Thursday, June 16, 2022

Dumpster Diving - Bitcoin and World Temperatures

 Philosophy covers all things that aren't covered by the Scientific Method (sm).  Einstein issued the mantra of sm - If it can't be measured, it doesn't exist.  However, phil can take over everything, if the common belief kicks the sm out the door.

Phil has the mantra -- "We hold these truths to be self-evident.", and that is the basis for wonderful debates and wild discussions at parties.  The basic human beliefs are that 'The Universe is Fair', and 'What goes up, continues to go up.'.  There are many more.

All of our human actions are covered by philosophy, which is basically a discussion of 'How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?'.  But phil and group-think create lynch mobs and this is dangerous.  When the great phils crash, like Bitcoin, Toronto housing, and world temperatures, what do we do?

All the great speculative excesses have crashed in the past.  So, when something starts rising, the phils must first state that 'This is different from everything else.'.  That always works, because people want things to be different.  Thus, when temperatures rise, they slap on a straight line, and say it will always rise to an amazing level.  Bitcoin and stocks are the same and it's called 'momentum investing'.

When things crash, all the shill-phils go into hiding.  The average person wonders whether they should hold on (Blackberry stock), or run away from the killer rabbit.  The natural inclination is to think that things will rise again.  There is also the effort to calculate the 'bottom'.  With stocks, the bottom is calculated by how many office chairs they own, but no company actually owns anything any more.  For bitcoin, there is no bottom.  For Toronto housing the bottom is the income from rent, but the speculation left that building a long time ago.

The human reaction to a crash is to ignore it.  The great Japan property crash was ignored for years.  I suspect the banks will ignore the Toronto crash.  

This post is a great tribute to philosophy, I am wallowing in it.  However, reality always comes to hit us, and I have to go out and mow the lawn.  The fun now, will be to see how it all plays out.  

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