State of the oceans -- Nov 25-30, 2020

 Wow, the ocean currents were not available for 2 weeks, and then 5 days late.  Perhaps the guy got covid.

The big news (change) is the Atlantic belt.  It has gone into full winter mode, with a full reversal, and very little heat energy coming up to the Gulf.  But that place still has a goodly amount of heat.

The Pacific is continuing a massive push to the west, sucking up all the Antarctic water.  That cold water has reached Indonesia, the home of all our weather.

That's the surface temp anomaly, which takes off the expected value.  The water is still quite warm, but below 30C needed to generate a tropical plume.

This is the 5 day plume video.  If we get hit high, it's 30 below, middle is middling weather, and a low hit sucks up Gulf warmth.  These hits are now tending to be high.

If this confuses you, check my background site on the right.

ps.  the UK is finally hitting my prediction of being Labrador.  This reckoning was delayed a couple of years by the odd ocean currents.  Now, the ocean currents are 'clean' and predictable and the UK is screwed.

pps.  We just had a full Alberta Clipper hit to Alaska.

Fun times, dig up the remaining carrots.

Earthquake: Izmir Strong Ground Motion

 Reference

Yeah, I can do a little bit of earthquake stuff, which is my main love, but we are in an earthquake drought, perhaps caused by climate change.  :)

The ground velocities (pgv) are a factor of 10 stronger on the soft muck, than the stiff soil.  As with Mexico City, I suspect a factor of 100 compared to the surrounding rock, but they didn't instrument that.

The pgv of about 20 cm/s is the point where the worst garbage buildings collapse and there is some structural damage to others.  This is what happened.  Tall buildings had no damage, and it is assumed that they are on the rock, but who knows?

Usually the pgv levels are as follows.

1 cm/s - everybody panics and runs out into the street.

10 cm/s  - coffee spills, alcohol bottles act like being attacked by a crazy lady

20 cm/s - piles of bricks fall down.  Really bad brickwork falls on people in the street

40 cm/s - cheap condos crack and tilt

80 cm/s - cheap condos fall over, significant damage to everything

Anything above that is Wonderland.

Weather patterns -- November 26, 2020

 

We have very weak tropical plumes from the Pacific.  These have slashed down and brought up warm Gulf air.  Right now a plume is hitting the Yukon which should give us a full Alberta Clipper.  But the patterns are very unstable.

That little warm spot near Africa is fading away, so the UK should get full winter.  

The ice volume curve is tucking into the historic curves, so the ice is on like donkey kong.  There is no current from the Pacific, so it should be a good year.

ps.  right now, Toronto is in 'static' or default weather.  That's when we have no major ocean influences.  Dead air and super hot in July, dead air and super cold in January.  

Ivanka tries to go back to the warmies

 Reference

The warmies have the money and influence.  No hope there.  She could go to Tulsa.

Covid -- Masks useless after an hour

 Reference

Yeah, I wasn't going to touch this with a 10 foot pole.  But the kids inspired me when they drove to Hamilton to have a nice restaurant dinner, while Toronto is going into a lockdown.

They ask all the right questions, but nobody is going to answer, since it involves physics and nobody is left alive to address the issue.

ps.  in 2 weeks we'll get a Thanksgiving-type surge because everybody went into panic mode before the Toronto shut-down.  I'm pretty sure that had we gone to protective glasses instead of masks, we would cut it 90%, but that's just me, ignore it.  

And now, dinosaurs

 Reference

This is interesting.  If you follow physics, then the world was turning over the temperature, because the tectonic plates were separating.  That means the dinos were dying out, and mammals were taking over.  The meteor was irrelevant.

However, I read this article that we would still have dinos if the meteor hadn't impacted.  My opinion is that this is total garbage.  It took a while, but I found the right quote in the article.

"The main point of what we are saying is that we don't really have enough data to know either way what would have happened to the dinosaurs," Bonsor said. "Generally in the fossil record there is a bias towards a lack of data, and to interpret those gaps in the fossil record as an artificial decline in diversification rates isn't what we should be doing.

In short, it means that they don't have a clue, but they want to make a headline.  Flip a coin.  I'll still go with it being too cold for dinos.  Warm, fuzzy mammals won the election, trumpies lost.  :)

Unprecedented La Nina

 Yeah, yeah, the term means nothing, but since we got these maps, I've never seen this.  That's like 5 years.

