Another sabbatical

 My geophysics people are all saying they are not plotting any more.  I can't blame them.  We'll all have to suffer the cold while being warmed with stories.  I love you all. Bye again.

Ocean currents - Feb 25, 2023

 I mainly write this to be a record, since I don't think they keep any of this.

The Gulf Stream has come back with strength to past Iceland.

However, the Greenland current is picking up, and this cold current can cut off the warm water, if it starts to go full blast.  But right now, all the ocean plumes are following the warm water right to the ice.

The cold Pacific current from the Antarctic is still strong.  There is no sign that this will end soon.

Ontario Nuclear Again

 Yeah, Paaarty!

I can only think about 3 hours a day in the morning.  Then I squash all disturbing thoughts, so I can sleep.  In the old days, I would go into brain storms to solve problems.

Now, we have lots of fun again.  Locating a new large nuclear plant without the Scientific Method and physics.  It was learned a long time ago, that a site with good physics, was politically impossible.  Thus, they went with things that were politically possible, but with no physics.

All the strongmen of large bureaucracies are nasty alcoholics.  That's evolution at work.  Thinkers don't rise.  They love smashing round pegs into square holes.  We had that with the Niagara Tunnel and the Bruce Waste thingie.  Bruce even tried to locate a nuclear plant on Lake Erie, which freezes solid in the winter.  I love all this!

I did a lot of site work a long time ago, but there was a brain wipe when the NDP came to power.  Like now, they think all our power can come from solar cells and windmills.  Not a speck of physics there.  As well, they are going to ignore all the previous work, like they did with the Niagara Tunnel.  This will be fun!

ps.  just dug up this old picture of doing the North Channel

I've written about all the adventures.

Article -- Ontario Earthquakes

 Reference

A light article, written by an AI, or maybe, a human.  It's an article without physics, and blames earthquakes on climate change.  But, it's an article.

The water level change that brings on the earthquakes, is the very slow one of isostatic uplift, from the ancient glaciers.  I think it's a smoker, much like any fault zone in the world, including Turkey.   We just have the usual remote odds, but there are a lot of such zones in the world.

Toronto snow storm

 

This is so pretty, with lots of colours.  That means a bit of a rough time for us.

A milder winter is a longer winter

 That's only because it is super cold elsewhere, and we, in Toronto, are getting mild Pacific air.  

But the Arctic is going back to 60 below because the Atlantic plumes are stopping short.  They were following the unstable end of the Gulf Stream, and now that tail is wagging back south.

The Pacific plumes are in a standard 'pinwheel' which means lots of snow storms for us.  A standard winter has the plumes attacking the Yukon, which brings down very cold air on us, but no snow.  If the Arctic cold air mass is left alone, it stands alone.  

State of the Oceans - Feb 20, 2023

 Summary:  The Gulf Stream is wagging its tail and going away from the north again.  This should mean more cold for the UK.  The feed to the Pacific belt may be slowing down, or it could just mean the S. Hemi. summer.

Currents decline beyond Iceland.

Unknown shift for the Pacific.

I still think everyone will be surprised by the continued Pacific cold phase.

Big doomer event predicted

 So far, they have just predicted doomer events that can never be measured, like 50 years into the future.  Now, they are closing in.  

This is 'coming soon' and does not exist.  There can be no physics effect of a near-vacuum on the the surface weather.  However, everybody will have a party with the doomer forecast, and then forget about it when it doesn't happen.  

It's all made up by this guy, who controls the world.

We are forced to take him seriously.

ps.  big discussion on Mastodon regarding cause and effect.  This stratospheric effect has been associated with weather effects.  But all I ever see are the large energy shifts.  A large temperature shift can affect the stratosphere through mega clear-air convection cells which haven't been measured since the 70's.  For me, cause and effect has energy flowing from the cause.  That's good with the law of entropy.  But, if you don't measure energy, it can go either way.  

When I sail on my lake, I see little ripples that are caused by a big convection vortex, about to try to tip me.  I could also think the ripples are trying to tip me, or that the ripples bring the wind.  It's very fluid in debate.

pps. looks like it has dropped from the news.

Please support geophysics

 The after physics proved the famous ozone reaction did not exist, nasa went on a warpath against all physics.  Everything was just 'declared', like a russian tyrant.  There could be no question of the 'truth'.  We entered the Dark Ages.

One of my last sources of geophysics is about to be closed due to pressure from the influencers.  Please email support@remss.com   Tell them how you love geophysics, and the world temperature charts.  

Eventually, the campaign against physics will fall apart.  The world will just get too cold to make people believe it is getting warmer, even with one hot day somewhere in the world per summer.  Might be another 5 years.  

