Friday, October 31, 2008
As usual, the question is always "Where are they getting their money?", since Ontario is sinking its tax pennies into Darlington. But the BM has a hook into pension money, run by little old ladies, and should do well.
ps. Here is the official announcement, at 1.00 pm Friday. The rate they're going, they should get this Env. Ass. done, as well as Bruce C, and the Deep Sucker, before Darlington B.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
A new report out that gives a $200 billion dollar loss for the next Hayward, while the insurance industry gets soaked for $30 billion (money they probably don't have now!).
The little report that you can download looks cute.
Now they have identified the fungus that invades them in their caves. They had trouble at first, because it only lives in cold temperatures. But the question is whether there is something else that is making life easier for this fungus. When a bat is hibernating, what does it have to fight off any type of fungus?
I was noticing in these pictures that there were still good roads, lots of cars, and electricity towers. What housing is going up to replace these? Isn't it possible to come up with a lighter construction, using foam concrete, steel roofs, paper tubes etc. Could the incremental cost be less than a car, tv set? Of course, in the case of a big landslide, there isn't much you can do, but each village could have a 'safe building' to go to when they feel the foreshocks.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
They'll try to put back the toe they chopped out, and then start carving it out from the top. That's a heck of a lot of rock!
I love this concept. With a good roof, there are plans to make permanent housing this way in severe earthquake country. I've thought a lot about what can be done in these very remote regions. Obviously, piling rock and mud has not proven successful! Each mountain valley might only get hit every few decades, but in aggregate, they get hit all the time.
The house is put together by resin-treated paper tubes. Paper can be stuffed in the tubes for more insulation, and you can double-tube. I think it's better than tents.
It remains to be seen whether these things can be permanent for the mountain dwellers. Or some other method needs to be developed.
For years I had an office right beside that wind turbine in Pickering. For the whole summer, it never turned! You could hang clothes on it to dry! Now they want to install a bunch of them on a 'shallow reef' out from the Scarborough Bluffs. Hello? Have you seen all the seismic work we did out there? There is no shallow reef! It's all drifting silt.
Another case of geology being ignored for the greater cause of getting something approved. But, as we've seen with the Niagara Collapsing Tunnel, geology always bites back!
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
The Burgess Shale is in Canada! I didn't know that, I always thought it was in Britain, with all those evolution guys. Anyway, it was preserved because it won the mineralization lottery (well, some shale somewhere had to win!).
For some reason, perhaps to compensate for the horrendous doom of these millions of sea creature, they got pickled with the good stuff, that could hold up to subsequent cooking. Probably silica.
Now I'm working on these neato computer program- YADE. It has a wiki here. As is usual with these things, I have no idea what I am doing, but the program is compiling as I speak. It's something like a finite element program, but can work with discrete elements, such as loose spheres. I probably don't have enough computing power.
With such a program, you can have a stack of bricks, or pile of spheres, and do something to them, such as excavate a tunnel. Then you can watch the whole thing fall down, if you are dumb enough to drill a circular hole in high horizontal stresses! I am particularly interested in the 'Lattice Configuration', which is great for fracture propagation.
The lattice somewhat resembles a standard finite element model, but you can do weird things, like this.
They have modeled a piece of concrete with notches, and want to propagate a fracture.
This is precisely what I want to do with my little 'circular hole' project. As well, the program can model what happens when you cut out the toe of a slope.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
You can see the upper tension crack forming. There are some other pictures in the article. I suppose they will cut it out and then rock bolt the rest.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
It shows the famous Niagara wheel pit. Note that the squeeze has gone on forever, and never stops. The pictures from this were amazing, with all the concrete totally shattered. Nothing can stop rock squeeze once it starts.
On the other hand, we can have a decent tunnel, such as Darlington. Here, the convergence stabilizes.
Now, do you see a resemblance anywhere to some tunnel we know that will eventually cost billions?
Actually, I was thinking, that if this was honestly approached initially, as a difficult tunneling job, it would never have been approved. It was sold as a 'slam dunk', 'low hanging fruit', type of thing. They had to have a TBM to make it sexy. Without these types of people, we would never have had such fun! Sort of like Palin.
As well, we have 3 other difficult jobs that are being sold by the same guys, and the same methods: Bruce C swamp, Deep Waste in Swiss Cheese, and Darlington Reactor on a Postage Stamp. All of these are 'slam dunks'.
