Well, tomorrow may be breakthrough day. Actually, it just breaks into the smaller diameter grouted tunnel, which acts somewhat as a pilot hole. After that, the TBM reams out a few hundred meters along the hole.
I have nothing to say from my twisted mind. It's a wonderful thing that nobody was killed, and willful ignorance will keep us away from true costs and incomes. :)
Monday, February 28, 2011
Arkansas Earthquake Patent Dispute
Dear Arkansas, Yesterday you got an M4.7, and you can be expecting the twin brother soon. As you must be aware, I have been pushing this recipe for earthquakes for a long time. I have owned the 'stress corrosion, thrust-wing fault mechanism' for as long as I can remember, which is a good few days now.
This is as good a patent as most software trolls, so I demand 10% of all your 'Earthquake Tourism' revenues! Although I appreciate that you have proven me totally right, over all those other clue-losers, this does not bring in the bacon. Since you have very mucky soils, and are well on your way to copying Christchurch, please do not house the tourists in brick houses, or soft-story high-rises. I recommend tents.
Keep on with that injection, and I look forward to our successful negotiations. If not ...... SEE YOU IN EAST TEXAS!!
This is as good a patent as most software trolls, so I demand 10% of all your 'Earthquake Tourism' revenues! Although I appreciate that you have proven me totally right, over all those other clue-losers, this does not bring in the bacon. Since you have very mucky soils, and are well on your way to copying Christchurch, please do not house the tourists in brick houses, or soft-story high-rises. I recommend tents.
Keep on with that injection, and I look forward to our successful negotiations. If not ...... SEE YOU IN EAST TEXAS!!
Arkansas Hits 4.7
And you thought I was fooling with the 'evil plot' thing! I said it was ready for an M5 and that's pretty close.
Can we get over an M5? Maybe.
Can we get over an M5? Maybe.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Arkansas Earthquake Update
Reference
Wow, the original 'checkmark' is filling in an a new tail is growing inline with the old one. That means there is a prominent weakness parallel to the main graben. These things always have multiple walls.
Probably means the thrust portion could not grow much past the injection point, which is a good thing. The lower tail is penetrating the footwall, and I can't see it going that far. The strike-slip earthquakes are normally split at the thrust fault so I can't see it ripping all the way with an M6. However, we are well set now for an M5. We really need fault plane solutions here!
Like I said facetiously earlier, another injection point along the thrust line could really give us something!! :)
Wow, the original 'checkmark' is filling in an a new tail is growing inline with the old one. That means there is a prominent weakness parallel to the main graben. These things always have multiple walls.
Probably means the thrust portion could not grow much past the injection point, which is a good thing. The lower tail is penetrating the footwall, and I can't see it going that far. The strike-slip earthquakes are normally split at the thrust fault so I can't see it ripping all the way with an M6. However, we are well set now for an M5. We really need fault plane solutions here!
Like I said facetiously earlier, another injection point along the thrust line could really give us something!! :)
Memphis Toughens Up Seismic Codes
Article
The former codes focused on allowing a building to resist quake forces long enough for people to escape it before it collapsed, Medlock said. "Now, it's not only getting them out, but having them back at work (in the building) the next day, if possible."
I like their dream. Buildings should have a set ruggedness, where they remain serviceable. I would put that at a PGV of 50 cm/s. They should have a safe exit to 100 cm/s. These levels are set at the traditional performance of rugged construction. Memphis has soils as bad as Christchurch, so the same sort of scenario is expected.
The former codes focused on allowing a building to resist quake forces long enough for people to escape it before it collapsed, Medlock said. "Now, it's not only getting them out, but having them back at work (in the building) the next day, if possible."
I like their dream. Buildings should have a set ruggedness, where they remain serviceable. I would put that at a PGV of 50 cm/s. They should have a safe exit to 100 cm/s. These levels are set at the traditional performance of rugged construction. Memphis has soils as bad as Christchurch, so the same sort of scenario is expected.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Earthquake Clearinghouse
Site
Great site for strong ground motion reports. I won't trust anything from this last earthquake because of the soft soils, but the Chile report is interesting.
Santiago gives complex signals, so I suspect there is a strong basin effect.
When you integrate you get displacement, which I would use as an input for my dynamic model.
