My usual source has frozen up, so I went to the Danes. In November, the arctic ice volume powered past the other years, and may be going for a world record.
Basic Physics - Cold is merely the absence of heat. Temperature is a measure of the vibration of a single molecule or greater. It has no bearing on energy. Thus a spark from a sparkler can land on your hand with no pain, but a spark from your wood fireplace can hurt like heck. Heat energy is a function of temperature and thermal mass. Heat energy flows from hot to cold.
In the Arctic, since the 80's, we have had a warm period, and ice volume measured by satellites. There is no early context. Ice volume is a better measure of energies than ice extent. During this last warm cycle, there has been a persistent warm Pacific breeze flowing over the Arctic, driven by the North Pacific current. If we looked at the Arctic temperature map for the past 20 years, we would have seen a warm zone near Alaska.
No more.
The Arctic gives up every speck of heat by convection to the upper atmosphere, and then that radiates out into space. As all the heat leaves, the water molecules lose all vibration and start to freeze. That selectively picks up fresh water, and leaves saline water behind to sink. That saline water then causes a lot of trouble by flowing out of the Arctic and into the Atlantic where it destroys the Gulf Stream. Some people have said that this water is fresh and comes from a melting Greenland. It would just take somebody to throw a sampling jar out, but they never do this.
For the last 20 years, we have had a gentle Pacific breeze melt the ice in a linear manner. The ice volume chart shows all the volume lines parallel and going with the season. It takes a drastic change in the forcing function for the curve to 'cross lanes', and this is what we have now.
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