That's the temp anomaly map, which is only a degree or two.  Nevertheless, it is a powerful thing.  On a full El Nino reversal, the map is red the other way, as warm water reverses back over the Pacific.  

This has caused really weird Pacific tropical plumes.  I have no idea what will happen, but we had some nice warm weather because the plumes totally stopped and allowed warm Gulf air to hit us.  The Pacific plumes have stopped normal movement.  I expect them to eventually hit the Yukon and come at us with a cold clipper.  But who knows?  Last year we had a very warm weird halvsie El Nino, and now it's a massive La Nina.

For some reason, the Arctic freeze-up has gone weird as well.

That change in slope was associated with a strong Pacific current last year, but this year there isn't one.  I have to wait for the patterns to settle down, right now, everything is chaotic.  Enjoy  a depressive Christmas!  Get the snowblower working.

Stupid is, as Stupid does

 Reference

I love this study.  They basically say that if get rid of all the humans we can have robots design and build nuclear power plants in a factory and roll them to a site.  They seem to blame everything on site conditions.

Yet, they have to backtrack a bit for the unions.

“Many of these involve human jobs and it is important, especially in this time, where there’s such a need to create high-quality sustained jobs for people, this should also factor into the engineering design process. So it’s not that you need to look only at costs.” 

Phew!  As I just said, I love these studies.

ps.  Somebody's Hubby is out of a job when we have Ammie-Nuke.  Just order it.  :)

Covid - Garbage in Garbage out computer modelling

 Reference

I suppose our power-doctors will take this article and do something horrible with it.  Anyway, we need the viability half-life of particle size to make sense of this.  Also I have no faith in a mask that has been used for an hour.  

We go on and hope this will go away.  Last year at this time, we had covid running rampant and we still had our Christmas parties.  Some of us nearly died, but blah blah.

Also, it is nearly impossible to get a flu shot now.  I think I will just give up this year.  There won't be any flu going around.  No parties.

Gods of Global Warming - Kate Marvel

 Reference

This is an interesting article.  She has a background in theoretical physics, so I can't make a math joke.  I just think the living is much better as a carbon warmer.  She just does the modelling, assuming there is a diffuse warming element.  They don't actually model the carbon.

So, with all these people supporting the carbon hypothesis, there is no chance of it all falling apart in the next few years when the world temperatures go down.  They'll just play on.  

ps.  I've done a bunch on these people, who are extremely talented on social media.  It's through their efforts that every storm, fire, heat wave etc, is quickly drafted to the warmie cause.  :)  They don't do so well when they try to claim snowstorms and cold spells.  

State of the Oceans -- Nov 17, 2020

 The ocean current map is running always 2 days late.  Probably covid, but beggars can't be complainers.

A very interesting pattern has started in the Atlantic belt.

The reversal off South America is going up Africa, when it always tucks in south and goes around again.  I have never seen this.

This has been causing a persistent plume up from Africa which zooms over Europe and digs into the Arctic ice.  The result is a big bite out of the ice and a slowdown in ice volume creation.

Look at that huge bite of warmth, up Norway.  This is causing cold air to be pushed over onto us, while delaying the full Arctic freeze-up.  I expect the warmie press to get on this soon.  

Covid doctors flailing in the dark

 Reference

I promised myself to leave covid stupidities behind.  But this article had an engineering professor who completely forgot about physics.

“Unfortunately, the hard reality is that we don’t know that much,” said Dionne Aleman, a University of Toronto engineering professor who studies health-related systems.

Really?  Where's the physics?  I just give up.  :(

ps.

When they say 'modelling', it's warmie modelling, which is a simple extrapolation.  That's the extent of their math, no sampling theory, no fundamentals, etc.  And who cares?  :)

pps.  It is my dream that we can all get away with goofy lab or swim goggles.  Everybody a nerd!

more -- these look good for parties, about $2 each on sale.  I haven't tried these ones, but a full face shield is better than just goggles. 

OPG proud of itself

 

Yeah, I'm happy for the builders.  I was totally wrong about OPG being able to make a copy of Darlington for their refurbishment.  They did it.  But the rating is now so low, that they want to make a 'small' reactor.  They don't indicate the size, but I feel they will push the definition of 'small', since they don't do anything small.  Nevertheless, this dinky nuclear reactor (DNR) will force the seismic-death-trap Pickering to run forever.

