Cottage Report

Real July weather at the end of July.  Hot and sunny.  Very nice.  Maybe we do get 3 days of summer after all.

Sunday - just as hot and sunny.  Got another fish!  Two seasons - Winter and 3 days in July.  :)

Monday - came back and the 401 was burning.  Avoided all that.  The fish was great for dinner.

Yeah, I got a 'bollocks'

I love commenting in the Guardian.  I pay to subscribe and it's worth every penny.

hasmis 

2h ago

01

This is exactly my argument against climate science, no hard physics. Both are more philosophy than scientific method. So, in both cases who is accountable if global temperatures and Toronto housing prices plunge? Nobody, since people choose which philosopher to believe.

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  olddocrob  hasmis 
  

  2h ago

  45

  Absolute bollocks. The idea that climate is just physics is just arrogance ( if you are a physicist) and ignorance ( if you are not).

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  rumtytum  hasmis 
  

  2h ago 

  67

  I was going to ask:"Are you mad?" but then I realised that the question is unnecessary. You are mad. Climate science is driven by hard physics. But I assume that it isn't the sort of "hard physics" you agree with and therefore is just "philosophy". Decades of readings from all over the world, from ancient ice cores and from space underpin the "hard physics", but if you think the earth was made by god a few thousand years ago the ice cores and the historic readings must be wrong. Fair enough. Put your faith in fairies and leave the hard physics to scientists.

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  hasmis  olddocrob 
  

  2h ago

  23

  Thank you.

This is great!  The copy-over is a bit screwed.  (whoops, just realized the url is a security thing, please ignore it)

On another note, we have a perfect Arctic vortex again.  The Gulf Stream air is avoiding Europe.  Everybody is cold.

With the Guardian I feel I'm in a Potter pub, where 'hard physics' is defined as temperature readings.

Great Amazon tap that fits the Brita tap filter

If you live in Toronto, you know about the lead pipes.  It's not a great problem if you let your water run, but they also put a lot of stabilizer in the water to stop lead pickup.  Also, they must have residual chlorine, since your pipes are the happiest places for ecoli.  Although this is great for rinsing strawberries from Mexico, it tastes awful.  I do have a big water bottle for tea and stuff, but we fill all our reusable carbonation bottles from here.  The water tastes great.

This tap was easy to install once I threw away those horrible little plastic wrench 'assistors'  And it's the only one in all of Ammie-land that easily fits the Brita tap filter with no extra trouble.  And it's such high quality and so cheap, it must be illegal.  :)  All metal-to-metal contacts, so none of that Chinese plastic toilet connector garbage.  **

**Canada was flooded by cheap Chinese toilet connector tubing.  The result has been massive flooding damage.  Check your toilet tubing for a CSA stamp, or replace it.  Obviously, I'm not looking for a stamp on this deal.  :)




ps.  August, 2018, I found it only lasted a year and then failed with a big underneath, that I was lucky to catch.  I had to go with Costco and a brand name.

The Fish Attacked by Vlad the Impaler

There it is.  One little blog about poutine, or Vlad, and I get hit with tons of link spam.  They really do control the Internet.  Sorry guys!  If you really want to take over the world, be my guest.  I think having one supreme mob boss is better than having a bunch of idiot ones, like trumpypants.

But poor Vlad.  Being the el-supremo boss means he can never retire to a nice fishing cabin.  These guys only retire one way -- feet first.

ps.  and Big Don is hiring mob lawyers.  The Kennedy's went after the mob and look what happened to them.  All the pols are doing mob stuff like gerrymandering, so this just makes it more obvious.  However, the mob isn't good for the economy.  Too many brains get killed.

And throughout this, the mob voters say that any crime is good as long as the mob stays in power.

Trump is a true third generation

Okay, I thought that somebody who made billions couldn't be that stupid.  I thought that if he were elected, he'd turn on his brain.  I was wrong.

Reference

There's an old Economist rule that the first generation builds from nothing, the second builds on top of that, and the third squanders it all.  That has kept the world stable for thousands of years.  No family can accumulate all the wealth.

So, these people made all their money operating a Russian coin wash.  That makes sense.  Also, I thought trumpy would regret winning the election, and that's true.

ps.  from now on I'll call poutine, Vlad the Impaler.

Cottage Report

Sat - muggy and hot, perfect cottage weather, not a puff of wind.  The cottage didn't get that 3 inches of rain that Toronto got, so the water has gone down another couple of inches.  You can see a distinct high water mark on the rocks now.  Lots of bugs in the bushese .