The article mentions that these guys were trying all sorts of tricky new things to juice up the effort. Naturally, there was a problem. But they should cheer up, since there is nothing newer or trickier than the new reactor design for Ontario.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Now I will never find out the PGV, which is the most important thing. As well, this pretty well confirms that in-plant accelerometers never work when called upon. No wonder they can't get this plant back up!
If you tunnel a circular hole in high horizontal stresses, the natural inclination of the rock is to try and squoosh your tunnel flat.
This can't be done easily in brittle rock, so the rock at the crown and floor begin to fail, in a progressive manner. There is nothing holding the roof, so the rock falls. But the floor, as well, is turning into rock pudding!
This type of failure can be non-stable, in other words it never settles down. Most tunnel excavations have some rock that fails, but the final cross-section is stable.
You can produce a very stable cross-section in high horizontal stresses, and is done all the time with the big uranium mines up north.
In this case the shape is horizontal-elliptical, and the stresses become even (and below failure!) all around the opening. Leaving it open for 6 months should totally stabilize it, and it would easily last 100 years, after concrete lining. The old Beck tunnels effectively did this by having a strong, flat roof.
It's sad that there really isn't much anyone can do now. For years I've been following stories on the terrible things they were building around the Hayward, such as filling in sag ponds. But nothing could be done. It would be like telling the Americans: "Hey, you can't just keep refinancing your house, and spending the money on Hummers!" Such is life.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Call for Papers
The Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (BSSA) will publish a
special issue on the 12 May 2008 Magnitude 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. This
event demands our attention because of its devastating effects in a heavily
populated region, resulting in one of the largest death tolls related to a
continental earthquake during the last century. This earthquake occurred on
tectonic structures that were not considered very active, and the processes
driving deformation there are still very much in debate. Large continental
thrust events are infrequent, although faults that could potentially cause
such earthquakes are known to exist in other highly populated areas such as
frontal Himalayas or Caucasus. Thus, the data sets produced by this
earthquake will provide unique insights on continental thrust events.
This BSSA special issue will focus on results of investigations into all
seismological, geodetic, other geophysical, geological, and engineering
aspects of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. All authors working in this area
are encouraged to submit research papers for consideration as part of this
special issue. We recommend that authors contact one of the guest editors
who are listed with their primary responsibilities.
* Yann Klinger, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
(firstname.lastname@example.org) will handle papers on geology.
* Chen Ji, University of California at Santa Barbara (email@example.com)
will cover papers on seismology.
* Zheng-Kang Shen, Peking University and University of California at Los
Angeles (firstname.lastname@example.org) will oversee papers on geodesy.
The special issue will be published in September 2010. We will begin
accepting submissions in January 2009; the submission deadline is 31 August
2009. Manuscripts should be prepared as described at
via http://bssa.edmgr.com. Authors should select the category "Wenchuan
Earthquake Special Issue" during the submittal process. Questions may be
addressed to Andrew Michael, Editor-in-Chief, at email@example.com or
Carol Mark, Managing Editor, at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Then I came across this page, with is absolutely wonderful! It tells the current position, and how much rock is falling on their collective heads. Still a heck of a lot! When you use a tunnel boring machine (TBM), you expect precision to the inch. You use a TBM to get a wonderfully smooth concrete liner, at minimum cost.
Click on those pictures below on that page. They are fantastic! Look at the overbreak! Think of how they are going to line that sucker! I can't imagine that drill and blast would be any worse, so the TBM is a total waste of money here. When you line a long water tunnel, you want it as smooth as a baby's butt. This tunnel will not last 100 years, and you can't get back into it, after an earthquake tears it to shit, because you can't drain it!
When the rock is this bad, and the stresses are so high (note the classical shape of the overbreak), I wonder about the long-term stability of the tunnel. They are using steel mesh and shotcrete for the support, so I hope all the strains settle before the final liner. But the tunnel has such a bad cross-section that I'm not too sure.
What would have happened had the listened to the RockMeister Harold? No TBM for one thing, and more attention to the rock stresses. I would have either gone two stages, and put in a flatter, eliptical section.
So let's not look at this as a Total Financial Disaster (which it is), but as a great case study for future students of Rock Mechanics.