This is still rather messy. Cleaner signals are obtained closer to the source.
These were at a PGV of about 50 cm/s
I like this one, it is very polarized and clean.
I am now cutting myself off from NZ, since it is very sad, and there is nothing to be learned here.
Great site for strong ground motion reports. I won't trust anything from this last earthquake because of the soft soils, but the Chile report is interesting.
Santiago gives complex signals, so I suspect there is a strong basin effect.
When you integrate you get displacement, which I would use as an input for my dynamic model.
These were at a PGV of about 50 cm/s
I am now cutting myself off from NZ, since it is very sad, and there is nothing to be learned here.
New Zealand Earthquake - Millions Depend on Aftershock Definition
Article
Should the two major re-insurers in Australia, Swiss Re and Munich Re, make a final decision that Tuesday's earthquake was a separate event from the earthquake last September, then there would be major financial implications for two of Australia's largest primary insurers, IAG and Suncorp.
Reinsurance arrangements mean that IAG's exposure to the Christchurch earthquake is capped at $40 million, while that of Suncorp is capped at $45m.
But these amounts are to be paid to reinsurers in the case of specific events, and if it is two events rather than one, then each company would have to pay double the amount.
So, the Clueless Swiss will have to decide what is an aftershock. If they decide it's 2 events, they pay less. Oh, what will they decide?
The NZ team is rooting for one event.
I sure hope nobody drags me into this. :)
Should the two major re-insurers in Australia, Swiss Re and Munich Re, make a final decision that Tuesday's earthquake was a separate event from the earthquake last September, then there would be major financial implications for two of Australia's largest primary insurers, IAG and Suncorp.
Reinsurance arrangements mean that IAG's exposure to the Christchurch earthquake is capped at $40 million, while that of Suncorp is capped at $45m.
But these amounts are to be paid to reinsurers in the case of specific events, and if it is two events rather than one, then each company would have to pay double the amount.
So, the Clueless Swiss will have to decide what is an aftershock. If they decide it's 2 events, they pay less. Oh, what will they decide?
The NZ team is rooting for one event.
I sure hope nobody drags me into this. :)
New Zealand Earthquake - The Pacific Rim is Not a Craton
Article
"One of the myths we hold in this country is that there's a single fault, but in reality there's a swathe about 200 kilometers wide where there are lots of faults that are potentially active," he said.
"We know there's an active fault running just off the coast there, and Dunedin is a city of late 19th-century masonry buildings that are very dangerous," he said. "No one in New Zealand should neglect the lessons of these earthquakes. They're the biggest wake-up call we've had."
I had hoped that New Zealand would actually be the stable place that the Clueless Swiss seem to think it is, and it wouldn't come up again. I get nothing but grief when I report on it, since I believe that the people have been poorly served by those who should know better. I really hope it is all over, and not as I suspect.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
New Zealand Earthquake - They Call it an Aftershock
Article
Seismologists at GNS Science regard this earthquake, large though it is, as an aftershock relating to the magnitude 7.1 Darfield Earthquake that struck Canterbury on 4 September 4, 2010. The technical reason for this is that the epicentre is adjacent to the existing aftershock zone.
It has ruptured over a length of about 17km on a near vertical plane slightly inclined to the south and between 3 and 12km in depth. It is more or less parallel to the E-W trending Greendale Fault that ruptured in the Darfield Earthquake. It may be thought of as an eastern extension but it is clearly dislocated from the trend of the Greendale fault and stepped to the south.
No, this is not an aftershock. This is a new earthquake marching down the fault. But who am I? They are also tossing the old canard that this is a 'safety valve' releasing steam. Ha! As well they claim this whole area hasn't had an earthquake for 16,000 years. blah.
Seismologists at GNS Science regard this earthquake, large though it is, as an aftershock relating to the magnitude 7.1 Darfield Earthquake that struck Canterbury on 4 September 4, 2010. The technical reason for this is that the epicentre is adjacent to the existing aftershock zone.
It has ruptured over a length of about 17km on a near vertical plane slightly inclined to the south and between 3 and 12km in depth. It is more or less parallel to the E-W trending Greendale Fault that ruptured in the Darfield Earthquake. It may be thought of as an eastern extension but it is clearly dislocated from the trend of the Greendale fault and stepped to the south.