It's the same with earthquake engineering.  They can live with influencers for decades, until there is an earthquake that blows everything away.  You can never attack groupthink, by definition, it has to fail spectacularly.

West Texas earthquakes get bigger

 

This express train is on the roll.  Each time, the earthquake is bigger and bigger.  At the current rate, they will top M5 by the summer.  This is about a third of the rate of progression of Oklahoma at its peak, but we'll see M6's by this time next year, or sooner.

It is caused by deep injection of fracking water.  

State of the Oceans -- Feb 15, 2023

 

This interesting video shows the Gulf Stream being beaten back at the Battle of Iceland.  

The ocean temps show the loss at Iceland, and show a new big dip along California.  The cold current feeding the Pacific Belt is still very strong.  The fundamental physics error of the influencers is that they 'believe' the ocean currents are driven by the wind, when the energy density is 1000 times greater for the water.  The ocean currents are driven by internal convection and pay no attention to the wind.

This will all come to a head in the next month, when there is no break in the Pacific cold phase.  Of course, they will then ignore their 'prediction' and come up with another story.  That never gets old!

Biblical Doom

 

Absolute sea level is steady.  But lots of places are sinking, due to tectonics and isostatic mechanisms.  However, these places are sinking.  Better to start putting everything on piles.  Good for earthquakes, as well.  Didn't hurt Venice.

Pacific pattern continues

 

The press has fun listing warm spots this winter.  The extremely cold Arctic air is spilling through Siberia, and by Alaska.  This is creating endless Pacific storms.  The cold flow is weakening, so the storms hit NA further north.  Before, they were hitting California.  This gives us our cycles of warm and cold this winter.  I love the warmth for our dog walks.

Phancy Physics Phable

 Physics Phable  - A story of terrible pollution  written by ChatFizz

  Once upon a time, long ago, there was a new world.  It had an atmosphere of nitrogen, co2 and some methane, with lots of water.  It cooled rapidly using convection through the atmosphere (they knew how to do things in those days).

  Soon bacteria popped up all over the place.  They were happy and built huge bacteria cities.  But, they they just ate sulphur and methane, which was very low energy, so they were slooooow.  No internet.

  Then some very bright engineers said “We can do better than this.”  They used quantum mechanics and found a way to zap co2 with sun photons, and split the molecule.  That gave carbon which they combined with water, and ate it.  The waste O2, they just poured into the atmosphere with giant chimneys – Out of Sight, Out of Mind.

  Oh, the horror!  One o2 could fry a happy anaerobic bacterium.  Soon, there were massive protests - Stop the Oxygen! Some correlated the rise of o2 with temperature - ha.

  The big Oxygen companies didn’t care, they kept pouring it out, and enjoyed 10 times the energy.  When it came to their own lives, they used something called ‘evolution’ and put on layers to stop the ox burn.

  The world changed.  Plants sucked in the bacteria and went wild with ox.  The earth was at 20% ox, but many plants on land wanted more.  When they got to 25%, one lightning stroke would burn an entire forest in a poof.  They went back to 20%.  Soon, animals ate the plants, and humans ate the animals.

  The End.

ps. wrote this for Masty.  No response at all.  blah.

Rebuilding Southern Turkey

 

We can safely say that this zone has settled, and has become like New Madrid.  This is an internal earthquake, with regard to plates.  The main experience is with 'plate edge' earthquakes, and this has the wrong physics for interior earthquakes.

The plate-edge people don't acknowledge the amplification of 10 to 100 times.  They are totally absorbed with accelerations which are never amplified.  However, this earthquake has a huge velocity pulse which is probably an all-time record.  

The success of a 'strong man' depends on where he is in his cycle.  He's all brilliant at the beginning, but the brain turns off at 40.  Then he just relies on killing people.  There is no chance of any 'brightness' for this earthquake.  Most likely, they'll just build to standard California codes, based on accelerations.  (based on the Turkey leader).

They could do so much better.  Oddly enough, the new tech giant buildings (now empty) use modern ideas of heavy foundations, and stiff buildings.  If you have the money, you can hire real talent.  I had talked to the engineers designing these buildings, and I was happy.  Everybody else has to go with influencers.

ps.  looks like they are doing their usual thing and arresting builders.

Latest New Zealand Storm

 This is a doozy.  

The storm they had before was just a prong from the main stream.  I hope they are listening to the influencers that the Pacific will warm up in a month.  If you wish hard enough, you can make it happen.

Turkey earthquakes looks to be closed up

 

This is the bulge forming.  An M6 or 7 will close up the stress disturbance, and be stable again for hundreds of years.

ps.  if I wanted to work, I would look at the topography and put magnetic sensors along that zone.  Earthquakes are like lightning, in that they must send channels to smooth the stresses, in order for a big bump.