At their very best, a dry cask for nuclear fuel is a temporary container that is ready to ship to a final repository. At its worst, it's a cheap steel barrel, stored outside, ready to rust. In the US, every subsistence country nuclear utility has come up with their own fantastic ideas to reduce costs. So, where will we be in 50 years? I don't know.
And speaking of cheap casks, here's a Google puzzle, and you have to guess where it is, since I'm not mentioning their name anymore, in hope of getting big money.
These are the cheapest casks ever! They are supported on these rusty long legs with a hunk of welds missing. A good earthquake will knock them over like bowling pins, but they shouldn't actually roll into the lake. You can always defend them by saying that the steel should hold, maybe. Also, they only hold radioactive metal parts, not used fuel. So they can defend them, blah, blah, to the nth degree, in the sleepy media.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
ps. here are the details. Oh that Eugene!
|Applicant||Total amount approved|
|Power Workers’ Union||$ 13,000|
|Citizens For Renewable Energy||$ 20,000|
|Northwatch Coalition for Environmental Protection||$ 56,000|
|Eugene Bourgeois||$ 20,000|
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Basically, it is saying that the risk will be lower than thought for tall buildings in California. Yet this report only uses PGA (my most hated bug-a-boo of all!!!), and makes no mention of soil conditions. They also don't mention directivity, or velocity pulses.
So, in other words, the Warren Buffet clan doesn't know squat about earthquakes, and isn't that a wonderful thing....
ps. most high-rises have to be founded on rock, or they will tip over. This makes them generally happy in earthquakes, but they can really fling in a velocity pulse. Buildings up to 10 stories can be founded on mud, with a raft foundation, and are something to be avoided.
So now the world is safer and we can locate cities up on the slopes of active volcanoes. The view must be fantastic!
However, during the rupture, the P-wave maintains a steady distance, until the end of the fault, then increases its gap in the free-field. As well, there is a slight kink in the P-wave spread. So most likely, the model fully incorporates the concept of pre-rupture displacement, as well as a critical displacement. So there are some elements of a high speed rupture.
I've looked at it enough. Tell me if you see any directivity.
Of course, that would mean I would have to tone down things:
Bruce Mob: Ha, Ha, just kidding! I meant 'mob' in a good way, such as a crowd of enthusiasts mobbing the Beatles.
AECL: You guys really are the shizzle! I love you all!
Universities: I feel your pain! It's not your fault you can't come up with anything original.
Government: I am sure that toadies and washed-out politicians are all you can get for these panels and boards. Really, who would want the job?
I would appreciate any other suggestions on how I can become The New Harold. And please don't look behind the curtain, at those old posts.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Are they being paid directly from the pocket of The Boss? (yes)
Have they ever rocked the boat, at any time in their lives? (don't know, don't care)
What would happen to them if they issued a contrary opinion? (instant death)
I'm glad they have a geologist bureaucrat, with some experience in geophysics, but this guy isn't in a position to say anything (but deep inside, HE'LL KNOW!)
That right! Just become a Follower of the Fish! You don't have to go into a stuffy room and listen to the Cruise-ster. You just sign up.
But do wild geologists care about cancer, and growing old? Maybe not, since they will still climb up a rock face, and hang on by their toes, while they swing their hammer. And I used to do the most wild things in the field. But for the old guys, red wine is better than beer!
The irony is that the red wine counteracts all the bad effects from the beer! Should we then have red wine chasers, after the beer? A very interesting problem.
They also don't mention that the cost of Freezing in the Dark has also gone up. In fact, it is always amazing that these articles really never say much at all!
Judging by the recent Rotor Dropping Incident, and the French Cheesy Concrete Disaster, I would say that the cost of the next nuclear plant will be astounding. And why is that, you may ask? It's because all these people in charge are Peace-Time Generals. They've had 30 years of not doing anything. All the hardened warriors have retired, and all these guys have risen to the top by being back-stabbing, political weasels. They can't do anything!
As with all wars, these guys have to be eased out after they have horribly screwed things up for a few years. So, we are in for a lot of fun!
But we really need a new nuclear plant, since they operation-cowboys have totally destroyed Pickering A and B, and are working hard on Darlington.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Anyway, they're all waiting for Ontario, to see if they go against all sense and reason, and boost the sale price of AECL. I hope they get a good kickback, since I know they're going to do it! If they don't do it, they make a liar out of OPG, who says they can get 4 reactors on the Darlington postage stamp.
