If you can't say anything nice about the weather, then don't say anything at all.
ps fine.
Blob still coming down. Cold air is replacing the Gulf warm air.
No Pacific plumes. Arctic is still as cold as ever.
ps. icy rain hit us on the dog walk. Missed the worst of it.
Yeah, today we will look at the oceans, and find an Easter egg of heat energy. One can only hope.
I do things differently from the weather people who started all this clange stuff. I forecast based on heat energy, and kinetic things, like velocity, momentum, mass. That sort of thing. Fortunately, this leaves me totally separated from the Influencer Science, and I don't know what that is based on. I do my predictions and they do theirs. Thank goodness, nobody keeps track of either, so one is always as right at the other.
The basic problem is the mechanism of how the Earth gathers in heat energy to make us warm. What generally happens on land is that the Sun beams in lots of photons, and they all beam out again. On a clear night in the north, you can see that all the heat of the day is gone in a few hours. Try getting out of your tent at 2 am to pee!
We have historic heat cycles, people only keep track of the warm ones, but there is a cold one that follows, or they wouldn't be cycles. That means heat energy has to be stored, and then released. The mechanism is unknown because nobody will do the physics. Perhaps it is important.
At this point in the cycles, we have dumped all our heat energy and going to a minimum. This could be the Small Ice Cycle, like the 1970's, or a large cycle like the Little Ice Age, which I call a major ice cycle.
We can only look to the oceans, because the land temperature mechanisms are off calibration because of urbanization.
This is the world -- dive dive dive!
This is the North Atlantic, the only other large section of ocean they plot.
This is the Nino band, a tiny bit of the Pacific along the equator. It used to be glorious.
Sad. I also put in the ocean currents. A random heating event always shows a current disturbance and I always miss it. The key to the mechanism is in that.
The videos show the Gulf Stream and the Pacific equatorial belt. The GS is showing that it wants to flee the upper UK area. It regularly visits Spain. If it is in Spain for the winter, then the UK gets full Arctic spills. But, it is on and off.
The summary is that I can see no hope for heat energy because of the huge turnover of the equatorial feed to Antarctic waters. I have no context for this. However, it is a good chance for a Major ice cycle, and we won't be able to tell the difference from a minor one for 20 years. No physics means very high uncertainty.
ps today I pressured up my horribly complex soaker hose system. I used spare parts from everything I had. 50% of the connections leaked. Yeah! tomorrow 50% of the leakers fixed. Yeah!
Yeah, that's a bitchay.
A nice fickle finger of cold fate coming down. For the last one, I left my brocc seeder pan out, and they got zapped . I hope they recover.
The root cause is that our Pacific Spring Pattern has failed. You can also see that the Atlantic warm air is stopping for a while. Combined together, it spells Yuck!
ps so pray for the Random Pacific Heating Event -- Ha! Not happening!
ps the only thing they got is the glacier thing. Glaciers need a perfect mix of snow and cold, and if they disappear, it could be because the snow has stopped and they dry out.
Yeah, we now have a chance that May is the New April. The Pacific plumes are not bringing down a clipper, but are going to spread Pacific air over us.
The Arctic air should get pinched off for good. Not too sure about that middle finger pointed at us, but it is supposed to be cut off.
The Pacific has a little bit of heat to save us. Perhaps next year is worse. We can always pray to the warmie gods that we get a random heating event.
The winds are confusing.
ps US professor goes on tickytok to get some rationality. Does it work?
Seems somewhat ironic.
ps and this is funny.
they just do slavish groupthink for money.
ps and all spending on clange has been a disaster everywhere. It's like the destruction of ancient civilization who bankrupted themselves on religion.
Ahh! They have a totally paper system, but our line had a lady who couldn't see, didn't know the alphabet, and had the cognitive speed of a trump. The other two spots had elderly ladies who were sharp as tacks. No line for them, ours went out the door.
All everybody else did was make up excuses. The supervisor didn't even want to take in the complaint form, we think she tossed it. Oh well, maybe AI will do this in the future.
ps I now think I sound too cruel for Canadians. Let her do her best, the poor thing. She makes the best Christmas cookies.
I just skimmed the article, couldn't stand the AI writing, but this is neat. We won't have humanoids launching weather balloons, but we can have thought experiments with models based on physics first principles (game physics). This is what I've done all my life. The AI's can reinvent everything I have done, except maybe some more AI's will listen.
This is the end of human influencers in AI-land. Unless the AI's become influencers. By the end of year, they will have run the atmospheric physics models, and destroy the concept of 'collapsing polar vortex fairies'. They will predict colder weather, and voila, it actually gets colder. What an amazing thing.
People will eventually go for it, because the AI will do amazing things with the SM-P (scientific method with physics). They will do all the things I have done -- evolution with physics, the origin of life, earthquake engineering, water laser. Who will need dunderhead universities? But omg, where will they send the thick-boarder elites? Perhaps they will call it 4-year Party, like it is now.
