The Oklahoma Seismic Gap

The larger M4 thrusts are trying to fill in the Oklahoma Seismic Gap.  As I have said, there is no great explanation for this, but now I'm suspecting that they simply aren't injecting there.  That would be for 2 reasons, one is that the rock is tight all the way down, and the other is that they simply haven't got there yet.

I like to think they inject near cities and towns, so they can go for a beer at lunch.  This picture shows that the gap is totally empty.  Maybe the earthquakes don't like it because there's nobody to scare!  :)

Update:  Another M4.1 in Kansas.  They're much stupider than OK, no seismometers, and no fault plane solution.  :)

Update2:  They got a focal plane solution.

Totally normal (tension).  This is usually the first failure mode of stressed rock.  It results in very little PGV, unlike a thrust.

Update3:  It's looks like a record for significant earthquakes.  I'll be long in bed before the date closes.  I'm really beginning to think that all the mechanisms will converge, and this monster is much bigger than New Madrid.  I'll feel the big one here in Toronto!

Cottage Report - S29

It continued with a wonderful fall.

The maples are in full glory and everybody should be out to see them.

On the drive up, we had to brake hard twice for turkeys crossing the road.  They would make quite a mess on the grill.  Don't stop dangerously, or you may cause an accident.  They are better than a moose.  :)

I owe a poem for the cottage next door.

The Vampires Next Door

They don’t have the teeth, and blood makes them weep,
But I know they are Vampires by the hours they keep.

We believe in Early to Bed, and Early to Rise,
But next door, late is best, something to prize.

The sunrise is beautiful, and a wonder to me,
But for the Vampires, it is a sight they will never see.

They have breakfast at Noon, a time for our lunch,
Perhaps they could combine, and call it a Brunch,
But no, they have Lunch at Dinner, with nary a peep,
And for their Dinner, we are already fast asleep.

They are very nice, to a degree that is fine,
And one evening they invited us for Peaches and Wine,
I responded, that we were sleepy as can be,
But he cried out, “Good God, it’s only seven thir-tee!”

But perhaps they aren’t Vampires, as my thoughts are in swirls,
For Heaven has ‘blessed’ them, with three teenage girls!

Solar Farms Up North

Sometimes I don't have to take pictures, since I can always steal one.  I took the north route to the cottage over by Beaverton and ran into two of these monstrosities being built.  That annoyed me more than the two times I had to stop for turkeys.  :)

These are fine for California deserts, but now you have to subtract the carbon value of the farm land, and the fact that you aren't getting any sun.  These things will never pay back the carbon it took to build them.

As I zoomed by I was imagining the 10 foot snow drifts coming with the end of our binomial temperature blurp.  I suppose you could feed in the cheap electricity to melt the snow off the panels.  :)  Then why not trickle in a bit and sell it at ten times the cost?

Related to the Texas Conspiracy, I was thinking that in Canada we have as many conspiracies, but nobody ever mentions them -- too embarrassing.

Texas Earthquake Conspiracy

Article

"It's my personal belief," he said, "that the well water operator dialed it down to make them stop."

This is a great article.  If this seismologist becomes an Italian Fall-Guy, then it is fine, since he got lots of money and can go back to the farm.  I think this job is 90% political, and I could never do it.  I would soon go crazy and stand up and yell:  "You're all a bunch of idiots!"

But the heart of the matter is the Conspiracy of Azle.  Either he knows all the details and is actively covering it up, or they are keeping him in the dark.  Not nice either way, and I feel sorry for him.


*Conspiracy of Azle - As the mayor guesses, they had a saltwater injection well, and switched it to fracking waste.  Tons of earthquakes later, and hot political times, they quietly switched back again.  Earthquakes stopped.

This poor guy can never expose that since it involves his employer.  He'll just muddle on, sucking in the money, until they get rid of him.  That's too bad, since if they just aired this, it would solve all their problems.  They could use the Fish Treatment on frack waste and keep on with their party.