No, this is not an aftershock. This is a new earthquake marching down the fault. But who am I? They are also tossing the old canard that this is a 'safety valve' releasing steam. Ha! As well they claim this whole area hasn't had an earthquake for 16,000 years. blah.
New Zealand Earthquake - Modern Buildings Take the Hit
Article
The hotel on the bottom is tottering like many a tree I've dealt with at the cottage. When it starts making noises and starts to tilt - RUN LIKE HELL!
This is exactly what happened to modern buildings in Chile, and I wrote up the articles on that. There is a major flaw in the physics of earthquake design, and these buildings on parking garages flop over like my dog on a hot day. I am warming up my analysis ability, and may soon have some results (keeps the brain plaques away, and gives me an excuse to buy an AMD x6!!)
I sure wish they had an accelerometer in the basement!
Volcano Wagging
As a rock mechanics person, I'm always insulted when the volcanologists come up with a dynamic model that doesn't include the surrounding rock. It always begins and ends with the magma. One day we'll get to both magma and rock. :)
Leamington Earthquake
Canada does an absolutely rotten job in presenting earthquakes. This is not on the US site.
Leamington in the far corner, doesn't have much activity, but it is on the Grenville Front, which we just barely saw in the deep seismic profiles. This is, of course, the same structure underneath the Bruce Nuclear Waste thingie. It's almost outside the range of SOSN, so we'll probably not know the depth, but I suspect it is a bit deeper than most.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
New Zealand Earthquake - Ready for another one?
They are lining up M6's along a fault. We might expect another one down at the end, since the trend is so powerful. Unfortunately, M6's don't create a stress shadow, where we would say it's over and done with. If these earthquakes line up on this straight fault (thrust?) for 300km, then we can expect an M8. I don't mean to be super gloomy, but this is fairly standard in that part of the world.
New Zealand Earthquake Animation
Link
This gives you a good idea of the aftershocks of the new earthquake segment. So this was not an aftershock of the M7.1, but was a clean rupture down the fault a way. I always thought the big earthquake was in fact made of some segments of this size, but they ripped in a fast sequence. That would account for the relatively low PGV for that earthquake.
It will be interesting to see the PGV of this one. There was massive soil failure, as shown by one of the helicopter shots. This is what Anchorage, Alaska will look like after their next big quake.
Will we learn anything from this earthquake? I sure hope they had put in a borehole accelerometer after the last quake, and some more instrumentation. The buildings so far look like the standard seismic death traps that always fail. On the aerial shots, the modern buildings did well. I'm waiting for the Japanese to come in and look for modern glass condos!
This gives you a good idea of the aftershocks of the new earthquake segment. So this was not an aftershock of the M7.1, but was a clean rupture down the fault a way. I always thought the big earthquake was in fact made of some segments of this size, but they ripped in a fast sequence. That would account for the relatively low PGV for that earthquake.
It will be interesting to see the PGV of this one. There was massive soil failure, as shown by one of the helicopter shots. This is what Anchorage, Alaska will look like after their next big quake.
Will we learn anything from this earthquake? I sure hope they had put in a borehole accelerometer after the last quake, and some more instrumentation. The buildings so far look like the standard seismic death traps that always fail. On the aerial shots, the modern buildings did well. I'm waiting for the Japanese to come in and look for modern glass condos!
New Zealand Earthquake Pictures
Article
This really was an Intensity VIII earthquake in the city. I would now guess a PGV of 70 cm/s, the same as the highest in Chile. Lots of liquefaction and probably very high soil amplification. For an M6.3, if they had accelerometers on the firm ground beneath, the PGV might only be 20-30 cm/s.
This really was an Intensity VIII earthquake in the city. I would now guess a PGV of 70 cm/s, the same as the highest in Chile. Lots of liquefaction and probably very high soil amplification. For an M6.3, if they had accelerometers on the firm ground beneath, the PGV might only be 20-30 cm/s.
Monday, February 21, 2011
New Zealand Earthquake M6.3
Clueless Swiss Become Less So
Article
"From the reinsurance perspective what is interesting and concerning is the number of claims from Australia and New Zealand. There's been quite a string of events.
