Gods of Global Warming - Kerry Emanuel

 Reference

I thought my 'gods' series was over, because they are all in hiding.  My mistake.  They are necessary to pimp up universities and attract rich students.  In the old days, when all this stuff was rising, the gods destroyed anybody doing physics.  Who can stand against these guys?  Look at the great pictures!  They drip with sincerity, and can curdle milk.

That is why nobody will ever do any experiments that could prove this wrong.  Everybody will be freezing, fossil fuel prices will go through the roof, and the Thames will freeze over.  But the gods will keep the myth going forever.

If you apply the Scientific Method to all this, then the carbon hypothesis fails.  But the gods have destroyed the SM, it's all 'legal' debate now.  These people will stare you in the face and say "You are not freezing.'  And we'll believe them.  I believe them, but what's with my heating bill?  

Another summer clipper coming down

 

This will be the hallmark of our summer.  Warm, then cold.  The last few cold blobs have gone over Toronto dry.  There should be big storms at the interface, and the prairies are getting them.  

Every heat wave is global warming

 

From the New Scientist.  That's why all we read about is heat waves.  They have to look very hard for one this year.

Hurray for Lapland.  Those reindeer don't need sweaters this summer.  Japan has the tiniest smudge, but it's big in the news.

Here they make a big deal about how more heat records are broken than cold records.  'Cold waves' never make it into the news.

Even if mile-high ice were to be descending on Toronto, we would have heatwaves in the summer.  If you define them down to one day events, you will always get individual local records broken.  A heatwave by that definition, occurs when you get direct sun and no moderating breeze from big lakes or the ocean. 

State of the Oceans - June 27, 2022

 Ocean current results date the day before.

Something unbelievable is happening in the Pacific, and all we have are tired old explanations on how La Nina won't die.  

I especially enjoy on how I am the only person in the world to see this.  That means I'm crazy, by definition.  All the other 'Gods of Global Warming' are the sane ones.  I've noticed how they all are enjoying their retirement and aren't saying anything.  It's left to the hacks to go on and on about heat waves, as if we haven't had those since the beginning of time.  It's a consequence that if the 'heat dome' was a 100 times more likely due to global warming, then we would have 100 times more frequency of these things.  Do you see that?

I show the upper picture of the Argo floats.  We need more resolution of the Antarctic Southern Ocean.  I am suspecting that it builds up a cold mass for 300 years, and then suddenly lets it all go, like right now.  This intensity of energy flow (negative) has the momentum to go on for at least 20 years, but probably 300 years.  It is the mechanism of the Little Ice Age.

If it would also curl up the coast of Africa and quench the Atlantic belt, then our coldness would be complete.  I expect it, and will keep looking for it.

Fusion Physics - Part 2

 Fission is having a big uranium atom break apart, releasing heat.  This is ten times easier to handle than fusion, which requires high compression and heat to fuse two tritium atoms together.  The problem is the relationship between heat and pressure.  For as long as I have been around, controlled fusion has always been '30 years away', and it still is.  

Right now, all the hype has been to get the confinement and heat right, to have fusion.  Many efforts have shown some success in that.  Does that mean they are getting close?  No.  Even on the atomic scale, we are having an explosion, and useful energy requires much larger explosions involving a lot of atoms.

We can get useful work out of controlled explosions -- think of the standard gasoline engine.  There is an explosion, but within strong steel which handles the flash, and then slowly expands for a turn of the crank.  It's an amazing thing.  However, with fusion, there is no material that can hold it, so the confinement is done with lasers, and electric fields with or without magnets.  

You just can't do this, and I cannot see how it can be done in the future.  It takes all your effort to produce confinement for fusion, but you need a huge margin to handle the explosions.  That means it has to be 'easy' to handle the fusion, because then you have to handle the heat expansion.  It will take a long time of development to get that margin.  

So, if you are pinching a plasma down to a near solid to get fusion, you have to handle ten times more pressure to keep the plasma moving to the next stage where it can exchange heat energy.  That's the definition of 'continuous and controlled'.  The fusion cannot upset the apple cart.  With laser confinement, you have to sweep away all the effects of the previous explosion to set up for next.  No amount of steel can handle this.