Arctic ice volume continues its upward trend

 

The weather is chaos right now, but this is a stable natural integration.  

The Toronto Earthquake -- Part 1

 

It is my hypothesis that all areas of the world have exactly the same seismic risk.  That's because most places are very slack if there are no earthquakes in living memory.  As well, seismic hazard and risk are determined mostly by soil conditions, since there is amplification by a factor of 10 to 100 in the peak ground velocity.

Earthquake engineering has detached from the physics, as much as weather, and other traditional occupations.  Everybody wants to have an 'untouchable' gravitas, created by jargon and looking serious on TV.  People fall for that all the time.

And then we have Toronto.  To talk to the hard-drinking bigwigs, they'll tell you they are 'prepared for anything', but if you raise earthquakes, they will say we don't have earthquakes here, not like California.  This is their standard garbage.  The media goes for that, and we are all happy-happy.  

I have no gravitas, and as fair warning I go against the leftwinger dogma and say that we are heading towards a major ice cycle.  There, you can dismiss me, since I find that all our comforting groupthink lacks physics.  But physics only hits back in the long term.  Any earthquake area, like Turkey, usually doesn't have a big earthquake in any one area for hundreds of years, and they build accordingly.

I did an earthquake scenario quite a few years ago, and I'll update it.  We are a factor of 10 below 'earthquake areas' in 'magnitude exposure' but we make up for it by building on very soft soils, willy nilly, using outdated design methods, and no earthquake maintenance.  It will all come to bite us in the long term.

-- to be continued.

ps.  not that interested now to bust groupthink.  I think if the Turkey earthquake gets my expected big rupture, then I might.  Otherwise, I will fade..

Edge effects in fault mechanics

 When you test rock samples in a big machine, you see the fracture patterns.  This was my background in rock mechanics.  Geotechnical engineering and rock mechanics is a dead field now, because everybody and their dog thinks they can do it.  This has led to amazing failures.  The same goes for basic physics.

If you compress a rock sample you'll will get 'triplet' failure.  That's a thrust (compression) failure with wings of strike-slip or shear.  Usually the shear failure starts first.  Rock is 'scale invariant' or 'fractal similar' from the crystal scale, to the tectonic plate scale.  That means you can project small rock failures to large earthquakes -- it's all the same.  As an example you always put a scale on your rock photos because you can't tell the difference between large and small.

The New Madrid earthquake zone is failure in a very large testing machine.  There is the central thrust and two shear wings.  This is now stable for hundreds of years.  The central thrust created two points of high shear stress and this was taken care of by the wings which fade with distance.  The area continues to take in water, and is always active, but it is stable.

New Madrid was in a uniform stress field of high compression.  Turkey is in a complex wrench situation, and we don't know the stress field.  Nevertheless, the edges must crack out.  This is tension (pulling) rather than compression (squeezing).  It has led to an unusual intersection at the top.  Both sections are wrenching each other open, and the 'fade out' starts at the middle.  I fought with my brain to not go into a 'brain storm' over this while I slept, and it's working.  I'm not killing myself for an original thought.

For this triplet to  be complete, we need another monster earthquake at the bottom and parallel to the upper section.  But the existing fractures interfere, and the stress field is not uniform.  I only give it a 20% chance for the next week or two, like New Madrid.  More physics could be done, but we live in a world of dogma, and no Scientific Method.

Earthquakes and the atmosphere are exactly the same physics.  We haven't had 'newsworthy' earthquakes for 30 years now, so I went into atmospheric physics.  

The lack of physics in both fields will lead to big disasters, as the groupthink shakes out.  I'm contemplative right now, and forcing myself to relax.

ps.  we now have to find out how these faults ruptured.  If it initiated at the intersection, and the rupture to the south had a fade-out, then less chance of a new rupture.  If it initiated at the water, then a greater chance.

Turkey earthquakes - intersecting faults

 

This is an amazing system, much like the New Madrid continental earthquakes in the 1800's.  Right now I have no idea if a third earthquake is required to fill it in, like New Madrid.  Both mechanisms are exactly the same, so we have to wait for the gps and strong ground motion.

As for the effect, we expect an amplification of a factor of 10 for the deep basins.  

Just looking at it, I expect another big earthquake to make it complete, or stress-relieved for the next few hundred years.  Two strokes aren't usually enough.  But we can hope there isn't another one.

Beil fiber cheaper prices

 Don't be an idiot like me, and keep the original package.  That was $176 for 1gig, and they would have kept that forever.  They laugh at those speeds now.  I went up to 1.5 at 125, but darn, I overpaid a lot, and I'm old!

