You can have a steady pattern for the ocean plumes, and then, poof, it all changes. This is the essences of chaotic motion. However, the hurricanes and typhoons are usually a short-term thing. They are activated in the autumn because of cold air hitting the warmth.
I am relying on the fact that there is very low heat energy in the oceans right now. The cyclones will further drain this, and we should get back to a winter pattern. But who knows?
A wet cyclone is formed by an Arctic air stream hitting a warm air zone. It takes out a lot of heat energy from the ocean, but just spreads it around locally. I am interested in dry cyclones formed on high-speed and coherent ocean current flows. This is what spreads the heat with an El Nino. The mechanics is fascinating. We aren't having any of that in the near future.
ps. the Arctic is totally closed in by ocean heat plumes. I'm saying that this is temporary because of the cyclones. During the big warm spell before 2016, this would be normal and give us mild and short winters. So, enjoy the warmth while you can.
pps. I'm finally gone, off to a land below the equator.
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