Physics Definition - Vortex, Part 1

 A vortex exists in a fluid that can host convection.  We think of it as having energy, and a significant effect on the surroundings.  In the atmosphere they vary from tornadoes, to hurricanes, to very large systems.  

All weather action, by definition, stops at the top of the troposphere.  Above that is essentially vacuum.  Only the weather people could imagine something exists there.  At the tiniest scale, there is a rotation of particles in the stratosphere, associated with the rotation of the Earth.  I would call this the 'Polar Rotation', and has no effect on the weather.  The Physics Says No.

-to be continued

It's Calgary water main time again!

 

It's too late in the day for me to think of something snappy.  Maybe tomorrow.

ps ok, grumpy me has to say something.  During Scene 1, we had concrete pipe busting out.  This is cast concrete with a lot of steel, and it was supposed to last 100 years.  What did they do wrong?  According to them, they did nothing wrong, and learned nothing.  I am proud of their pig-headedness.

Tomorrow, we will weave a fantasy physics story on the role of the tension cables.  Very exciting.

Physics Definition - Alberta Clipper

 In the media, definitions are very loose, and change all the time, according to the user.  One of the most boring thing about physics is that definitions are very strict, and defined in terms of physics.

We must look at the Alberta Clipper.  A lot of media has just shortened this to 'clipper'.

It is formed in a very specific manner, namely there is a burst of Pacific air, coming from a plume, hitting the coast.  Only a very few are strong enough to make it over the mountains.  If there were no other influences, it would just drift over the continent, giving fine, clear, dry air.  This is always our best weather.

In the winter, it may hit cold air descending.  Cold air is very dense and wants to make its way to the equator.  That's because the Earth is spinning, and fatter at the equator.  Water equalizes, so it won't flow, but the air just follows gravity, which has a slight vector to the equator.

As the two air masses collide, the Pacific air is forced down, and both air masses start descending at a 45 degree angle, or in the direction SE.  A clipper is known for rapid weather changes.  You get the cold air, the warm air, and snow at the boundary.  It is generally a horrible mix.

In the middle of recharge

 

We are getting that full clipper.  Somebody along the border is going to have a wild time.  

Europe has the fun of having all the Atlantic plumes being shoved away.  Their main flow has ended at the top, but the leftovers are still cold.

The 'Black Creep' has entered the provinces.  That's always good for the media.  

Lots of places have it colder than normal.

I'm not getting much out of this.  The 'Wheel of Cold Fortune' is still spinning.

ps  UK gets the weather it deserves.

ps big fireworks and heavy snow for Toronto fireworks, at -15C: "Can't see, was that a good burst?  Don't know, can't feel my toes."

Arctic recharge pattern starts up again

 

I was giving up on this, which has been the pattern for the last two years.  In December, we had a Pacific plume penetrate the Arctic and cause all sorts of heck.  Even today, the price of natgas has gone down.  

The flow to Europe has stopped at the source, and we have an Arctic recharge vortex.  This will keep going until the cold sludge tops Greenland, and it turns white (60 below).  At that point, the cold air shoots like cold jelly on a plate.  Most likely to Canada, but could go again to Europe.

I have purpose to my life now, watching this giant tip bucket fill up and dump.  Look out natgas!

The usual time is 4 days, more or less.

ps remember, this is the Arctic Basin recharge vortex.  It has the mechanics of filling up the basin with very cold, dense air.  It is not the Polar Vortex, which can be anything in the media.  We have had a bigger Giant Arctic Vortex, encompassing Greenland, but I think that was rare, and due to the heat incursion.

Texas Permian oil and gas coming to an end

 

I was waiting for this.  It's a scaling problem, just like huge Artie data centres.  It can only go so far.

I had fun watching the Oklahoma earthquakes.  They got to the point that any injection immediately caused earthquakes.  Their mechanism was working towards a New Madrid-style monster earthquake.

Now Texas is in the same dilemma.  Every barrel of wastewater causes an earthquake.  The old ladies with their knick-knacks being shattered can't stand it.  A mechanism is forming so that the earthquakes are getting bigger and bigger.  I was waiting for it, but it looks like they are stopping, just like Oklahoma.  Darn.

This winter, they will run out of stored natgas, or next, who knows?  It's one of those huge things that might shatter the clange groupthink.  

 

Earthquake anxiety to make millions

 

As we all freeze to death, the climate change anxiety is not making any money.  So, it's on to other things.  There is not a speck of physics in all of this, everything is the extrapolation of observations.  These tend to go down the rabbit hole.

The Cascadia fault zone is the messiest in all the Pacific.  That means it is has the lowest probability of going off as an M9.  The most likely scenario is my 'mega mega tsunami' in the Alaska-Russia zone.  The zones there are clean as a whistle, and ready to pop any time.  

