating has put up our tide gauge a bit.

The start of the Pacific equatorial current by Central America is as weird as I've ever seen it.  There is no heat being transferred to the West.  Our previous cycle (for recorded history) was to move heat to the west, and then have a big return of the piled heat, in an El Nino cycle.  That was followed by a little La Nina cycle.  All that is gone now.  There was an intensely complex 'heat mechanism'  that gathered solar heat energy.  That is gone and won't come back again for another 300 years (maybe).  It will take that long for physics to come back.

There is no heat in the Atlantic, so I expect the Gulf Stream to sink south again.  This will give the UK nice Jane Austen weather.

With the total turnover of the Pacific Belt feed, from Antarctica, I am still going with the 300 year cycle of the Little Ice Age.  It is at least the 20 year cycle of the 70's.  All the ocean temperatures from satellite are correct, all the land temperatures are buggered.  You can guess what the Influencers use.

ps I have decided that Warmyism as a religion, is perfectly fine.  It gives hope to those who are freezing, and prevents the despair of coldness.  Even the windmills can become roadside churches, and solar cells the tables of religious peace.  I will never oppose or make fun of it again.

ps 

And there sat Sam, looking cool and calm, in the heart of the furnace roar;

And he wore a smile you could see a mile,

and he said:  "Please close that door.

It's fine in here, but I greatly fear you'll let in the cold and storm —

Since I left Plumtree, down in Tennessee,

it's the first time I've been warm."

When you die, may you bask in everlasting warmth!