All the canoes and such get hauled up, and the marina puts away the big boat. I've got a new gorgeous steel roof, and it doesn't go PLINKY-PLINKY in the rain! I was once caught under a tin-roof picnic shelter during a long, horrendous rain, and my brain turned to mush with all the noise! These new roofs are designed not to ring.
We've had a glorious Fall, and the colours have been fantastic. Not that many reds, because all the rain in the Summer, but lots of oranges and yellows. During the week, I was in the sauna, and decided to get hot and jump in the lake for one last time. BIG MISTAKE! All the heat didn't make one bit of difference to the feeling that all my skin was peeling off! I didn't do that again!
Friday, October 17, 2008
Poor little Finnish guys. I know they're so smart inventing Linux and all that, but they got hosed on this one. Well, it's back to reindeer-wax candles for them!
We only get to see the results (at 10 cents to the dollar!), at these hearings coming up.
Ok, I didn't understand at all what the rest of the article was trying to say, but I did like the title and the first page. I think pulses are magnificent! A velocity pulse is what I call the 'Fist of God' in a typical mountain valley thrust earthquake. You can also have them with strike-slip faults, but I don't think they are as powerful. I think pulses are greatly ignored when it comes to earthquake engineering. For example, these happy guys only consider the far-field 'rocking' or sinusoidal motions, when designing something as loony as base isolation. What happens when a pulse hits those suckers? Kapow!
A pulse is the only thing that will discombobble a nuclear plant, yet all their stupid 'seismic design' is devoted to sinusoids. Get real, people! Anyway, I like articles on these things -- the more the merrier!
The star article is about earthquake detection, and evaluating 'completeness'. You can always slap together a seismometer array, but how good is it? Usually, it means you can easily detect earthquakes within the array, but the stuff outside becomes more difficult.
Using the methodology in the paper, they can come up with a completeness map for any given day.
Very cute. My own opinion is that this type of 'completeness' is a very small part of the picture. You also need accuracy in location, as well as a good estimate of depth. It's a bit like the big nuclear collider that never works; you have an idea of how much energy you need before you can discover the 'next big thing'. Maybe this new Italian-run (ha, ha!) CERN collider has it, but Hawking thinks it doesn't.
I have the same idea for seismometer arrays, in that you need a certain quality and density to fully bring together fundamental rock mechanics physics, and earthquake source mechanics. Without it, you are whistling in the dark. I don't think the US will ever get there.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
They'll have a great party on Nov. 13! It's one of the biggest earthquake drills on the planet! Why can't we have one? We should all participate and promise not to phone California on that day. In a real earthquake, everyone and their dog will be trying to phone their relatives and friends in California, and the whole phone-thing will blow!
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
We're having a mapping party in Toronto, Sunday October 26th and we hope that you will join us. This will be a chance for lots of mapping fun, plus mixing and mingling with other local mappers and exchanging tips and strategies.
See you there.
Monday, October 13, 2008
This is just a map of Ohio, with their faults. I think they are rather fanciful on the location of the Grenville Front, but, then again, most people are. If they had run some good, deep reflection seismic, they would have picked up the giant Ontario megathrusts that run through their state. Even in this DEM you can see traces of them, but in the US, everything is balkanized into state-only studies, because each of them have their own little state geological surveys. Once you step over the border and involve 2 states, it becomes a Federal matter, and they are only interested in California!
One day, after a monster earthquake, you might get a decent regional study, following the big megathrust faults, and their eventual fate in the US, as they grind up against the Rockies.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
The 2004 giant slip produced a big dimple in the earth. This stress change has to work itself out. Since the crust is non-linear with big faults, there is a 'diffusion' of strain changes. This diffusion can go out much farther than one would think.
The big 'hit' would be thrust earthquakes in a north-south direction, north of the big earthquake. I've outlined this in red.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Now Bell (BCE) has to replace everything, and they couldn't raise a plug nickel nowadays. So they have to collapse into the arms of Telus, and tell the world it's a 'partnership'. At least the investment is good during a recession.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Each monster dinosaur carried 3 metric tons of digesting food! And when they pooped, they could cover an elephant! (maybe).