"We are somewhat concerned as an industry because Australia and New Zealand in the past were considered attractive because they diversified our risk book.
"Do we now have to reconsider how we look at this risk? In my view there's a high likelihood that reinsurance prices will continue their way up," he said.
I generally call them Clueless Swiss, because of Swiss Re, but Munich Re is bigger. They will probably get less clueless as they lose tons of money, and jack up the rates. I'm sure they never look at the specifics of what they are insuring, and this whole thing may resemble the old US mortgage securities.
"From the reinsurance perspective what is interesting and concerning is the number of claims from Australia and New Zealand. There's been quite a string of events.
"We are somewhat concerned as an industry because Australia and New Zealand in the past were considered attractive because they diversified our risk book.
"Do we now have to reconsider how we look at this risk? In my view there's a high likelihood that reinsurance prices will continue their way up," he said.
I generally call them Clueless Swiss, because of Swiss Re, but Munich Re is bigger. They will probably get less clueless as they lose tons of money, and jack up the rates. I'm sure they never look at the specifics of what they are insuring, and this whole thing may resemble the old US mortgage securities.
Accelerometers - Part 4
I just wanted to finish this up, with a general recipe for doing it right.
The paper I was quoting was basically saying that you didn't need very expensive accelerometers if you had a broadband (broad range) seismometer. This is basically true since modern seismometers are capacitive accelerometers with a larger proof mass. They just directly integrate to velocity. Cheap accelerometers are mass-produced chips used for other purposes, and make fine limited-range accelerometers. More expensive, custom accelerometers use small-batch etched and micro-machined masses that are still quite small. The installation at Darlington used such instruments, and they are very rugged.
Still, cheap and wide deployment has it's benefits, as we have discovered from Chile. In my neck of the woods, I would pay more attention to calibration, and there lies the rub. The seismometers I helped deploy became calibrated by recording regional earthquakes. There is always the chance that you put the leads in backwards, or you located on a bad site. You can tell this by comparing the results to all the other local seismometers, and seeing that the new one generally fits. You can actually get a very precise account of the local site amplification.
Calibrating accelerometers on varying site conditions is a bitch. Chile appeared to have uniform soil conditions and all the (very old) accelerometers seemed to agree with each other. For NA I would make a special effort of calibration by purchasing the expensive broad-range accelerometers, and recording them continuously on a buffer, connected to the Internet. I would never use a trigger, and would fetch back the results, based on local seismometer detection of events. I've had lots of good earthquakes which should have been recorded by the accelerometers, but never the triggered the systems. This is endemic in NA.
Seismometers have a serious problem in noisy urban environments, but we can have some success at night, to calibrate the system. We have a seismometer on the Leslie St. Spit in Toronto, which is totally blanked during the day by noise, but is very sensitive at night. Nearly all other sites around Toronto have been rejected because of the severe noise, probably because the city is on the hanging wall of the Western Lake Ontario fault.
The paper I was quoting was basically saying that you didn't need very expensive accelerometers if you had a broadband (broad range) seismometer. This is basically true since modern seismometers are capacitive accelerometers with a larger proof mass. They just directly integrate to velocity. Cheap accelerometers are mass-produced chips used for other purposes, and make fine limited-range accelerometers. More expensive, custom accelerometers use small-batch etched and micro-machined masses that are still quite small. The installation at Darlington used such instruments, and they are very rugged.
Still, cheap and wide deployment has it's benefits, as we have discovered from Chile. In my neck of the woods, I would pay more attention to calibration, and there lies the rub. The seismometers I helped deploy became calibrated by recording regional earthquakes. There is always the chance that you put the leads in backwards, or you located on a bad site. You can tell this by comparing the results to all the other local seismometers, and seeing that the new one generally fits. You can actually get a very precise account of the local site amplification.
Calibrating accelerometers on varying site conditions is a bitch. Chile appeared to have uniform soil conditions and all the (very old) accelerometers seemed to agree with each other. For NA I would make a special effort of calibration by purchasing the expensive broad-range accelerometers, and recording them continuously on a buffer, connected to the Internet. I would never use a trigger, and would fetch back the results, based on local seismometer detection of events. I've had lots of good earthquakes which should have been recorded by the accelerometers, but never the triggered the systems. This is endemic in NA.