It just means that physics conspires against a successful result.  It's just a horrible way to generate electrical power.  When they finally announce single atomic fusion in a plasma, you know they have ten times more effort to be useful.

End.

Fusion Physics - Part 1

 So the big hope for the warmie philosophers is fusion.  Germany doesn't want to get off Russian natural gas right away, because it wants to stop burning fuels, and stop nuclear.  The only hope is fusion.  

So, imagine we have a melon.  That's the standard hydrogen atom, no good for fusion.  Then we use a chopstick and pin on a lemon.  That's a neutron and we have deuterium, which is very rare 'heavy water', that was distilled out of water at a tremendous ratio.  That isn't good for fusion, so we tack on another lemon.  It becomes somewhat unstable and ungainly.  This is what we use for fusion.

Tritium has a half-life of about 12 years.  So, there is no natural tritium lying around.  It all has to be generated by heavy-water nuclear plants, which practically only exist in Canada.  It is ironic for the crazy Germans that their only hope depends on Canadian nuclear power.

Tritium production only produces a few jars per year.  It's all used for emergency signs because it glows.  You can't store it or corner the world's supply because it spoils on you.

Both fission and fusion are used to build big bombs.  It's funny that fission has bad vibes about the bombs, but fusion doesn't.  Building a bomb is easy because you confine the reaction until your confinement lets go.  However, power generation requires a continuous, controllable heat generation, and this was difficult with fission, and will be nearly impossible with fusion.

-to be continued

Winter clipper in the summer

 

We only have the weak heat from the Gulf, and no heat from the Pacific.  The latest Pacific plume has gone up to Alaska, and will come down on us as a clipper.  It's no use saying how unusual this is, since nobody watches this stuff.  

The big Spanish heat wave of a day has moved on, and there's nothing in the news.  

They can go on about Siberia again, but who cares?  The current heat situation is like everybody ignoring the fall of bitcoin, and just showing plots truncated at a few months ago.  CNN did a great truncated world temperature plot a few days ago.  Makes for a great story.

ps.  and look at the Pacific, it just keeps getting colder and colder.  This is a massive event and would have been noticed, if not for the group-think.

Cottage report - June 22, 2022

 Sitting on the deck and I'm so hot, hot hot.  I suppose I should go into the ice water.  Thanks for our 2 day heat event.  Hasn't made the warmie media yet.  

The picture can't upload yet.  I have a lot of trouble catching the LTE.  

ps.  ow!  put my feet in the water for a minute.

Heat bubble surrounded by cold

 

This is a nice picture, illustrating physics.  The big plume of heat is surrounded by cold air.  All the rain action is on the edges, and right now, Toronto is in a zone of hot peace.  Not a speck of rain for us, yet the cottage is drowning in water.  

I'm surprised that the weather people are calling this 'a two day heat event'.  They must have defined that a heat wave is over a week.  However, in the UK they can have several heat waves in a week.

Summer -- Stagnant Air Rules the Roost

 

In today's physics lecture, we will cover how heat energy controls all our weather.  More specifically, it is the heat flow that determines our current weather.

All our weather is caused by heat flow coming from the equator to our northern hemisphere (Australians don't read me).  It is understandable that we'll get a variation of that heat flow in cycles, both long and short term.

The heat energy density (power) comes from water.  The oceans have a density 1000 times greater than air, and the warm, moist plumes are a 1000 times over dry air.  When a major effect is over 10 times greater than a minor effect, it is safe to ignore that minor effect.  That's the 'tail wagging the dog' thing.

Of course, no physics rules apply to Internet Philosophy, which is usually proven to be 'myth' over time.

Right now, we have no significant excess heat energy in the Pacific.  This parrot is dead.  The Atlantic is pretty whacked, as well.  The myth-makers like to say it is a 'three-peat' of La Nina, but this is a totally change in currents, and you can call La Nina as permanent, or dead.  Next year, they will say it's a 4-peat, then a 5-peat.  