The OK earthquakes are frustrating me with their very slow pick-up, but now they are getting regular high threes.  I'm only interested in thrust-4's, but they are slowly coming.  What will happen is that they will soon get their large earthquakes, the Feds declare them a disaster area, and the insurance twits scream.  That would start a Fed inquiry that might just penetrate the Texas Conspiracy.

Alaska earthquake M6.2

This was 102 km deep, and the PGV must have been less than 2 cm/s, although the report isn't in yet.

Very nice tectonics, but get this.

The thing was mostly strike-slip with a bit of subduction thrust.  Very weird, and means absolutely nothing.  Can't wait to see the PGV's and see the soil amplification.

Update:  Reference.   Ok, if your office looks like this after such a teeny, deep quake, get out of town!

Update:  At this point, I only see 2 records of about 6 cm/s on PGV.  The last earthquake of this size showed a general amplification of 5 times between rock and soil.

Cottage Report - S25

Beautiful fall days.  I went with the dog during the week.  Didn't feel like fishing with the crazy dog, too much like work.

All the maples are at full colour.  When the water is low, we burn branches from thinning.  Had it going most of the day, and kept throwing sticks in the water for the dog.  The other day she put her pinkies into the water and refused to get a stick.  Today, she was wild.

Big Geotechnical Accident

On the dog walk today.  So neat.

So the story starts like this.  The ground is getting soupier and soupier.  They're on the edge of a slope and I knew there would be a problem.

Boom!

This is on City property.  This is the house I told you about that is taking forever because the owner is acting as contractor and dredges up the sleaziest workers ever.

But don't worry, this whole thing will be covered up quickly.

A giant towtruck has arrived.

They are doing slight modifications to the parkland.

I'm giving Toronto a link to this blog.

Update:  Wow, the Toronto 311 email has really gone downhill.  Now they say they might respond in 48 hours.  Where are the Fords to shake this up?  :)

Update2:  I'm sure Dog Ford would be interested, since had we been earlier, my dog Roxie could have been killed.  (Dog Ford is the pitbull who will replace Rob when ... you know...)

Slightly bent and battered.  The stooges have gone replaced by the owners bricklaying, and even wearing hardhats.  :)

Weekend summary - s22

Actually, there is nothing to report.  I stayed home this weekend, nursing my cold.  The rest of the week looks beautiful, and I'll go to the cottage with the dog again.  No earthquakes whatsoever.  If we want to extrapolate that observation, then earthquakes are history.  :)

Oklahoma earthquakes - the big thrusts finally come

A big M4 thrust in the 'no man's land' between the zones.  This had an Intensity of 6, which is one of the highest so far.  It would have been felt as an explosion, and probably heard.

Although I have been expecting the arrival of the thrusts, the location is surprising.  I have no clue why there is this big gap.  I attribute it to banding in the Precambrian which can be seen in the seismic sections.  If it does start to fill in, then it is Zone #3.

Update:  Not a speck of real news on this.  I would love an interview of the 3 reports of MMI 6.

Today is Rock Mechanics Day at Bruce black hole

Reference

Could only stand to look at the stream for a minute.  I'm glad to see that the CNSC rock mechanics expert is perfectly happy with everything.

I find it amazing that it possible to narrow your vision down to the point where you are happy.  I could never do that, and it is good for positive mental health that others are able to.  :)

Update:  That's all for the hearings.

Texas is for Texans

The world looks on in horror as Texas totally rewrites science text books.

Reference

The new books are to be written in 'Texas New Speak', which totally eliminates any word that is not in the King James Bible, as well as any controversial words which could somehow be related to sex.  In all, two thirds of of the English language met the cutting room floor.  As well, they dropped most prepositions, articles and such, which all Texans tend to swallow when they talk.

Some of the chapters are entitled "Science Bad", "Sex Bad", and "Think Bad".

With this final shoe dropping, the only Texans going to non-Texas universities, will be cheated through for football.

Geofish has rewritten all his findings for Texan earthquakes in a way they will understand:

Earthquakes Bad.

Cottage Report - S16

Fine, cold October weather in September.  All alone with the dog. Will cut more firewood, but fishing alone with the puppy is nearly impossible.