Seismometers have a serious problem in noisy urban environments, but we can have some success at night, to calibrate the system. We have a seismometer on the Leslie St. Spit in Toronto, which is totally blanked during the day by noise, but is very sensitive at night. Nearly all other sites around Toronto have been rejected because of the severe noise, probably because the city is on the hanging wall of the Western Lake Ontario fault.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Evil Arkansas Earthquake Plot Continues
ATTENTION, MINIONS! Last year we stole the moon, but this is even better! We are creating a new giant earthquake zone. It's in the middle of a bunch of creationists, so who cares? But soon it will become big enough to threaten the Clinton Museum! THEY WILL PAY!
The plan is simplicity itself. Disguised as a simple Starbucks, we have strategically placed injection wells along a weak thrust fault. All that we brew, we inject down 12,000 feet. This has the combined effect of creating a pressure bulb, as well as eating at the rock. The earthquake plots show our great success so far, and those locals don't have a clue!
As the fault gets bigger, we open up more Special Starbucks! There is already a strike-slip tail going off NE, but soon we'll have one at the other end of the thrust, going SW, straight to Little Rock! Our baby can already create M4's, but we are not happy with that. As it grows, we'll get M5's, and when it gets as big as the Toronto baby, an M6! As we speak, we are building a giant dam, so that our baby Frankie can feed itself, just like it's big brother up the valley. Those local dolts think these earthquake zones are dead because there is no accumulating strain, like the west coast. Ha, we'll show them!
Keep up the good work, minions. Evil is, as Evil does!
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Arkansas Earthquake Swarm Starts to Tail Off
That's a joke! Actually, I just didn't get in today's report. After all this time, they still can't plot the injection wells, or the time histories of injection. Sheesh! I think China does a better job....
Also top secret is what the heck they are injecting. I know they use a toxic witch's brew of chemicals, and I can't see if it makes any difference. But what we have here is a classic little New Madrid baby starting to grow up. Note the long tail going parallel to the NM tails, with the cross-cutting thrust section. If they could get fault-plane solutions (beachballs), we would see an exact baby New Madrid.
If I were guessing the injection point, it would be at the vertex of the 'checkmark'. Happy earthquakes, people!
Friday, February 18, 2011
Livclean Posts Removed
Most read posts ever, but the whole hotwater tank situation has changed, so I have taken off this weird portion of my blog. My hits are going way down!
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Parker Gallant Alive!
His opinion
After I speculated that 'they' had taken care of him, he turns up, talking about the Niagara Tunnel. Very nice.
Of course, I think he's become more subdued......
After I speculated that 'they' had taken care of him, he turns up, talking about the Niagara Tunnel. Very nice.
Of course, I think he's become more subdued......
Earthquake Twins - Vancouver and Santiago
One thing that sucks in the minds of old scientists is to look for the mysticism of universality in physical laws. I'm not Newton or Einstein, but I can look at rock, and I like the universality of wet, crushed rock. It's magnificent in that it is absolutely the same everywhere! You can take a sample, and apply all sorts of mechanical tests in a testing machine, and can't tell where it's from (sort of like wine, for me). You jack up the triaxial stresses, and it jumps from static to dynamic friction when it fails. That 'stress drop' is the juice of earthquakes, and it is universal. Temperature, pressure, and a bit of goop might change it.
The regional driving mechanisms may change, and there are only two distinct differences. On plate margins we ratchet up the regional strain, until the static friction is exceeded and we have an earthquake. Then the crust goes up or down a few metres, or slides along a transform fault. We either build up mountain ranges, or have large displacements.
On the interior of plates, we already have high stresses caused by the crust sinking into a cool spot (think of the Niagara Tunnel rock squeeze). There, the static friction is attacked by water-based stress corrosion until it fails, and we once again have an earthquake. We don't get mountain ranges, but rather we grow giant fracture zones, and deep water sinks.
With each type of mechanism, the geology is exactly the same, and results in the same landforms.
Here is Vancouver.
and here is Santiago, Chile.
Can you tell the difference? No you can't.
As a blessing to humanity, subduction zones have these beautiful strips of fine land between the mountains and the sea. Much like the fertile slopes of episodic volcanoes!
Vancouver has this, and Chile has another. Blessings to the god of wet, crushed rock universality!