Turkey earthquake hits a record PGV

 An accelerometer within the dropped zone of the rift recorded 120 cm/s.  This is an incredible level, and no normal building can take it.

You can see it's a giant pulse, and it is my main contention with standard earthquake engineering, which relies too much on shake tables.  As well, this is on soil, so the key to building here would be deep foundations where you would get a factor of 10 reduction in the PGV.

I don't think there will be any lessons learned here, mainly because of the building standards.  However, it was well recorded.

Largest earthquake in Toronto area -- near Buffalo

 

These earthquakes are natural, cause by water seep from the rising Lake Ontario.  The lake is tilting towards Hamilton due to glacier rebound.  We have tiny quakes, but a real chance of a much larger one.  I've written scenarios of the 1 in 10,000 earthquake. along the Hamilton fault.

Turkey M7.5 earthquake - an expanding rift

 This is a very active tectonic zone, and earthquakes are common.

The aftershock zone will most likely extend for the length of the rift.  We are looking at a couple hundred km of length.  This is a 'clearing earthquake' and is probably the maximum size for the area.  When they get around to measuring, the rift will have widened.

The problem for rescue right now is that we have Siberian air pouring down on the place.  It is mountainous with probably 10 foot snow.

ps. two earthquakes - one side dropping, and then the other.

pps. aftershocks show the size of the fault

Nerdochat

NERDOCHAT  When I win the lottery I’ll put up this instance.  Might be a while, since I don’t buy lottery tickets.

Welcome to Nerdochat  all things nerd all the time.  Discussion groups:

The lifecycle of the nerd

The horror of prom

Turning 40

In the spirit of being ‘clean’, we will accept jeers from the influencers like “The world is getting warmer, nerds!’  Just as in high school, we’ll ignore them and retreat to the Library Club.  Just like that club, we’ll accept nerdo-girls, but we won’t know what to do with them…. or each other.

Just put this on Masty.  But, naturally, no interest.  In reality, nerdochat would resemble my blog, with about 8 people in the world reading it.  :)

State of the Ocean -- Feb 5, 2023 -- Gulf Stream fully back

 Today's news is all about the Gulf Stream, which has come back in the ocean currents.  I just got the new ocean currents chart.

This shows a lot of current going up into the Iceland gap, or whatever you call it.  The Greenland current, which was so strong and killing the GS is gone.

The sea surface anomaly shows the dramatic change in the Greenland current, and how the upper Atlantic is warm.

The consequence is that all the tropical plumes are going up to the dead end.  Before 2016, the GS went across to the UK.  They lived in a fools paradise, taking it all for granted.  All the tropical plumes hit them directly, with lovely warm weather, not horrible rain.  Then it wandered south to Spain and UK got the margins which gave endless rain.  Now they are on the margins the other way, and this might give endless snow, or rain in the summer.  They should have a vote to bring back the GS.

Not so happy news for Australia and New Zealand.

Not a speckle of a sign of a current change.  Cold water continues to shut down the Pacific Heat Engine.

The Pacific is as cold as just above Antarctica.  Maybe you should just listen to the influencers and have happy dreams.

California storms to resume

 At least it all looks good.  The identical wind channels have started.  It's all a matter of solar heat, whether the weather is the same.

Basically, the wind channel from Siberia, over Asia starts the storms, and the wind channel in the Bering Str. pushes them down to California.  That gives the rest of us a milder winter.  Such is the fun of physics.

The air over Northern Canada is extremely cold.  We could have a little bit of 'back and forth' which would give us a lot of snow.

North America cold blob ends

 

The west coast gets more rain, as the cold wind channel has shifted again to the Bering Str.  However, we are happy.

The physics looks good for a repeat of January's weather pattern.  That's lots of rain for California and Vancouver, but a mild winter for Toronto.  

So far, we are sailing right down the physics channel, following the main probability.  I'd like to say that's it for winter for Toronto, but all the Siberian air has moved to northern Canada, so there is a lot of force there.  It's a battle between the Pacific and the North.

ps. light snow in Toronto right now.  The Pacific air is dryer because it has been scraped by the mountains.  

Cold blob to be destroyed in a day

 This morning I couldn't see how the forecast was going to work.  Now, the California storms have crossed the mountains, and are coming very quickly.  It is unbelievable.

As I said, we are into the California storm pattern again.  This gave us a mild January, and we are into this weather again.  Might even be it for the winter.  The Bering Str.  is pouring down a strong wind channel, and we are out of the channels.  Most likely, Europe will get a channel.  

California dreaming

 

About 80% that the storms start up again.  Cold air is shoving down the ocean plumes.  Looks like a big sequence coming in.

Spencer plot way down

 

I'm expecting a free-fall to the 70's.  However, short intense heat waves in the summer will keep the influencers in the clover.