I will be out of the job of bashing my head against the brick wall of groupthink. I never got paid for it anyway. I will just think of new things for the University of AI to confirm. My brain worked like this when I was young. Now I restrict myself to 2 hours a day.
ps. my dream of having my brain modelled will come true -- "Ask the Crazy Guy Anything" two bucks a pop.
Nothing new today. Everything is the same. I was looking for some new defence of climate change, but it's just the lefties writing books to make money.
ps on the other hand we have great action on the other side. Never in the history of man have the Polar Vortex Fairies collapsed and died so many times.
Poor things.
ps Kimmel is too busy with trump to make fun of this. I was thinking: Again? Why won't this die?
Today we celebrate our extended winter. Conditions are so terrible up at the lake, that the hydro crew trying to restore power used my dock for loading. For the winter it is always hauled away to a sheltered bay, and this year is was really worth it. Ice tectonics have split the dock in half when I didn't get it moved. Oddly enough, I could get away with that for 50 years, until the warming cycle came in.
I hope the ice is out by the May long weekend.
Back to the reasons for our Winter of Discontent.
Weak, wispy plumes from the Pacific. Nothing like it used to be.
The big plunge of cold air from the clipper has the effect of pushing up a little bit of Gulf air. This will allow me to continue to prep the garden at 9C.
The Arctic is becoming practically tropical from Spring solar heat. Much less black.
ps yeah, more religious monuments in the ocean. Less birds killed.
ps and we have a new role for windmills - oil sprayer.
It is my controversial contention that we have 'ice cycles' with a regular period of 300 years, give or take a factor of two. More speculative is that we are now entering one. These ice cycles just kill off civilizations that depended on the warmth continuing forever, just like current religious inclinations.
We do not have ice advances for every ice cycle because that depends on isostatic uplift (land bouncing up and down), on a 10,000 year cycle. If the land is up, like 5,000 years from now, we get a strong ice cycle, and then an 'ice lock', which is snow all year round on the highlands. This starts the ice advance.
Of course, there are endless infinitely more complex reasons that cannot be measured by physics. You know what I think of those, but they have a lot of influencer support.
It looks like the influencers have decided to reinvent the wheel. I hope they get lots of money for it. Looking things up we have the Roman warm period.
Then we have the medieval warm period which did great things for the Vikings.
But the only cold period that has a name is the Little Ice Age. The other cold periods were dark ages for civilization, and nobody wants to mention those. There may be other smaller cycles that nobody talks about. These are all ocean cycles, that are measurable. I hope somebody does that one day.
ps those guys looking at iceberg rocks could have gone deeper and mapped all the cycles. But to do so gets them in the cross-hairs of religious fanatics. There was another great physics paper that mapped cycles and physics-modelled them from first principles. They concluded that all temperature swings are caused by the oceans, but they had to write in "of course we know that this warming is carbon". That was to save themselves, but I don't think it worked because I've never heard of them again.
ps Mayan civilization also destroyed by religion and cold. They cut down all the forests to make religious white plaster, and were assured they would never need firewood, because it would always be warmer. Then came the cold. Standard explanation is ecological disaster because of no jungle, but I know they froze to death. We almost did the same with natgas.
The Pacific plumes are just going up to form clippers. Not good.
This sets us up for cold in the east, and a tiny trickle of heat coming up the mountains in the west. All the main heat from the Atlantic is flowing away.
There is no sign of this pattern changing. I now realize that the US was saved by a random heating event in the Pacific that shows up in the animations I showed. It stopped the pattern of cold blobs coming down and sucking up all the stored natgas. They dodged a bullet, but in the normal scheme of things they didn't notice it.
The clippers are just scraping the frosting off the cold cake of the Arctic. Not warming it up at all. However, we could always have another random Pacific heating event.
ps and in the 'feeling' news today, AI has officially taken over as the main doomer story over climate.
ps and this is fine prediction agreeing with me we'll have a stagnant summer. However, they must have been reading me to guess 'no drivers'. Why don't they mention ocean breezes? Because that is the thin edge of the wedge towards physics.
We have to admit that the main temperature chart used by the media is seriously bonked. That's because they use radiation from the land which does not stay static. That needs a serious calibration effort every few years, and we won't get that because it's physics.
It's great irony that massive protests of the past said 'all physics was done in 1850', but this chart uses modern 1980 physics.
The tide gauges of the world are fun. They have been operating since Victorian times, but new ones got added all the time. The bases were installed by steam engines. In the whole world, the gauges show rising or sinking seas at that particular shore. That's because an active sea shore is always going up or down. Read Darwin's Voyage of the Beagle when this hit him.
Nasa in its heyday, used its 'Science People' to use the direct numbers with the gauges to redefine 'sea level' and it was rising all over the place, while sinking in others, but we don't mention those. They made a great hoopdedoo for our climate people. All those gauges show a linear trend either sloping up or down.