OMG!  I finally caught a keeper!  A nice bass, and the dog still got her swim.  The fish were really biting now, and I saw a huge laker breach near me.  Didn't go for my bait.  Only a hundred more outings for the next one.

Sunday - the fish were biting because of a yucky cold front that moved in.  No biting today.  Going home early.

Start buying for Christmas

I get to review stuff, and OMG get this Batman truck for a 6 year old.  My experience is mostly boys, and they like to shoot stuff.  My daughter always liked crafts.

Here's my video.

And here's the link.



I'm not letting my son look at this.  It goes to the grand nephews.

The Summer of 77

(Inspired by just driving home from the cottage through 3 inches of rain)

The summer of 77, I had just graduated as an engineer in UoT Engineering Science.  I had my horrible summer in Calgary when the entire oil industry had collapsed around my head.  Because of this, I had signed up for a Masters in Rock Mechanics.  My Engsci speciality was geophysics, so I was going to slay everybody with my skills.

The good thing about the horrible summer was that I had unemployment insurance, and because of my degree they weren't going to make me take ugly jobs.  I had a free ticket and I was lounging in the back yard all the time.  My neighbour couldn't stand it, and convinced me to take a nice job as a construction inspector on the old air force base.

It rained every day that summer, and one job was to supervise the grass mowing around the air field.  It was a giant swamp and the grass was 3 feet tall.  All the air force types were yelling at me that it was against regulations because of a fire hazard.  That grass wouldn't light with napalm!  Anyway, I had to keep after the contractors who kept losing equipment into the bottomless bog.  Finally, I gave the job to a nasty forces guy who had just come back from something horrible.

This summer is now like that.  We have the full 70's conditions.  Wait until the winter!

Kansas slays its earthquakes.

There was quite a nice series of earthquakes in northern Kansas.  It was progressing like Azle, and going down in a SE direction.  All of a sudden it stopped, dead.  Not a single teeny quake.  Not one question asked by anyone.  But it is sad.  Kansas is now part of the great conspiracy.  It's that suddenly replacing deep water with fresh water frack waste caused the series of earthquakes.  Not injecting that stuff any more, resulted in a sudden stop.

Nobody in Kansas can discover the truth.  Their news media is dead.  I am hoping that when OK finally does its thing, then people will speak.  In OK right now, we are still at the intense rate of 2 m4's a day.  The last one was a shallow thrust with intensity 5.  We need an m6 shallow thrust to give an idea of what these things can do.

Kansas could be a great place to inject frack waste, if only they would pay me money.  :)  But, they tried and failed.

Cottage Report

Nothing going on.  Up here with the dog, been fishing twice with no results.  Water's gone down an inch.  Great weather.

Next day - Wed.  Still very nice weather.  Dog and I have gone fishing.  Only caught a rock bass.  Storms may be coming.

Oklahoma earthquakes now at an intense rate

This chart is better than a groundhog in predicting cold weather.  Actually, they all read me, and know of the Cold Apocalypse, or Copocalypse.  Anyway, Oklahoma just had 2 m4 earthquakes, and it looks like I can call the rate at 2 m4's a day, or an m5 every few days.  This doubles the rate in Spring, and we'll get an m6 every month.

A reminder of the physics.  What they used to inject, deep salt water, has no effect on earthquakes.  It's the corrosive fresh water that causes earthquakes.  When the seismic rate goes up, I look at this chart.  It's a perfect correlation, with physics even!  Much better than spurious correlations.  When the future price of natgas goes up, they start fracking like mad, and they send all the frack waste to Oklahoma.  Whenever the states try to inject it themselves, they get earthquakes, and stop.  Go figure.

Gulf Stream getting smashed by Canada - Britain exits warmth

(stupid G photo videos never work, going with yt)

This little screen grab of the global ocean currents shows something new for me, and I've been looking intensely for a couple of years.  You could see El Nino building up and then destroying all the established ocean currents.  The Gulf Stream sputtered, but now it's full blast.

Problem is that this cold current from us (yeah!) seems to be chopping off the northern branch and forcing everything to go to Spain.  We'll see if this gets worse, but I think it will.  That's the way the physics bounces.

Earthquake failure simulation

You would need strong amplification to get this sort of damage, but the foundations look like they are floating.