We only have some evidence of a giant tsunami on the west coast, and that is inferred to be a Cascadia M9, but is most likely the mm-tsunami.  I think you could make as much money pushing this, but it requires a bit of physics, and that isn't going to happen.  Can you imagine our world if we followed the Scientific Method?  Wow.

Pure clipper coming down on us

 

No major Arctic flows have allowed Pacific air to come over the mountains.  This is being dragged down by the cold air, and is forming a classic clipper.  These have been rare because of little Pacific action, but maybe something is changing.  This brings us lots of snow.

The extreme cold keeps coming down.

No Arctic recharge, even though Greenland isn't black.  There is a continuous flow to Europe.

ps.  the California Kids' plane was frozen up this morning.

A fine chaotic mess you've got us into

 The Arctic is a big mess.  

The cold creeps down, and we have a big pulse of Pacific air crossing the mountains.  Greenland is warm.

All the air is going to Europe.  We are just getting a slight split-feed.  The Pacific air means good snow for the prairies.

ps  look at that gift for Toronto!

ps.  Chaos always means snow.

Mixed weather, as Arctic empties out

 

Can't figure this out.  Looks like the Arctic has gone into free-flow, which happened last year.  That means there is no 'recharge', but an alternate flow to Europe and NA.  

There is a lobate front, but we can't tell much about it.

NA has a light flow that is squeezing some horrible weather to Toronto.  All the spill action is on Europe.  They have to wait for their weather people to say "It's cold because it's cold".  

ps ha, ha.  The UK is calling this a freak.  Welcome to the new cold world.

ps the winds around us are very chaotic, with actual 3d wind braids.  A big mess.

Europe finally gets the cold

 Full spill down on Europe, but not through the Greenland Gap.  

Not straight down, anyway.  You can see a beautiful A6 spill with a lobate front.  The whole chaotic pattern got mixed up with that heat incursion, and this is the result.  

Greenland is white and Canada is black.  I really don't know how fast this will move into trumpyland.

The Toronto forecast shows a day of warmth, so everything is slow.  I suspect we'll get some good headlines from Europe.

ps OMG, clearing the snow this morning, even with the carbon-spewing machine.  I figure I would use more carbon in the hospital.  The snow has glued!  I broke a shovel trying to smash the plow-ridge.  

ps our pure-foam king mattress was way too old and had developed deep sags.  We, the boiling frogs, never noticed, but the kids did this holiday.  Although it weighed a ton, it was easy to chop up with a knife.  Put it out for the mattress pickup.

Snow in Toronto

 Mixed weather.  Greenland is full white, but no major flows coming down.

The Arctic is still in recharge.  Europe is getting cold in a roundabout way.  The next few days should show something exciting.

ps man, that is a howling ice-pellet storm.  The dog took one look at it and ran back inside.

ps ice pellets still coming down.  natgas going up.

Tracking the monster storm coming down on us

 

The Arctic Spill Cold Orcas left the far north, and are descending on Toronto.  You can see they found another hot blob, and are encircling it.

You can't see the storm here, but you can track its speed approaching us.

It's not on the radar yet, but the regular forecast has it.

ps note that the California storms are caused by cold.  However, warmies claim all floods.  I like how they use snowplows to move water.

ps now, this is why the weather people are so screwed up.

This is the radar, which is all they see.  It's a storm coming from the NW.

This is what it really is.  A huge vortex of cold air encircling the blob of warm air.  The snow forms at the edges.

Merry White-ish Christmas!

 The heat blob in the Arctic has been consumed, and all heck is coming down on us.

These two maps aren't showing much, but Greenland should soon be totally white.

The cold loop is slowly dropping.  We are getting mixed weather because everything is organizing for a big Arctic spill on us.  It's amazing what a bit of heat in the Arctic did, but I think the pattern of spills is starting up again.

ps I got a subscription to Storyworth, which is a new thing that helps you write your memoir.

Greenland now signals everything back to normal

A week ago we had a huge slug of warm Pacific air wander lost into the Arctic.  This was a Great White Shark coming into Orca Land.  Our wonderful cold air was diverted to the job of eating that warm air.  The warm shark liver has been getting smaller and smaller, and has left Greenland.

You can start to see an arc forming.

Greenland is full black with a white spot.

That low-pressure circle is now just a pimple.  Our fine Arctic Dogs of Cold will soon be off their chain.

The Toronto forecast for Christmas Day is getting colder and colder.

ps.  this is that slow black coming down.

ps natgas is starting a zoom, which I think will stay a while.