When we have no ocean breezes, then it's stagnant air.  In the winter, it's really cold and dense, and in the summer, it's a horrible heat wave.  I spent the weekend at the in-laws cottage, wrapped up in late June, in winter clothes, and facing the horrible northern wind of a summer air glacier.  That was the coldest summer wind I've seen since the 70's.

ps.  sitting on the dock against the air glacier, made me think of fighting the pervasive group-think of climate change.  I went down to one daily reader on the blog, and eventually had to quit sitting on the dock, I froze.

Big heatwave for Toronto

 

The Pacific plumes are spinning, and allowing Gulf heat to rise.  Unfortunately, the cold comes down, as well.  I froze to death on the dock at Huntsville.  I had to borrow the relative's winter clothes.  You can see the big jet moving past Toronto, and now we get that spur of warmth.

This is better than the UK who make a big deal about one-day heatwaves, between a week of cold.  Honestly, they are stretching the semantics when they call one-day warmth a heatwave.  They can sing "We're having heatwave, a tropical heatwave, whoops Martha, get out the sweaters."

A nice swoop of cold air coming down on us

 

This is cute mainly because of the smooth arc front.  It pushes away the mucky warm air.  Once again, I think it will be a bit colder than what they are forecasting because it looks so strong.  Nice hiking weather.

Ps. That was a huge air glacier. 

Dumpster Diving - Bitcoin and World Temperatures

 Philosophy covers all things that aren't covered by the Scientific Method (sm).  Einstein issued the mantra of sm - If it can't be measured, it doesn't exist.  However, phil can take over everything, if the common belief kicks the sm out the door.

Phil has the mantra -- "We hold these truths to be self-evident.", and that is the basis for wonderful debates and wild discussions at parties.  The basic human beliefs are that 'The Universe is Fair', and 'What goes up, continues to go up.'.  There are many more.

All of our human actions are covered by philosophy, which is basically a discussion of 'How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?'.  But phil and group-think create lynch mobs and this is dangerous.  When the great phils crash, like Bitcoin, Toronto housing, and world temperatures, what do we do?

All the great speculative excesses have crashed in the past.  So, when something starts rising, the phils must first state that 'This is different from everything else.'.  That always works, because people want things to be different.  Thus, when temperatures rise, they slap on a straight line, and say it will always rise to an amazing level.  Bitcoin and stocks are the same and it's called 'momentum investing'.

When things crash, all the shill-phils go into hiding.  The average person wonders whether they should hold on (Blackberry stock), or run away from the killer rabbit.  The natural inclination is to think that things will rise again.  There is also the effort to calculate the 'bottom'.  With stocks, the bottom is calculated by how many office chairs they own, but no company actually owns anything any more.  For bitcoin, there is no bottom.  For Toronto housing the bottom is the income from rent, but the speculation left that building a long time ago.

The human reaction to a crash is to ignore it.  The great Japan property crash was ignored for years.  I suspect the banks will ignore the Toronto crash.  

This post is a great tribute to philosophy, I am wallowing in it.  However, reality always comes to hit us, and I have to go out and mow the lawn.  The fun now, will be to see how it all plays out.  

NOAA shows world temperatures going down

 Poor NOAA, when temperatures go down, they have computer problems.  And this will be a tough one for their PR department.

This is their standard plot of the month of May.  It is dropping like bitcoin, but they'll say it's in the upper third.

This is the more relevant plot for physics, but you have to generate these plots yourself.  They never produce a clear plot.  Every little rise has been due to action in the Pacific, however, there is no action, and so, the plot droops.

The Haywood plot shows the temperatures dipping below the top group.  We have a long way to go before the bottom, but I think we are heading there.

But, according to the PR dept, we are golden.

They use the irrelevant May plot since it is still within the top 10.  Once it goes to 11, they use 'top third'.  They are brilliant.

Our summer -- mostly cool with short blasts of heat

 

This is exactly the same as the last couple of years, although everything is growing much better than last year.  June actually has some sunshine.  We have a consistent pattern of no Pacific plumes hitting us, just slashing down and staying low.

This brings up the heat from the Gulf, but those are going to be short because the Atlantic doesn't really have a lot of heat energy.  At full blast, the Pacific pours out 100 times the heat energy, but now it is nothing.

The Gulf plumes are going quite north, giving our north some shirt-sleeve weather.  