Update:  I was fighting a horrible sinus cold, so I had a sauna and jumped into the lake -- nearly died.  Then I dropped a vital piece of steel in the lake, and the next day I had to go snorkelling -- nearly died.  I finally went fishing in the exact place the fanatic neighbour goes -- nothing.  Still got this horrible cold.

Linux - New Kernel a bit rough

All of a sudden my usb disks stopped mounting for me, only as root.  No hope with anything on the Internet.  I had to run a new kernel 3.17rc5.  It gave an error, and lots of bling on the startup, but it works ok.  I can now mount my usb sticks with my ordinary user.

Dolphin is now giving extra options, so I think that was a problem.

Update:  If you want those search options then install 'baloo'.  Then go away for a day.  :)

New earthquakes in Texas

Texas is back to trying waste injection.

They do everything in secret, but I am a bit surprised.  I think the ones around Dallas are just leftovers, but these new ones by Abilene are definitely injection.  It's right on the Oklahoma megathrust, so they have perfect conditions.  Now, if they just tried the Fish Treatment for the waste, they wouldn't have any problems, but I suspect they will just go on until the earthquakes get bigger and bigger.  Must have something for that new seismologist to do.  :)

Hurricanes make no headway against Mr. Arctic Vortex

Once again it is very cold in Canada.  The cold Arctic Vortex envelopes us.  All those baby hurricanes coming off Africa are strangled in their cradles.  :)

So now there are Two Big Questions:

How big do the earthquakes have to get in Oklahoma?

How cold does it have to get before Climate Scientists realize that Math came up and bit them?

Update:  Had to turn on the furnace, first time for the season.

Update2:  On the other side of Mexico, a new typhoon (hurricane) spinning.

Oklahoma M3.7 earthquake, back to the first mechanism

Well, we're back to the future, with the standard earthquakes for the first mechanism.

They might as well just cast these solutions with a rubber stamp.  :)  This line has strike-slip with some tension.  We should be getting 4's with the identical stamp.

As I'm constantly whining about, we need matched thrusts to keep this up.  Remember, by definition, if we didn't have a sustaining (growing) mechanism, these things would just peter out.

Addition:  First reported as 4.1, now everything is getting discounted, time to recalibrate.

Napa earthquake strong ground motion

Remember, this is the earthquake that I caused by visiting the Bay Area for a day.  :)  It was an M6 strike-slip earthquake, which shouldn't cause any damage in California, but it did, simply because there were a lot of weak buildings still standing.  Most of the rest of the state has had all the weak stuff knocked down.

It also showed that all the retrofit for historic brick buildings isn't worth a shoot.  This was also shown in Christchurch.  Unlike that earthquake, we have a lot of strong ground motion records.

Records

Soft soil seems to show 50-100 cm/s, which is enough to knock down buildings.  Nearby recordings on firm ground showed 5 cm/s, which is strongly felt and can knock things off buildings.  People get alarmed at about a fraction of a cm/s, so there is a big span.

Well-built structures should shrug off 100 cm/s, and I really believe that all structures should be built to ride out this level of shaking.  Sadly, this is not the case.

To derail a train, or to do anything serious to 90% of office buildings, you need 100 cm/s, which you only get within 5 km of a fault on soft ground.  That makes all this talk of an early warning system a Grand Stupidity, much like the Bruce Deep Thing.  That doesn't mean it won't get built.  Over the years, I have accommodated myself to the concept that Grand Stupidities are a necessary part of the human condition.  :)

Early warning systems only work at 5 cm/s, and if you are sensitive to that, then you got bigger problems than a distant earthquake.

Additional:  Actually, we all need an "Anti-Warning System", since people panic and leave a building at 0.1 cm/s.  The PA would go:  "We are about to experience mild earthquake shaking.  Please sit down, secure your coffee, and enjoy the ride."

Add2:  Nice article on wine barrels.

Amusement in the Bruce Deep Thing

Reference

"We will check our checkers."  I mean, really, who will check the checker-checkers?