Zuck joins the Musk nuts list

 

Brilliance is caused by cross-connections in the brain.  It allows people to see things in a different way, and put things together that nobody saw before.  Unfortunately, those cross-connections rot out, starting at age 40.  Turns out that the common anti-depressants like paxil and such do not block serotonin in the brain, but are vital nutrients for the cross-connections.  So is microdosing cannabis oil.

This was determined by the Scientific Method challenging the common groupthink.  Unfortunately, the rotting brain causes anxiety and depression.  Alcohol fixes the anxiety, but increases the depression.  Billionaires go on to more exotic drugs like ketamine.  Or they just don't do anything.

If you don't do anything, you go to suicide, like the Dead Poets Society.  Those guys always blew their brains out.  However, these days the fashion for males is murder-suicide.  For the billionaires, the main point is that they lose their edge, and should exit the stage, enjoying wine, women and song.  We have endless examples of people hanging on too long.

If you were something like a brilliant programmer, operating at ten times the effectiveness of the normals then watch out for this.  See a doctor after age 40.  Go into management.  Retire early, like I did, and write a blog that nobody reads.  Just don't keep on going the way you were.

Arctic Vortex starts to break up

 

We still have some of the tight circle of warm shark liver, but the back is all leaking out.  Cold Orcas are messy eaters.  You can see some cold leakage along the mountains.

The main breakup is in the Arctic basin.  The circle of cold is broken, but it is still a perfect circle along the bottom.  Looks like a meteorite impact!  Note the weird waves in the basin.  All fascinating to physics.  I'd love to know what's going on, but some wonders must remain hidden.  The bottom curve of wind has lost its feed, so we expect to see dramatic changes during the day.

ps snow at the house, soon to be all melted

Giant Arctic Vortex Continues

 We've had this before.  It will break up.  Meanwhile, the Arctic spill that would normally be hitting us, is stuck in the vortex.

So, we will get a soggy Christmas.

The centre of the vortex is warm.  A fine chicken and egg question.  Is the warmth formed by the vortex, or was it an intrusion of warmth from the Atlantic plumes that caused the vortex?  Donno.

Same with the low pressure.  It's all connected - wow!

I switched to Wayland, and it's tough to get a screen recorder to work.

ps the slug of heat came from the Pacific.  This is how things used to work.

ps Naturally, this is warming forever.

The cold has retreated, and the jet stream is now flat - yada, yada.  

ps my fantasy is much better:  The giant Liver of Warmth is being attacked by the cold vortex orcas.  They should be done in a few days.

ps at 3:30 pm it is starting to break up as the Cold Orcas eat up all the warm shark liver.  Can't wait to see tomorrow.  I expect a full spill.

State of the Oceans - Better Watch Out!

 Air have anything to do with the world's heat energy?  The physics says no.

This is the main bone of contention between 'The Physics' and the weather fantasy people.  They think the air drives the ocean currents, and air controls everything.  Impossible with physics.

Water holds 4000 times the heat than the equivalent volume of air.  I wish somebody would actually calculate that value.  The oceans control our heat balance, and have been doing that since the beginning of life.  All of this is a hypothesis which can easily be tested, but never will. 

So, we use ocean temperatures.  Without any water, the air is like a desert, a huge flip during a full day.  Water is much more stable.  The world temperature, directly related to heat energy, is down.

The North Atlantic is a huge area, and it is down.  The very top, over the UK, is warm, due to an active Gulf Stream.  That controls the European Gate for Arctic spills.  

This is the Gulf of Maine which is the main indicator of North American heat energy.  Down

The gulfmex controls our snow falling on Toronto.  It is way up, and keeps sending up warm, moist air, which keeps getting squeezed by Arctic spills, and spilling up the GS to Europe.  

Finally, we have most important thermometer of the world, the Nino zone.  When it is up, the world is warm, due to a horribly complex mechanism.

The equatorial belts are cold.

The GS is very active, but the Pacific Belt is going to its stumpy form.  The only thing interesting here is when you have a heating event.  Then, for a day or two, you have this most amazing laminar flow, without a speck of turbulence, as all the heat gathers and then goes into the atmosphere.  Oh, to have one of those again!

Spacex now plans to drive to Mars

 

It is my contention that the ketaminer's insistence on using stainless steel for the mars ship made it too heavy to launch.  "The physics says no".  That's because the single rocket exceeds the bearing strength of any material.  They've gone to painting it black now, so we can't see how much carbon wrap they are slipping in.  

However, these are like 5% changes, when they are out by a factor of two or more.  The physics chickens come home to roost when they have to fully load it.  The carbon inserts are making it too flexible for the heat shields.  You can't muck with these things.

Of course I could be wrong, but when people are hiding things, I just go for the worst.  That method has a high success rate.