The Atlantic plumes are rather limp going over to Europe.  It is generally stagnant giving some African heat to Spain.  The media is all over this.

 

Cottage report - June 14, 2022

 

A beautiful day.  Very warm, and cool at night.  The water is at a record high, because of all the rain.  It went up 6 inches since I was last here.  

I cut down the monster white oak that died due to the ldd moths.  blah.  It's enough firewood for years.  That was my biggest cut ever.

ps.  the deerflies are bad for those who think a cottage is paradise.

pps.  the falcon nest has 3 littles

Arctic ice advance alert

 This is a test of the Arctic Ice Advance system.  Had this been a real alert, you should have started digging your cave.  

Reference

It's funny because this is one of the warmiest of warmie newsletters.  They are always going on about the jet stream.  And they are big fans of the polar vortex fairies.  They also suggest putting coke in your gas tank.  

We also have the Danes who had their balls cut off when the gretas went after them.  They are struggling trying to wrench the ice volume curve back to the middle.

You can see they are changing their assumptions every other week, but it's still hanging about the bottom.  That's one mucky curve.

A real ice advance would have the Arctic ice at full all year round.  We're getting closer.  

The ice advance starts at the pole.  Ice all year activates an ice lock.  This is when it is so cold that the tropical atmospheric plumes can't get into the polar regions.  We see this all the time in the winter over Greenland.

This is the RSS curve for the North Pole region.  You can see we had a real warming around the 1997 El Nino, when the equatorial belt started really pumping out the heat.  You can have a fine philosophical discussion about whether short or long term trends are important.  Don't include physics because there isn't any.  Nevertheless, temperatures are going below the trend line.  I would divide the data into 3 lines, flat, steep, flat.  It's just group-think that states long lines are better, no physics for it.

Of course, the media is always telling us that Antarctica will destroy the world.  They go on how a floating ice shelf will separate and sudden bump up sea levels by 10 feet.  This is impossible according to physics, since a floating ice shelf can do nothing to sea levels.  The Earth's 'absolute' sea level hasn't changed at all, but they are 'averaging' all the local sea levels, uncorrected for land sinking.

We really need a few thousand years for another ice advance because the highlands are still sunken from the last big ice advance.  However, when you see that mile-high ice wall, run!

ps.  a slight error -- when the danes got emasculated, they drove the ice thickness plot to the bottom, not touching the other curves.  However, it constantly tries to go to the top.

World continues its icy plunge

 

I've decided not to wait for nooa to come up with their convoluted world temperature charts.  They have lost all enthusiasm and the results are later and later each month.  I'm expecting that temps will now go into freefall, like Toronto housing prices.

But, we have another one-day wonder heat wave in Spain, and the media is all over blaming the jet stream for this cold.  However, I find this cold to be depressing, and am attempting to take a posting sabbatical for time being.  

I am now relatively certain that we are falling off the edge of the long cycle, and should be crashing towards another Little Ice Age.  If I see a speck of heat energy in the Pacific, I'll be sure to let you know.  The Atlantic is still giving us some heat, but that reserve goes quickly.  

Also, I'll latch onto any sign that there is physics in the world.  Right now, all the media is controlled by Poots, well on his way to world conquest.  At least that will be slow, and no chance of nuclear war. 

Ocean current report - June 8, 2022

 The ocean current video is June 6.

Last time, we saw perfect turbulence marks on the temperature anomaly chart.

Now, it's getting a bit raggy.  It's like it never happened!  That's the fun of altering history.  That used to be such a big crime, but now all the PR departments use it.  Just rewrite things to match the current group-think.  Lots of money to be made.

The Argo floats are spread thinly and we just get a hint of the pattern.  But it means that the current is so strong that it will never stop for the next few years.

The warmies have a new paper that states the Arctic ice and Greenland is melting so much that it will plunge all of us into La Nina cold.  The main problem with this is that the Arctic is building up ice because it is so cold.  I am always amazed at what people will swallow. 

In summary, there is nothing new under the sun.  Nooa has come out with the US temperatures and May is cold.  They expanded from '10th warmest' to 'top one third' and now I am waiting for the next one.

Fine, it's still upper third.  Next month it will be 'middle third'.