Reference

Oklahoma earthquakes back at full blast

A series of earthquakes that may have given out the seismic energy of an m6.  Who knows what's worse, a big thump or a whole bunch of them?  Lucky for everybody, these earthquakes were very deep and with a 'normal' mechanism.  Still, it puts the seismic energy rate on par with the Spring, and we can expect a 'real' m6 soon.  So far, all the m6's have been deep normal.  There is no physics supporting that this should continue.  It's like flipping heads in a row, although each flip is 50/50, you know this run can't last.

I suspect the gas frack waste is now rolling.  The price of natgas is up, they know we're going to have a bitter winter, and OK is where the action is.  :)

ps.  you can see here that the aftershocks describe a fault 3 km long, which is an m6.

Very neat.

The Copocalypse Ruins our July

Geez, we are back to Canada's two seasons - Winter and July, but the Copocalypse is biting into our warm month.

Look at that mess!  With Pacific completely dead, the warm Pacific air can't penetrate through Alaska.  We are now getting our NW air directly from Siberia.  Europe is benefiting from a low Gulf Stream air plume going right over it, so they can believe in warming a bit longer than the rest of us.  Soon the Arctic Vortex will descend on them, as well.

So  now, the polar bears won't have to move to the cities like the Zombie Apocalypse and start eating humans, like the warmie stories tell us.  My relatives just moved up to the far North (Huntsville) so they can enjoy our new climate, without hungry white bears.

Somewhat related, the buyers of natural gas futures have jumped on the coldology bandwagon, and moved up the prices.  This has brought the Oklahoma seismic rate to close to Spring's one m4 a day.  There is now a chance for real blockbuster before the season ends.

ps.  picking raspberries while freezing is new one for me.  :)

The Clueless Swiss Attack Canada

Reference

“A repeat today of the magnitude 5.8 earthquake in the City of Montreal in 1732 would lead to even higher losses, estimated at $45 billion,” from residential buildings alone, the report states.

I call them the Clueless Swiss because they covered New Zealand, and I thought they were thick as a board.  Also, they didn't pay me anything.  :(

Now, they are all super-whooper about little old Canada.  Those monster earthquakes could occur anywhere, like New York and Boston.  And the CS have covered Oklahoma.  Anyway, I thought this was funny.

Coldology - Statement of Belief

To be a coldologist, and to be included in the 96.5%, you must believe the following:

I am a coldologist.  I believe that the global ocean currents are perverse, and totally control our climate.  I believe that we are now entering an era of cold caused by the oceans dumping heat energy.  I believe that I can make a lot of money by pushing that plastics in the ocean are getting them mad at us.

I believe that climatologists are evil, and should be fired from their cushy university posts.  I will do anything in my power to get this done, including lying through my teeth.  We want those cushy jobs!

In ten years, when this cycle is over, we will have made enough money to retire comfortably.

I do so swear!

ps.  for mental health reasons, I'm putting off the campaign until next month's charts come out.  There's a coldology pool on what will drop faster - Toronto real estate, or global temperatures.  And which will cause the most chills.  :)

Get Ready for the Copocalypse

Cold Apocalypse, shortened

Okay, remember those nice hot summers?  Not happening any more.  Remember how you could shovel snow in your shorts?  No more.

Yes people, put away your anxieties about your children's children frying.  Now we are talking about freezing.  The ocean currents have dumped all our heat into Outer Space.  It was nice while it lasted, warmed up the poles a lot, but now we have to pay the piper.

What can you do?  Don't start planting a vineyard in Ottawa.  Plant a lot of tubers.  Buy a snowblower.  Plan on winter tires for 6 months at time.

Invest in companies who harvest waste plastic, because we are going to blame this all on plastic in the oceans.  We can have a chart, plastic goes up, temperature goes down.  We'll set up a church!  and call it science.

ps.  This is the first broccoli I ever had work in the garden, due to the copocalypse.

pps.  Also, we have a 96.5% consensus with coldologists.

Cottage Diary - July 7, 2017

Starting to experience the coming Cold Apocalypse.  Friday night we got a snootful of rain.  Heavy lightning and thunder, which sent the dog into the farthest corner under the bed.  Heavy rain for hours, 4 inches.  Haven't had that for years.  The lake level continues to rise over the highest point.  Burleigh Falls is a torrent.

Went blueberry picking in the morning.  All the hill creeks were flowing, the dogs rolled in all the big puddles filled with very soft moss.

