The mechanism of El Nino

 For the recorded history of western exploration of the Pacific region, we have had a consistent cyclical movement of the Pacific heat energy.  Weather people ignore heat energy, and the power of convection.  It is their belief that winds drive the Pacific ocean currents, and no actual Scientific Method necessary.  It's obvious, isn't it?

I can never argue with them, but the physics begs to differ.  All of this is a hypothesis, due to scarce measurements, and the general attitude of scientists who need to beg for money.  As with anything related to the weather, you could easily set up experiments, but that would cause a stupendous crash in the established power structure.

This is a very good plot of the ocean temperatures.  It is rising due to urbanization.  The weather people think it started to rise at the first puff of a steam engine.  Note the big cycles of warm weather.  These were the past El Ninos.  In recent times, we have had 1997, 2016, and the monster 2024.  The heat energy released is related to the area under each pulse, and is confirmed by the effects around the world.

The phoney rise of temperature is confirmed by the tide gauge data.  It shows every past historical cooling and heating events, but stays level.  Once again, I state there can be no greenhouse effect with energetic convection.  That will be on my tombstone.

If you decided to hang up your brain, then you think cycles will stay the same forever.  Yet, cycles are chaotic instability, and fractal theory (and binomial theorem) states that it is unstable over all scales.

An oscillator must have a build-up and a restoring force.  In this case, the current flowing west is the standard condition, caused by convection with the water.  The heat energy builds up north of Guinea, and in front of Indonesia, in that huge space.

I had the fun of watching the 2016 return, and the current totally reversed along the entire length of the belt, up to Ecuador.  This released heat energy like a UK radiator.  The little pulses after 2016 were sections of the Pacific Belt and became smaller and smaller.

The 2024 pulse was huge, and not captured by the weather people because it was totally outside their little Nino zone.  Ha!  I saw the huge current flood down from the top of the storage basin and go straight down by Australia, into the south.  Neat! The weather people have expanded their butterfly net to include almost the whole Pacific, but they still won't catch it.

The recent little heating event did the same, but I didn't catch it.  All the action is over in a day.

The new cycle may have more of the 2024 events.  I don't see any physics against it.  But the main feed is getting colder and colder, so I think not.  Something to look forward to.