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Let's recap the CNSC disaster, for which we will all pay one day in fizzled-out reactors, huge expenses, and maybe even a touch of the old radiation. Once upon a time, it was the respected Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB). It was all techies, and we (the utilities) got along well with them. We, the underlings, put the fear of god in our political bosses by saying "The Board is going to get you!". This worked really well in providing, safe, effective nuclear power. I could stay ahead of the AECB by knowing my shit, and ignoring them!
Then the government wanted them to be fancy. AECB sounded too 50-ish! They wanted trendyness, and went for the CNSC, to sound more like the Americans. Once this was acceptable in the government cocktail circuit, the hack-vultures began to circle. One of the sleaziest Liberals ever, put in Keen as president.
She did all the usual hack stuff, firing everybody, making it more socially acceptable, etc. The CNSC lost every one of their brains, and the utilities were no longer afraid of them. No more could we keep the weasels at bay, and the place was swallowed up in total political self-similarity.
Now, Harper built up on this, and did it to nearly every government body, including the Listeria killers. Everybody was replaced with safe toadies! Who cares if people died? Keen dug in for one last kick at the can (just to be miserable, I'm sure), and got replaced.
Now with the Harpo, there is not a speck of brains driving the ship. What will this mean for Science, and safety? So, with heavy heart for a sophisticate who thinks all politicians are the same, I must support the Liberals, who have a chance of injecting intelligence in government again. Or at least they will be faster at realizing this big mistake!
These are the 'pressure release' signals, which come when you get things all bloated up, and suddenly release gas. There are other signals which mix up all together for the Volcanic Tremor Symphony. But there are some cautions that volcanoes aren't just big balloons, ready to burst, but they may, in fact, be somewhat complex.
So, when they make a mistake and some subdivision gets suddenly roasted without warning, they can just say 'Oops!', shrug their shoulders, and say "Who knew?".
I hope they have a lot of fun dreaming up all sorts of marvelous destruction!
For Bruce C:
The Participant Funding Review Committee
Bruce Power New Build Project
Professor, University of Toronto
Paul Scott (Chair)
Retired Regional Director of the Agency's Vancouver office
Recommended Participant Funding Allocations
Bruce Power New Build Project
|Applicant||Total amount approved|
|Saugeen Ojibway Nation||$ 16,500|
|Northwatch Coalition for Environmental Protection||$ 8,000|
|Greenpeace Canada||$ 24,000|
|Citizens for Renewable Energy (CFRE)||$ 1,500|
The Participant Funding Review Committee
Darlington Nuclear New Power Plant Project
Professor, University of Toronto
Paul Scott (Committee Chairperson)
Retired Regional Director of the Agency’s Vancouver office
Recommended Participant Funding Allocations
Darlington Nuclear New Power Plant Project
|Applicant||Total amount approved|
|Power Workers Union||$21,000|
|Lake Ontario Waterkeeper||$20,000|
And the deep hole in the ground:
Recommended Participant Funding Allocations
Deep Geologic Repository for Low and Intermediate Level Radioactive Wastes Project
|Applicant||Total amount approved|
|Northwatch Coalition for Environmental Protection||$ 6,500|
|Citizens for Renewable Energy||$ 1,500|
|Greenpeace Canada||$ 24,000|
|Saugeen Ojibway Nation||$ 13,500|
|Citizens for Alternatives to Chemical Contamination||$ 500|
|Canadian Coalition for Nuclear Responsibility||$ 4,000|
Note how Greenpeece made out like bandits! I like Waterkeeper's web site. The rest of these guys will add colour to the proceedings. But I can't get over the power workers getting money! They are rich and powerful, and this money isn't enough to pay for their weekly pedicures! What do they have to say, other than be all pro-nuclear?
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
But couldn't there be a better name than IDOT? What IDIOT came up with that? It makes me cringe as an earthquake person.
In 2007, there was a big rock mechanics story. The Crandall mine collapsed, killed 6 people, and then killed the rescuers! Naturally, the owners immediately blamed the nasty earthquake gods, did the PM shrug, and said: "Who knew?".
Of course, the high priests of the earthquake gods cried foul, and set out to prove that it was owner greed and incompetent oversight that caused the disaster (much like Canadian disasters!). They analyzed all the seismograms and came up with the fact that the main shock was the cavern collapse, with numerous aftershocks.