RSS world temperatures huddle at the bottom

 

A long time ago, a God of Global Warming screamed at me -- Carbon up, Temperatures up, end of story.  The whole carbon thing was supported by a spurious correlation with carbon dioxide.  Two people in the city walking together for a time (are they lovers?) and then they go their separate ways (darn).  Momentum investing is the same -- buy bitcoin because it's going up.

The warmies never show the charts any more, they are looking for heat waves, and there aren't any.  Very sad.  This might be the summer without any heat waves.  :(

ps.  nooa is really late this month.  I'm waiting for sea levels and the monthly US figures.

Unusual Pacific thermal pattern

 

This is exciting because I've never seen this.  The Argo floats wouldn't have the resolution for the current maps.  It's probably never been seen before because the sat data is so recent.  I think it might be the death throws of the Pacific current, at least the warm part.  

 ps.  this is my most significant discovery yet in public data.  These are classic fluid shear marks as seen on Jupiter.  A rabble-rouser pulpit doomer could go far with this.  As it is, it will go unread.  :(

pps.  ha ha UK

Cottage report - June 3, 2022

 Yeah, first cottage report of the season.  

No ldd catties chewing everything.  All the leaves have bounced back but we lost a big white oak.  

The world is cold.

 

However, there is a warm anomaly with a high of about 10 C in the Arctic that the papers are going ga-ga for.

At the cottage I saw my first dragonfly and the bugs are light.

ps.  I'm frickin freezin up here!

pps. Nice cool weather Sunday.  Warm in the sunlight.

The Pacific heat-drought continues -- snow in June

 This is beyond my prediction of snow in May.  We have snow in June, but my prediction was really for Toronto.  

Our fickle Gulf heat has gone, and we have the default for the world.

That's the cold Arctic air wiping away our warmth.  The Pacific plumes have no pattern.

The latest ocean currents show that 'La Nina' is here to stay.  

No heat in the oceans, and no heat on land.

There are no heat waves in the world right now, so nothing for the media to push.  All the previous heat waves were 'one day wonders'.  I haven't read that our big storm in Southern Ontario was '100 times more likely' because of clange.  They said that for last year's BC heat wave, which means that we should have 100 times more heat waves, but it doesn't happen.

I still have hope for July at the cottage.  Maybe our summer is down to 2 weeks instead of 2 months.  

Arctic ice volume rises out of band

 

It has gone out of the expected band.  You can get all philosophical about charts.  Endless shouting.  But, a hypothesis waits to be tested.  The hypothesis is that the ice volume will rise above the beginning of the chart, thus cementing a new ice cycle.  This is a crappy hypothesis, because you have to wait so long, but I can shorten the time so that I predict it will always be rising.

Any hard-core warmie can dismiss all charts, and stop any funding that disprove their wish-based group-think.  We can only watch while things get colder and colder.  Eventually, some kid will rise and say "The emperor has no clothes.'  and that will catch on.  Of course, lots of kids whapped on the head before that.  :)  I'm talking about the dark ages when you could whap a smart-mouthed kid.

Spencer world temperatures chatter at low

 Spencer has the fuzziest plot, and it is pretty well stagnant.  

We know the world is cold, and I hope it just stays at this level.  I like it warm in the summer.  In Australia the winter has gone to 'the old guys' who remember previous big snows.  That means we are back to the 70's, there, as well.  At one time, I thought the mechanism of cool cycles was that all the northern heat energy shifted south, but it just all goes away.  

We have a convective atmosphere, which means that 'greenhouse gases' are impossible.  noosa just went with that because everybody came off the Venus project.  Greenhouse gases required stratification and it ain't happening here.

I used to do a series of 'Gods of Global Warming', the people who made big money on clange.  You don't hear from them any more.  They are all hiding.  All you see in the media are unknown wannabees.  

Since we don't do atmospheric physics, it seems impossible that all the heat energy leaves us.  During the warm cycle, this lack of physics was the main excuse for carbon dioxide.  There was no other explanation for warming, and now there is no explanation for cooling.  Of course, i have an explanation, but that's in the form of a hypothesis, and it needs millions of dollars for measurements.  Not going to happen when all the money is held by leftie group think, and the rightie-tighties are too stupid.