Above is Chile. If the Laws of Rock were slightly different, we'd just have steep mountains rising out of the sea, and we wouldn't even have these two beautiful cities.
So, our settled zones rely on the fact that the rock isn't doing anything weird until it gets deep enough. And the price for coastal civilization, is earthquakes!
Here is the regional picture for Vancouver, followed by Santiago.
The only difference might be the speed of the plates zooming in, segmentation, and even the age of the oceanic crust. This would result in a slight difference to the maximum magnitude of the earthquakes, and the rate at which they hit you.
Right now, Chile seems to getting hit harder than Vancouver has been. I think its mainly the length of the subduction zone, and the b-curve, which demonstrates the relationship between small and large earthquakes. The crust only really rips when there is an M9+ earthquake. Then we can expect a 'stress shadow' (not many earthquakes) for a few hundred years. These M8's and such don't mean a thing!
The Chile zone might be 'rougher' in that it has a steeper b-curve, which means a lot of M8's are needed to set up an M9. I think Vancouver is 'smooth' in that the b-curve is relatively flat, and we just have one big M9 to form a stress shadow.
Vancouver thus has a double-edged blessing. It has fewer M7's and M8's, but thus less 'living history' warning. They are free to do any silly thing they want to!
In the end, Santiago may understand they have 'Glass Condos', but Vancouver will go on 'la-la' until you know what.
The regional driving mechanisms may change, and there are only two distinct differences. On plate margins we ratchet up the regional strain, until the static friction is exceeded and we have an earthquake. Then the crust goes up or down a few metres, or slides along a transform fault. We either build up mountain ranges, or have large displacements.
On the interior of plates, we already have high stresses caused by the crust sinking into a cool spot (think of the Niagara Tunnel rock squeeze). There, the static friction is attacked by water-based stress corrosion until it fails, and we once again have an earthquake. We don't get mountain ranges, but rather we grow giant fracture zones, and deep water sinks.
With each type of mechanism, the geology is exactly the same, and results in the same landforms.
Here is Vancouver.
and here is Santiago, Chile.
Can you tell the difference? No you can't.
As a blessing to humanity, subduction zones have these beautiful strips of fine land between the mountains and the sea. Much like the fertile slopes of episodic volcanoes!
Vancouver has this, and Chile has another. Blessings to the god of wet, crushed rock universality!
Above is Chile. If the Laws of Rock were slightly different, we'd just have steep mountains rising out of the sea, and we wouldn't even have these two beautiful cities.
So, our settled zones rely on the fact that the rock isn't doing anything weird until it gets deep enough. And the price for coastal civilization, is earthquakes!
Here is the regional picture for Vancouver, followed by Santiago.
The only difference might be the speed of the plates zooming in, segmentation, and even the age of the oceanic crust. This would result in a slight difference to the maximum magnitude of the earthquakes, and the rate at which they hit you.
Right now, Chile seems to getting hit harder than Vancouver has been. I think its mainly the length of the subduction zone, and the b-curve, which demonstrates the relationship between small and large earthquakes. The crust only really rips when there is an M9+ earthquake. Then we can expect a 'stress shadow' (not many earthquakes) for a few hundred years. These M8's and such don't mean a thing!
The Chile zone might be 'rougher' in that it has a steeper b-curve, which means a lot of M8's are needed to set up an M9. I think Vancouver is 'smooth' in that the b-curve is relatively flat, and we just have one big M9 to form a stress shadow.
Vancouver thus has a double-edged blessing. It has fewer M7's and M8's, but thus less 'living history' warning. They are free to do any silly thing they want to!
In the end, Santiago may understand they have 'Glass Condos', but Vancouver will go on 'la-la' until you know what.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Germany Earthquake - Fun Facts
Wow, an earthquake in Germany! Whoda thunk they'd allow such a thing!
It was only an M4.2, but it's in the Rhine Valley Graben, which is very interesting, if you are at all interested in Europe. :) This is a failed rift and is probably identical to others in North America, such as New Madrid, Ottawa, etc. It can spit out a large earthquake every 300 years or so, but I think this is a fragmented mechanism, and not capable of really large earthquakes. I'm sure the water-based fault mechanisms are active here, but do they have the seismic monitoring required? Just don't build standard N-S American condos here, people!