Blueberries are light and mostly still white.  Nothing for the professional pickers.  More rain coming, leaving early.  This will not be a good summer.

ps.  I have coined - copocalypse for the Cold Apocalypse.

Toronto real estate chart

Listings way up, prices down.  We'll see this continue.

Toronto housing in free fall

Normally I wait for the month's sales figures and the big chart.  But they are so slow this month, that I'll make everything up.  That's what I do when the 'powers' don't cough up legitimate stuff.  If, however, the charts show happy news, I'll put in a retraction.

The physics predicted this in November.  Basic Physics is the study of forces acting on mass, I use it all the time when I'm trashing the warmies.  The basic force of housing is the money flowing in.  Too much money and prices zoom, no matter the legitimate demand.

In November that money flow stopped.  First the Trumpy victory crashed the bond market, and the Chinese stopped their money flow.  Total death for Toronto.  But the body kept twitching for months, until desperate sellers came out.

The new charts will show the impact of desperate sellers.  Pricing and volume will be down, but it's not over yet.  The big guys say words like 'normalization', etc.  They've all priced in a 20% drop.  New home buyers will be happy and buy like crazy in the fall.

Ha!  Not going to happen.  The entire Ontario economy has relied on housing and foreign money flowing in.  Everybody works for the banks or some company that builds things.  Does anybody see a problem here?  If not, then don't worry, be happy.

I predict that all the margin speculators will have to dump.  And we have interest rate rises coming, the main effect being that they can't drop interest rates to stop the freefall.  By the Fall, we'll have a fall of 30% and dropping further.  It may stop at 50%  but that is dependent on how much empty spec housing is shaken out of the tree.

I'll tack on the chart when it is out.  It really won't tell us anything new.

Effects of El Nino not dead yet

I was having a discussion with warmies on the Guardian, the last great defender, when they hit me with the 'fact' that El Nino was over, and it was still warm.  That's why you can never win in these debates because they keep pulling fake bunnies out of the hat.

Also there was the problem of 'sizing' El Ninos for comparison.  This is a standard earthquake problem, so I propose that the 'magnitude' is proportional to the area under this graph.

That makes this El Nino a Magnitude 8 and 1997 was an m7 or 6.  The warmies have their "Chart of a Million Corrections", with no error bars.

They are happy because they recently corrected satellite measurements to fall in line with the main curve.  I suggested they should correct for the current El Nino, but they said it was dead.

You can see that Europe is being hit by direct hot air from the Gulf Stream which is super-powerful right now.  The North Pacific current is dead, so Alberta is being hit directly by warm ocean air.  That El Nino temperature blip has to fall, the physics demands it.  But not yet.

The warmie chart is going to fall like Toronto housing prices.  I won't be happy because I'll be freezing.

NOTE:  blah, I should read things more.  That last chart is still satellite.  I can't find the 'official' warmie chart, although I have looked heavily.

Nifty crossbow toys banned in China

Ah, let's lament the great crossbow toothpick shooter.  This was the biggest fad since the fidget spinner, and was all over China.  Until the pampered only-child boys started killing each other.  Seems you could easily substitute a finishing nail.

I read the article on the Guardian and immediately put in an order for one, before Canada could ban them.  Look out red squirrels!  The one I ordered was a friggin compound bow, twice the power of a single bow.  Alas, China banned the things before the order could get out.  Drat, who da thunk it?

Now we need a spinning disk shooter where you can substitute a sharpened quarter.  Look out squirrels!

ps.  I have never actually hit the stupid things, but I've gotten close enough to keep them from digging into my cottage.  One look at my beady eyes and they run.  :)

LInux - full 4.12 is out

I've been following the 4.12 series and installing them.  Now I've just install full 4.12 and it works perfectly.  Can't wait for 4.13, or will they skip that and go on to 5.

Everybody is trying to inject on their own

This is hilarious.  Texas Permian frack oil is $2 a barrel, provided they can dump the freshwater frack waste for nearly free.  And we know that is crack cocaine for earthquakes.  So they keep going somewhere new and start injecting.  Today it's Houston.  The Illinois one is natural, but the same mechanism.  My treatment solution might knock it up to $3, maybe.

ps.  Texas is very sensitive to this now, so there might only be the one quake.

The rainforest north of Peterborough

I had a lovely dry morning, and now the rain is back.  The lake level is now higher than ever, and they can't release through Burleigh Falls which is once again at the max.  Nasty weather coming, I better go inside.