Can't wait to hear more details.

ps.  I now dream that their stupidity cycle is over.  Everybody is bright and happy.  I hear nothing, and I don't want to hear anything.  I believe everything the PR department puts out.

Toronto real estate chart is confusing

 

I read that this is due to the fact that the feds have injected more debt money into the economy than the amount that was lost due to covid.  It's a weird thing that the knees are being knocked out (condos) while the top keeps marching up.  With nobody wanting to go to the office, I wonder if downtown offices will be converted to condos.  :)

Custom fish t-shirts

 Got my stencil machine back to work.

That's for our wine-making guy.  At my rate for miserable work at $100 an hour, I might not get many sales.

How about:

Hug a Warmie -- She's cold

Don't spit no covid in my eye, bro

99% is not 100

I want some basic physics, please

The Arctic Ice is fine

Power People Can't Do Math

ps.  oh, and I want to put this on a t-shirt, but I can't figure it out yet.

Covid - 99 is not 100

 

I'm not really saying anything right now, but I'm doing a few headlines.  

This virus is COMMON COLD II, but more deadly.  In a rational world, we'd be doing some physics, and pushing cannabis as an anti-inflammatory, but we have this.

New Zealand and China don't mind being totally shut down to outsiders.  That's what they do anyway.  In Canada, the virus will always drift in with the wind, or those sneaky minks.  As for the headline, that's the quote from a smartie scientist.  It means you can stomp it down by 99% and it will always come back.

Ocean currents - November 10, 2020

 The currents came in, a day late as usual, but, hey, those guys are in the States, the land of interesting times.

The big news is that the Pacific isn't pumping in the warm water, like last year.  Too bad I'm the only one in the whole world who thinks these things are significant.

This makes the ice volume curve the steepest build-up IN HISTORY!  (yeah, for warmie hyperbole!).

UNPRECEDENTED!  But enough of that.  Below, the Atlantic is really neat.

The Gulf Stream is totally bifurcated (snake's tongue).  Needless to say, I've never seen it like that, but nobody keeps a history.  The equatorial belt is dumping all the heat to the south, and so we must bundle up for a really cold winter.  Just like the 70's when I went up winter camping at Georgian Bay every weekend at 40 below.  Yeah for cold!  Keeps the murder hornets away.  Might kill off my poor possums.

You won't catch the guardian making headlines like these!  

Cold clipper started

 

The MIMIC has been out for a few days.  This is the 120 hour recording and shows a Pacific plume hitting NA exactly right for a clipper.  End of the nice weather.

World temperatures go down

 

They have gone down this month a significant bit.  Let's celebrate Biden's victory!  If you ignore the last bit, and extrapolate on the rising part of last winter's Pacific Reversal, then you would splash the headlines with "2020 to be warmest year ever'.  Unfortunately, reality sucks.

Perhaps warmies can be comforted that the North Polar temps are up.  That's why we've been having trouble with the ice.  But that's over now.

I think all the stupidity effort should go into covid for now, and then the warmie effort can start for July.  It will be hot.

Covid here, covid there, covid everywhere

 Nail down that physics, because the 'pure medical' approach is hopeless.  

Reference

Ref2

We need the physics of the half-life of particles, versus their float time.  If it floats like dust then it is still 10 times more likely to get into the eyes than up the hairy, sticky nose.  I suspect that floating particles have a half-life of a minute or so.  They won't find the eyes.  Large particles that are shot around in trump parties and anti-maskers probably have a half-life of hours.

This is important for the design of eye protection.  But it will never happen.  Getting the power-people to admit they were wrong, is like getting trump to say he lost.  Blah.

So, in summary.  No vaccine because the dang thing is mutating a mile a minute.  Put down your pet mink!  Masks are useless, get eye protection, right now that's a full face shield.  One day it just might be safety glasses, but physics needs to be done.  la la la

“99 percent isn’t 100 percent. If there is a mutation that accounts for just one percent of the population, and you suppress or eradicate the majority, you can drive up some trait of that one percent, whether it’s virulence or transmissibility, and then it’s a different ballgame.”