It was only an M4.2, but it's in the Rhine Valley Graben, which is very interesting, if you are at all interested in Europe. :) This is a failed rift and is probably identical to others in North America, such as New Madrid, Ottawa, etc. It can spit out a large earthquake every 300 years or so, but I think this is a fragmented mechanism, and not capable of really large earthquakes. I'm sure the water-based fault mechanisms are active here, but do they have the seismic monitoring required? Just don't build standard N-S American condos here, people!
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Google Not So Pure
Article
This striking performance lasted for months, most crucially through the holiday season, when there is a huge spike in online shopping. J. C. Penney even beat out the sites of manufacturers in searches for the products of those manufacturers. Type in “Samsonite carry on luggage,” for instance, and Penney for months was first on the list, ahead of Samsonite.com.
Bear in mind that I'm totally dependent on Mr. Google. I have no idea why he keeps up this blog for free. That said, I'm only mentioning this because I ran afoul of the 'Judge, Jurors, and Executioners' of Googlyland. This article shows that there may be something rotten there.
As we all know, Google ads are the slimiest thing in the world. The latest ones are "Buy a Chinese Girlfriend". I had these on the site, and tried to block the worst ones from Tom Cruise. As well, nobody who reads this blog would ever really click on those ads, so I asked them to. This gave me a nice income for wine. But the Google-meisters slammed down and banned me for life. No more Google-bucks. Maybe I was guilty, but it seems that they run their own country with their own laws. The fun of a total monopoly.
That's why I could never believe they could be so 'technically pure' with so much money at stake, so I loved this article!
This striking performance lasted for months, most crucially through the holiday season, when there is a huge spike in online shopping. J. C. Penney even beat out the sites of manufacturers in searches for the products of those manufacturers. Type in “Samsonite carry on luggage,” for instance, and Penney for months was first on the list, ahead of Samsonite.com.
Bear in mind that I'm totally dependent on Mr. Google. I have no idea why he keeps up this blog for free. That said, I'm only mentioning this because I ran afoul of the 'Judge, Jurors, and Executioners' of Googlyland. This article shows that there may be something rotten there.
As we all know, Google ads are the slimiest thing in the world. The latest ones are "Buy a Chinese Girlfriend". I had these on the site, and tried to block the worst ones from Tom Cruise. As well, nobody who reads this blog would ever really click on those ads, so I asked them to. This gave me a nice income for wine. But the Google-meisters slammed down and banned me for life. No more Google-bucks. Maybe I was guilty, but it seems that they run their own country with their own laws. The fun of a total monopoly.
That's why I could never believe they could be so 'technically pure' with so much money at stake, so I loved this article!
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Wind Power Dead in Ontario
Article
McGuinty pushed for the wind-farm projects, arguing it could be both an alternative as Ontario starts to phase out its coal-burning plants, and as a way of pushing further toward a green-based economy.
In the Spring of 2010, Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives called for a moratorium on the find-farm projects until an independent study on the environmental and health effects of the farms could be completed.
On Friday, the Ontario Liberals quietly mothballed the project, citing insufficient evidence on how they could effect people’s health.
This is the price for ignoring basic physics. I think this one will cost Ontario 7 billion, which is more than the Niagara Tunnel 4 billion. Will they also bury this in the old Ontario Hydro debt?
Speaking of that debt, there was this blogging guy who was looking into it. He has since disappeared. If anybody actually read my stuff, I'd be worried!
McGuinty pushed for the wind-farm projects, arguing it could be both an alternative as Ontario starts to phase out its coal-burning plants, and as a way of pushing further toward a green-based economy.
In the Spring of 2010, Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives called for a moratorium on the find-farm projects until an independent study on the environmental and health effects of the farms could be completed.
On Friday, the Ontario Liberals quietly mothballed the project, citing insufficient evidence on how they could effect people’s health.
This is the price for ignoring basic physics. I think this one will cost Ontario 7 billion, which is more than the Niagara Tunnel 4 billion. Will they also bury this in the old Ontario Hydro debt?
Speaking of that debt, there was this blogging guy who was looking into it. He has since disappeared. If anybody actually read my stuff, I'd be worried!