How many checks can a checker-checker check,
If a checker-checker could check checks?

Update:  Even Funnier

Mr. Greening, who is scheduled to testify on Wednesday, said he doesn’t trust either OPG or the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, whose staff is advising the joint review panel.

I was just thinking about that guy, what a crank!

Update2:  It's on the tv right now.  My poor deluded Society, they have to go with it, or they know which way the wind blows.  There is only one end to this, they can blab, but physics will rule the actual construction.

Oklahoma starts the flurry of mid-four earthquakes

M4.3.  I was thinking they would just jump to high 4's, but this place is slow....   As per the program, we'll have a flurry of 4's, followed by a resting phase of high 3's.  They bumped this one up, so it might be mostly normal (tension).

Blah, this is out in the boonies, so they don't have a focal mechanism.  We'll get good ones for the ones close to the city.  This one follows the opening of Mechanism #2 and that thrust earthquake a while ago.  We are really ready for thrusts on #1.

Update:  Wow, first a 4.2, and now knocked down to a 3.9, this has enjoyed a roller coaster.  Both earthquakes have had the highest discount ever.

Update2:  The focal mechanism is normal, total tension, on a weird plane.

Update3:  No flurry, I was basing that on a real 4.3.  If we get a mid 4 thrust on the main plane, then it's a flurry.

Earthquakes Work Their Way to Wichita, Kansas

Poor Kansas, like a deer in the headlights.

They are just experiencing the stress disturbance zone, of the OK Mechanism #2.  Since nobody in the US knows what is happening geologically in the next state, they are at a loss.  Nobody in the world has such severe Geological Balkanization.  This was an M3.9, and since they have no seismometers there, we have no focal solution.  Most likely a strike-slip.

If they are actually injecting there, we can get Mechanism #3.  I recommend that every fly-by-night injection outfit start drilling on these trends.  100% chance of success, but you better make back all your money in two years, when you can just abandon the drill hole empty and leave it to the taxpayers to clean up.  :)

Update:  Quickly slashed to a fire-sale 3.1.  Both of these earthquakes have the highest discount I've seen in a while.

Update2:  Another M3.5, perhaps just a flurry of little quakes.  -- I am a line-earthquake for the county ......

Cottage Report - S7

An absolutely gorgeous weekend, once everyone cleaned up after the tornadoes.  No damage up at the cottage, sunny in the day, very cool at night.  No bugs, and the water was warm enough for the young people after our 2 day heat wave.  The neighbour gave me a 3.5 lb smallmouth bass.  His is a sad story...

The Lost Fisherman of the Lake

Let me tell you the story of a fisher-man,
Who could catch any fish, as fast as one can.

But one day he fell into Fisherman Hell,
when he caught the elusive Picker-el.

One bite and he uttered an ecstatic yell,
This is the best fish come high water or Hell.

But now he was caught in a curse of Fate,
"By God, no other fish shall lay on my plate!"

But now he is cursed forever and a day,
To slave in his boat, throwing his life away.

You see him in the evening, near the cliff by the bay,
Cursing "By God, it's another giant bass, what the hey!"

His neighbour just laughs and has another meal,
Of the best fish in the world, the flavour unreal.
He never wants to try the Fish of Hell,
It can go to blazes, the damned Picker-el.

But God is a joker, for goodness sake,
When it comes to Pickerel, there's only one to a lake!

Deep Bruce Thing throws me out

Dear Mr. Asmis,

The DGR Joint Review Panel has directed the Secretariat to advise you that the below submission will not be accepted or included in the public record. The Panel has made the following determinations:
•     The submission does not add new information that will aid the Panel's deliberations,

Please note that the Public Hearing Procedures, including section 8.11, continue to apply.
Thank you,
DGR Secretariat

******************

Now, that's just plain sad.  They don't want anything to do with the Precambrian or grout.  Oh well, I tried.

ps.  I know you guys out there.  Please don't say the whole thing is corrupt.  That's so Quebecish!  Say rather, that the whole thing is set up as to have only one conclusion.  :)

Bell congestion issue back - sync no surf

You will recall that a while ago I ran into this bug often.  There is no support for Linux users.  It's basically a congestion issue, if you run into congestion on the higher channels, the modem totally craps out.  Then you have to do a power cycle.  Hits mostly when using bittorrent or ip phones because of multiple connections.