That quote also goes for masks.

ps.  if all the doctors are poofing about floating particles, then the masks aren't stopping them from being generated.  N95 gives us 5% out.  

pps.  next time, in order to preserve power, they'll say full triple mask with a plastic bag, and full face shield, black.  You won't be able to breath or see, but they'll keep their power.

ps.  I could be wrong, but I wonder how they are handling mink mutations.  The numbers don't seem right.

The week that was

 Back from a holiday in Huntsville.  That place is booming from Toronto refugees.  People expect to earn Toronto wages out in the country.  This is an unstable situation.

All the time we played cnn on the tv, because that's what they do.  We got sick of 'Breaking News'.  But I don't have a great inspiration to write anything.

I will write about global weather patterns.  That 'super typhoon' totally reset the tropical plumes pattern.  We started out being warm from a straight-west plume and then all the Pacific plumes started spinning.  This allowed the Gulf air to warm us.  Yeah!  

The ice volume curve is making it's big move into the pack.  Check my backgrounder on this.  There is no more heat energy coming up from Europe, and so the Arctic settles into default weather, which is darn cold.  The warmies are left with Biden's win, but there is no money for their fancies.

As Antarctica warms for their summer, we'll have news about the ice breaking up.  That always gets them going.  The UK is hoping for our 'Indian Summer', but good luck with that.

Geofish going into hibernation

 Every once in a while, the world stupidity gets to me.  Normally, I laugh at all of it because there is nothing you can do.  I just record it for a posterity where people can do math and physics.

We are going into an ice cycle.  Whether it is just a classic 20 year thing, or the big one, we won't know for quite a while.  

Our covid killer cold will merge with flu.  

And remember -- where there is no physics, go with heavier masks.  :)

The War Against Particles

 

This is funny, in that the good doctor is saying something about science.  I've had these masks, they are unbreathable.  Everybody is going for phony bandanas.  Get a face shield, instead, but wearing these outside in the winter is fog heaven.

Such simple physics to do.  But if they did physics, then the whole non-physics shebam would collapse.  So, no physics.  Masks just don't work, get eye protection.  One person in the room with a saturated mask will get everybody through the eyes.  Masks don't like moisture and they can take very little load.  Do the dang physics!

Anyway, I am going up north and am giving up on this Grand Stupidity.  Covid is now a deadly cold with no cure.  Give up testing, assume you and your dog have it all the time.  Have fun.

**don't let the doctors do the physics - OMG, can you imagine?

ps.

xx

Perfect vortex around Antarctica keeps up Ozone Hole

 I can't get used to the time change, so I'm waking up early and have to write something.

These are the low-level winds.  It's all the weather people pay attention to.  The winds swirl around low pressure areas, which are high-energy areas when considering tropical plumes.  The winds are rotating around Antarctica, and these are real 'transport' winds as opposed to the Jet Stream, which is a myth in terms of transport.

I've never seen such a pattern, so far into their summer.  It's keeping the ozone hole going, which is larger and deeper this year, unless you go back 20 years.  The only thing that the warmies/ozoners can say is that it would be 'far worse', had not the world spent a trillion dollars getting rid of perfectly fine freon.  However, the ozone hole is a result of extreme cold in stratosphere, and not chlorine.  Nasa proved that themselves before shifting the evidence.  So sad.  Next year, will they still use the 'could've been worse' thing?  Or the year after when it gets worse than anything in the 80's?  I love these guys.  :)

In the north, the winds are swirling around an ice lock.  If it gets super cold, then winds have a tough time getting through.  As explained in my backgrounder, an ice lock is the most powerful thing we have going.  It locks in ice advances when they come.  The only thing that breaks up continental glaciation is isostatic sinking.

The ice volume curves finally seems to be cutting in.  I expect it to go through the pack and reach a new peak, because no Pacific reversals are in sight.

Warming air coming directly from the Pacific

 

This is exciting.  The Pacific tropical plume is hitting at mid-BC.  If it had hit higher, through Alaska and the Yukon, it would bring down an Alberta Clipper.

If the plume hit directly at Vancouver, then we would have somewhat mild weather.  A plume that 'axes' down below that dredges up very warm air from the Gulf of Mexico.  And you never know where the next one will hit, but the patterns are determined by ocean currents, and they will usually stay stable for a couple of months.

Perhaps that hurricane will warm us up for a while.