Here's a map of all the seismicity in the area. Wow, it's all confined to the coal mining areas! And of course, all this stupidity follows Harold's Power Law for Man-Made Disasters.
Still, this has some fascinating rock mechanics. I wonder it they have to do anything special now (like funding science!), or it's all back to normal.
For earthquakes, these early warning systems are sucking up pork money, directly from the politicians. After all, the concept is extremely sexy: We don't have to do anything else, if we get 5 seconds warning! Tons of money is going into this.
He points out the general uselessness of other early warning systems. For example, Hurricane Katrina had the very best early warning system, days ahead, and timing to the minute. What good was it?
Volcanoes also have good early warning systems, but still a lot of nut-cases were caught by Mt. St. Helens, and he points out that now they want to build subdivisions on known volcanic lahar-freeways for Mt. Rainier, simply because they'll get early warning of a giant steaming mudslide bearing down on them at the speed of an express train!
It just seems to suck up tsunamis from the Kuril Islands, which is an extremely active subduction zone.
It has this tiny marina, which got bashed during the last tsunami, which nobody else noticed.
But the neat thing is that not all of these tsunamis beam right to Crescent City, only the ones at the south of the zone. This makes it somewhat difficult to activate the stupid sirens at the right time.
These mountain valley thrust earthquakes are truly the equivalent of mini atomic bombs. If they show up, the town above is completely powdered. The only thing saving lives is isolation, and low population. In this case, the town was right in the beam of the velocity pulse (Fist of God), running up the thrust fault. As Japan has shown, you can get something like several g of acceleration, and a velocity pulse of metres per second.
If this happens under a city, then the loss of life is staggering.
This is the best time to build a new Darlington. The money wasted by jamming a nuclear plant into that tiny plot of land will prop up the economy. This is what governments are for -- pouring out money during recessions. And everything will be so much cheaper!
Monday, October 6, 2008
Saturday, October 4, 2008
With that, I enter a blue funk about my blog business, since with these guys opening up, I'm not needed anymore. So long, and thanks for all the fish!
Friday, October 3, 2008
My son's old Shuttle had finally given up the ghost. Both units I had seemed to blow up at exactly the same age, and they can't be fixed for less than a new replacement. But the disk was good at 120 GB, and I could use it to back up my main machine with my thousand and one videos! Using dvd as a backup is horrible.
First thing, the drive was one of the first SATA drives with only only a sata power connector. I had used up my 2 sata powers on the Cooler case, and needed a converter. Luckily I found one in my Drawer of Shit. Then I slipped it in, made the connections, so confident to do up the case, and powered on.
All Hell broke loose! Damn. All sorts of bitchin' about format, bad disk, blah, blah. I had in recovery mode and did a 'dmesg', which is the power-on log. Whoops! The new disk had slipped between the other 2 disks in order, which meant my old sdb was now sdc. That really got the old gal confused! So, open the case, look at the motherboard, realize that their labelling was total crap, and mix up the connectors. Boot again, and it comes up with Windows! Ok, now I know where sata1 is. Mix the other two, and it comes up nice, all in the order I want. Decided to leave the case open while running. Did you know that you can get a nasty cut if you clip the main fan??? (ouch!)
Now I followed Linuxplanet instructions. It's easy to format in one partion, and then put in an ext3 filesystem. All worked, and I powered off this time for final assembly....
Dull this morning, so time to pick on the DGR! Today's myth is the age-old 'Liquid Drano is Good' in underground openings.
This is taken from the DGR scanty annual report. I've been fighting this one for 30 years. Basically, the deeper groundwater at Bruce is Liquid Drano (tm), in that it is very saline and alkaline. This has been taken as a 'good thing', since it means the water has been stagnant for a very long time.
A stagnant pond will not remain so if you breach it. So too, the stagnant, poisonous water of Bruce will not stay there if you drive a big sucker tunnel though it! It's all coming out!
Even if you fill the whole shebang with grout (which they never mention), this water acts on the tunnel liner, and rock bolt support, as well as the storage containers. This water is amazing! If you put it on aluminum, it fizzes up like an Alka-selzter. I wouldn't want any of it to drip on my beautiful hair!
This project will go ahead, no matter what. It will be very interesting to watch it!