At the time I really screamed.  First I went to the CRTC that this was a long-standing issue and was equivalent to abuse of monopoly, since it eliminated ip phones.  They had looked into this and declared it a service issue (wieners!).  Then I went to the service reporting thing and magically I was switched to an empty channel.  I had the high-power ladies of 'Escalation' pursuing me for weeks.

Trouble is that an empty channel always becomes filled in a few months.  This has happened to me several times.  Now I'm getting the whole thing again.  I shall soon go through my procedure.  :(

Neutral Frack Waste - Part 2

Once you have your stress corrosion (sc) tester up and running, it is a simple matter to make the frack waste as neutral to sc as deep water.  That should merely involve making it saturated in silica.  The trick is to find the minimum and cheapest amount of treatment to do the job.

Crushed Granite Gneiss.  I like this one since it involves shipping down tons of good Canadian Gneiss, from the exposed megathrusts.  But it behoves the question of what to do with the contaminated filter media.  Next option.

Add soluble silica.  I'm sure a small amount of water glass is sufficient, but it requires testing.

Mix with deep water.  It is possible that the deep water carries extra buffer, but I doubt it.

Oklahoma will never be interested in this.  Once they have their 6 or 7, they won't want any injection.  Ohio, Texas or Arkansas should be interested since they can make a lot of money.  The final test is injecting the treated water down a known active well.  Increasing seismic activity means the test fails.

Further thoughts:  The situation at Azle inspired me for this.  For many years they had injected deep water with no effects.  Then they were greedy and started injecting frack waste.  Many earthquakes later all Hell was unleashed and the Big Powers forced them to go back to deep water.  The earthquakes stopped.  **This is all inferred, since they are keeping this secret.

Treating Frack Waste so as to Not Cause Earthquakes - Part 1

What the hey, I'll give up my millions and open this to the world.  After all, that's what those celebrities did.  :)  (OMG!)

It's all about what you think is causing the earthquakes.  If you are the USGS you think it is just pressure, and you can't do anything.  If you are smarter than them, then you know it is stress corrosion (sc)

I came across sc when I was studying the great URL experiment in Canada.  This was a test run for a deep nuclear waste repository, now all wasted, because they think they can locate in karst.  :)  The essence was that all friction in rock is tied up by quartz to quartz contact, and that some things could weaken that.

The experiment to prove all this (might cost $10) is to take two quartz tips, compressed and sheared.  The expensive part would be the testing frame and micrometers, but ultrasonics would work as well.  Immerse in deep Texas rock water and observe no action.  This water has been injected for years without earthquakes.

Now immerse it in frack waste, or tap water, and watch it go.  Does this mean anything to anybody?

--to be continued

Oklahoma has twins!

That's right, OK now has two mechanisms.  I always wondered about that upper zone, and now the latest M3.7 is strong thrust.

I think we shall call it a smaller mechanism, but still good for at least a 6

This is the exact mechanism I would expect for the larger thrusts.  There are almost no 'felt reports' since everybody is sick of them, but the MMI 4 is expected.  If anybody would talk about it, it would probably be 'explosive'.  They really can't rely on felt reports any more, and should put in wide dynamic range seismometers.

Cottage Report - Labour

Not great weather, cloudy, windy, sometimes hot, sometimes cold.  Started cutting wood for the fall.

Neighbour took me out fishing in his 'Batmobile of fishing boats'.  We saw lots of fish on his scanner, but didn't catch anything.  :(

Saw a friendly coyote just in the back.  She was just acknowledging that she finished the hit on the two groundhogs that were eating our tomatoes.  I also had a contract with the fox for the red squirrels, one with the falcon to keep the wild turkeys away, but nothing for the bear.  Now, I need to see the wolf for those darn beavers, but the cougar will do as well.  :)