I found this one tide gauge in all the world that naturally took out the linear trend. Absolute sea level has not changed in the modern era, so this gauge is on some piece of rock that is fixed to the centre of the Earth by a pole. Not really, it just the lottery winner of being static to absolute sea level.
If you are a history buff, you can look at all the historical warm and cold periods. That is the true definition of 'warm or cold', that you actually notice it. A buggered chart cannot override this.
We can see we had a huge drop last month. This chart acts as the anal thermometer of the oceans. Since the total mass of the ocean water is static, a temperature rise expands the water, and this gauge acts as a bulb thermometer for the all the 7 Seas. It has gone up a bit, but is still cold. You can see our recent warm cycle. This is just another thing that keeps me honest.
Those plumes are going straight up, and hitting the Arctic, which squeezes the air like a stress ball. It has to be done.
Crop covers for the garden this year. I have a bag of the stuff that hasn't been used for 30 years.
ps this week the polar vortex fairies aren't so popular in explaining the cold. Probably, need to wait a week so people forget it's always the same explanation.
'nuff said.
ps to me it's all the same -- let's ignore the laws of physics, let's ignore the laws of man.
We must enjoy all this physics while we can. As I always repeat, there are two ways to forecast medium-term weather. One is Influencer Science, and the other is the Scientific Method with Physics. You can choose, I don't bother any more.
The sm way is to calculate and look at the total heat energy in the world, and figure out what it is doing. All significant solar heat energy is gathered by the Pacific Ocean Equatorial Belt (to over 90%). The other stuff is low-level, but not zero, to quote the media about every doomer story.
We have the 'pure' sea surface temperature, and we then have the 'anomaly' which has a base average subtracted. That base average is unknown and seasonally corrected, so I usually go with the 'pure'. But in this case the anomaly plot shows a nice blip in warmth for the Pacific which is ruthlessly wiped out. The Atlantic shows how it is slowly freezing. That Pacific blip, along with some strong S. Hemi. summer heating has put up our tide gauge a bit.
The start of the Pacific equatorial current by Central America is as weird as I've ever seen it. There is no heat being transferred to the West. Our previous cycle (for recorded history) was to move heat to the west, and then have a big return of the piled heat, in an El Nino cycle. That was followed by a little La Nina cycle. All that is gone now. There was an intensely complex 'heat mechanism' that gathered solar heat energy. That is gone and won't come back again for another 300 years (maybe). It will take that long for physics to come back.
There is no heat in the Atlantic, so I expect the Gulf Stream to sink south again. This will give the UK nice Jane Austen weather.
With the total turnover of the Pacific Belt feed, from Antarctica, I am still going with the 300 year cycle of the Little Ice Age. It is at least the 20 year cycle of the 70's. All the ocean temperatures from satellite are correct, all the land temperatures are buggered. You can guess what the Influencers use.
ps I have decided that Warmyism as a religion, is perfectly fine. It gives hope to those who are freezing, and prevents the despair of coldness. Even the windmills can become roadside churches, and solar cells the tables of religious peace. I will never oppose or make fun of it again.
ps
As I predicted long ago, we live in a time when the media goes on about how warm we are, while we freeze. The press goes on about Polar Vortex Fairies, which has the heavy implication that we are in a blip of cold, and will soon go back to baking to death. I'm glad everyone believes them.
Looking at the weather without calculating heat energy, is like running your car without a gas gauge. I remember those days with an old VW bug. When you ran out of gas, you had to go out and flip a lever to activate the reserve tank.
Right now, we actually have a standard Spring pattern with the Pacific plumes. It depends how they progress. We need strong plumes hitting Vancouver and soaking it. Then we get nice warm dry air flowing over the mountains.
However, the current plume isn't doing us any good.
It's pushing down cold air. Yuck.
The Atlantic is out of heat, and Europe must pay the price. Lots of cold.
The US won't have the really big storms, because there is no Gulf heat coming up. All the Atlantic winds are going away south.
Yesterday was so nice, that my body is broken from all the garden work. Got to till everything, and plant the peas. Pouring rain right now. This is a pea year.
ps and with happier news
This is one of my dreams for a new Canada. Won't happen, though.
ps and the China embarrassing climb-down because he wants a new phone. Chine should put on an export tax.
ps added to that gaugeless car is an electronic voice, which activates when your car shudders, and you are stranded on the highway -- "You are out of gas, it was the Polar Vortex Fairies."
Not great news for Spring fans. We continue to suffer the effects of no heat energy anywhere. Even the Atlantic belt has run out of gas. Last year, during the Great Pacific Heating Event we enjoyed endless plumes wafting over us. Not this year.
However, I think I can till the garden and get the peas in. We are overrun by bunny rabbits, so I have to apply engineering to protect the peas. If I succeed, then this will be a great pea and broccoli year. Beans, not so much. Wait until June to plant cucumbers.
ps and here's some climate news to cheer us up.
ps and nooa still had something to say