The other extreme is Darlington or Wesleyville, where there wouldn't be a speck of water.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
I finally found an update on Chaiten, my favourite volcano! As we all know, this has been the Energizer Bunny of Volcanoes, just going on and on. Now it's venting a lot of steam. Now, go back into geologic time and imagine a ton of these volcanoes pissing out water vapour. Add some CO2 to that. Do you think the world climate would change?
The first "Russian bears trap geologists". There never was a follow-up on that article. Did the bears win? Did the Russian Army invade and kill all the bears ... and all the geologists?
The second is "Drop the rifle and pick up the bear spray". Where they say that a gun isn't as good as bear spray.
The third article confirms the second as "Man with big gun poleaxed by Grizzly Bear". He obviously hadn't read the above article!
The first article shows that all bets are off when looking at strong ground motions near the source, the variability is too great. There have recently been some very high ground motions recorded at the impact point of the FIST OF GOD!
The second article shows how piss-poor seismic monitoring is in the US. Completeness of M3.3? In California? God awful! Even at that magnitude the location accuracy is probably kilometres! As I have said, you need M1.0 and a location accuracy of around 1-2 klicks to show off the Harold Mechanism. Worse than that, you're arguing over nothing.
Well, it wasn't a situation of the stalactites (mites) being broken off, but rather new stalactites start to form when the cave system changes it's permeability. This is the number one thing that affects underground openings when hit by an earthquake. It is especially true when there is an open cave system that is clogged up by mineralization (or grout!).
Now what does this have to do with Bruce? Easy, they aren't giving me enough pirate money, so everything has to do with Bruce! :) It's just that open, unstressed, fractured rock systems are extremely susceptible to earthquakes. Sometimes the change is rather violent, with rapid flooding. At the very best, the Bruce DGR will stabilize the underground openings with lots of grout (which they never say anything about!), but this is generally useless when earthquake seismic waves roll in. Let's just say that I wouldn't want to be there! (I never want to be anywhere!).
The US was going to offer loan guarantees for the first 3 plants, but without credit, this would be useless. Meanwhile, back at the ranch (Ontario), this offers us great opportunities. We can just buy a reactor reservation from a failed US bid, and install a 'real' reactor (AP1000), instead of going for the local wannabe. The only trouble is that neither Ontario site has enough room for 4 AP1000's. They are forced to go with AECL, with their high-risk, new engineering, super squished design.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Oh, I get these day dreams all the time. The scene is the courtroom drama of the Bruce deep geology thingie.
Grizzled old, ex-scientist steps up to stand (since all real scientists are staying the hell away): Me Laird, here is a confused and unintelligible map of all the scientific data that the proponent has ignored, for example deep reflection seismic, radar satellite, airborne magnetic, etc. blah, blah, after several minutes of scientific boredom, I conclude they did a half-ass job.
Council for proponent: Me Laaaird, several comments: First, this person is a wacko, because he blogs. Old, distinguished, nearly dead scientists of the type we like in the courtroom, don't do that. Second, we have reviewed these data (just now!), and find that it won't change our conclusion (which we could never do anyway!). Third, why don't we all go out and have a coffee?
So, the conclusion from this is that I won't end up in a courtroom, and that wine is a good consolation (which you can help me with!)
This has always been a classic problem with blasting and other vibration work, such as compacting, and vibration seismic surveys. The owner of a rickety house says the blasting caused cracks. The blasting company is at a loss, since it knows that the house is so far away that the blasting did not cause it. That's why for most blasting, they always do house surveys, before the blast, and they monitor the blast.
We had the same problem when we did a big seismic survey for southern Ontario (that all the environmental assessments are ignoring). At one house, the owner claimed that the little plastic inserts in his thermal windows fell down. These windows are severely handled before they are installed, so this was clearly impossible without all his drywall totally disintegrating! Most likely, he bought cheap windows with plastic that decayed in the sun. Nevertheless, we paid.
This gym now has long vertical cracks and has to be fixed or torn down. Was it built by the mayor's idiot cousin, Sleazy Construction? Or did the earthquake do it? That is why, if you are going to have blasting nearby, or if you have earthquake insurance, you better take a lot of pictures, on an annual basis.
Pension plans are very near and dear to my heart. This story shows that maybe the teachers plan was a bit too aggressive. My pension plan is backed by the tremendous money going into new nuclear plants, and waste pits.