Ocean currents - Oct 31, 2020

 The new maps are in.  As stated in my background, these are the vector drawings of Argo floater movement.  There are thousands of these things, but sometimes they just aren't in important areas.  Case in point is the cold-water feed of the Pacific belt.

It's back again, full blast, coming straight up from huge-ozone-hole Antarctica.  It wasn't really there last time, probaby due to a lack of monitors.

Below is the Alaska Pacific current feed.  It has reversed.

Again, it may have never been there, but the freeze-up is still at a good rate, but starting from a low spot.

ps.  we are seeing really weird signals in the north Atlantic.

This is combined with sea surface temps.

The northern Gulf Stream has split in two, with a cold one going north, and the warm one going below Spain.  Neat.  I'm pretty sure the water around the UK has never been so cold.

Natural gas prices start to hit earthquake levels

 

We last had Oklahoma earthquakes during that last spike in October 2019.  Since then, almost nothing.  

High prices and the storage is high.  Neat.

That's the storage report.  Last year I predicted new peak prices for natgas, and I was wrong because the warm tropical plumes came flooding in and gave us a warm winter.  This year, I'll predict the same thing, but don't put any money on it.

We're into natgas freeze-up for north east frack gas.  That frack water is what causes the problem in OK.  People start injecting it and instant earthquakes.  If there is an earthquake response, it will come at the thaw.

Earthquakes will give me a chance to talk about neato things, not cold and covid.  :(

Crazy Murder a Covid Symptom

 

Well, they go on and on about the effect on mental illness.  We can assume that all the draconian lockdowns are having an effect.  It will now be a race between covid inflammation and covid murders.  This is sad.

Okay, you mathless people, time to take a breather before you order another lockdown.  They don't work.  Your mask orders don't work.  Nothing you do works.  Covid is up, insanity is up.  This is a time to look at the main hypothesis and let it fail.

Of course, this won't happen because the whole thing is entangled with power politics.  Nobody can go 'back to the drawing board'.  They have to stay the course and kill us all.  

In the US, covid is out of control, but no great increase in shootings, if anybody can tell, and the economy is up.  Instead of a mask and lockdowns, everybody should wear cool wrap-around safety glasses,  or face shields.  Have lots of parties, talk to your neighbours and family.  Be on the alert for standard male depression.

Unfortunately, I predict ridiculous covid numbers, more strict lockdowns, and lots of murder-suicides.  This will pass, as all our Great Stupidities.  Have fun!

ps.  I write this as being pretty good on male depression.  Everybody is drinking more, and male depression is going to go through the roof.  The only hope is social interaction and somebody getting them to a doctor.  Not going to happen very much now.  We'll see.

More Amazon gifts

 Hot on the heels of my 3 bucks, I include more suggestions.

Red light

I use an expensive face mask thing that nobody uses anymore, but I searched for the cheapest red light that has 2 levels.

 

Have this by your computer desk in the morning, and give the eyes a 3 minute blast.

Then switch to a blue light for 15 minutes, off to the side and don't look at it directly.  Nobody knows how this works, I suspect sensors around the eyes, like infrared.

Finally, these are the best.

I've gone through endless pills on this, and who can face another pill in the morning?  These gummies are great and everybody chews them down.  Don't suffer!  

more:

Best thing ever for old men.  The ladies will laugh at you, but you aren't the one retying the shoelaces constantly on a hike.

For your growhouse.  You can get ugly old steel shelves from bankrupt retailers, but the plastic clips are dried out and broken.

And get this for your favourite hydroponics person.  I just started the microgreens.  With the new ice age, we get 6 months of growing under lights.

Cold Clippers Club Canada

 Another long weather report, using physics instead of stories.

You can look this up on my background site, cited at the right, but this is a map of raw atmospheric heat energy.  We need these to sweep over us to be warm.  Cold is merely the absence of heat energy, and that's what we are getting.  

This is the one or two degree temperature anomaly map.  The equatorial belt is down a degree, but still hot.  They like to go on an on about how carbon warming causes this, or that this 'overwhelms' their pet beliefs, but that's the usual garbage.  This slightly colder water is pushing back the tropical plumes, so that they are shooting up in the old 70-80's pattern.  It hits the Yukon, and pulls down an Alberta clipper on us.

In Europe, the plumes are shooting low, missing the UK, and then swooping up to hit the Arctic, affecting the freeze-up.  This gives the warmies something to sing about.