Sunday, May 1, 2016

New Madrid Fault Zone Activated by Oklahoma

Most likely.  I must be getting old adding qualifications.  I usually call it 'absolute' if it's over 80% correct, and I believe in this.

Earthquake season has started with the arrival of gas frack waste to OK.  If you do a discrete element analysis you will find that disturbance extends several diameters from the main source.  New Madrid is definitely within this zone.  But NM is totally dead for another big one.  It is now living in a 1000 year stress shadow.  However, small quakes act as the best strain gauge.

So, the hypothesis is that OK will continue with about 3 3's a day and New Madrid will be above the off-season rate.  Friday had 6 3's, and Sat, Sun had 1 each (so far).  We should have a 4 once a week, a 5 every couple of months, and a 6 by the end of the season.  I love being wrong with a hypothesis, since they are always grounded in good physics, but the uncertainties are huge (both ways).

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