Friday, February 11, 2011
Rare Appearance by the CNSC Gnomes of Ottawa
Article
The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission is blasting what it calls "misinformation" and "fearmongering" about its decision to allow Bruce Power to transport 16 decommissioned nuclear steam boilers through the Great Lakes to Sweden for recycling.
"The word nuclear, every time it appears... there is the fearmongering," said Ramzi Jammal, executive vice-president of the nuclear watchdog.
Ok, this is as momentous as the Fall of Mubarak! CNSC people actually appearing and trying to claw back credibility! They've been invisible ever since they became a political toadie tool.
I agree with them totally. This ship is no risk whatsoever. What about the things that are a real hazard? Will they speak up against their masters? Ha.
That is the real problem about losing credibility. How can you control the crowds in the street? Ignorance and fear-mongering are part of the mix, if you used that to control them in the first place. When you piss in the wind, it always comes back. :)
The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission is blasting what it calls "misinformation" and "fearmongering" about its decision to allow Bruce Power to transport 16 decommissioned nuclear steam boilers through the Great Lakes to Sweden for recycling.
"The word nuclear, every time it appears... there is the fearmongering," said Ramzi Jammal, executive vice-president of the nuclear watchdog.
Ok, this is as momentous as the Fall of Mubarak! CNSC people actually appearing and trying to claw back credibility! They've been invisible ever since they became a political toadie tool.
I agree with them totally. This ship is no risk whatsoever. What about the things that are a real hazard? Will they speak up against their masters? Ha.
That is the real problem about losing credibility. How can you control the crowds in the street? Ignorance and fear-mongering are part of the mix, if you used that to control them in the first place. When you piss in the wind, it always comes back. :)
Chile Earthquake - M7
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Famous Earthquakes: Chile 2010 - The Big Building Code Condemnation - Part 2
As we have seen, the ground motions were fairly ordinary. We did not have the huge variations we see with Eastern North America. The soil here is sandy and uniform. I believe the measured PGV's truly reflect the input on the buildings.
What is the purpose of a seismic building code? I always thought building codes were designed to protect the poor independent engineers from greedy owners. If the owner said 'Use wallpaper paste!", the engineer could say "That's against code.", and be backed up by professional associations, and inspections. The first codes sprang to life in 1933, since it was observed that buildings which were designed to resist 10%g lateral, did quite well in earthquakes. This was equivalent to tilting the building by about 6 degrees. All building codes eventually incorporate some lateral coefficient in a static sense. This has, unfortunately, tied the code to PGA (peak ground acceleration), which is the big mistake of the ages. Another problem is that the engineers now work under the direct lash of the owner.
When has a new building code failed? A building code is said to have failed when the modern buildings do worse than the old ones. A profound failure is when those buildings collapse in a killing manner.
What do we expect from codes? I expect that codes will produce a minimum ruggedness in terms of PGV. Thus, I demand (as a tech-purist) that there should be no damage up to 50 cm/s and no collapse up to 100 cm/s. That's standard. If you pour in more money in rich areas by major faults, then you can up it by 10 or 20 percent. Now, New Zealand was ridiculously fragile at 20 cm/s, but they soaked the Clueless Swiss. Bank towers are rugged, and condos are fragile, as we shall now see.
As a digression: Speaking of bank towers and condos, I was lucky to live and work in downtown Toronto for some number of years. I saw the bank towers go up, massive, huge foundations. The buildings were trimmed in real gold. I knew that they were earthquake-proof! Then I saw the condos - thin flimsy walls, with no shear resistance. I thought: Are you kidding me? Lately, I've seen everything go up like this, and I just wonder....
Back to Chile
I'm just concentrating on Santiago, since it was exposed to 40 cm/s and should not have experienced any damage. Yet the place is peppered with cheap condos, just like any you would see in Vancouver or Toronto. Know what did them in? Their insatiable demand for underground parking space! The whole foundation for these buildings was a stack of cards.
There's a happy building. These towers are now tilted!
These condos are very trendy, I've seen them on Blue Clay in Boston!
No damage to the type of buildings you would expect damage.
Bank buildings have no damage.
I just extracted a small subset from the paper, which is somewhat Japanese-confused, but golden. It is fair to say that if a tower starts to lean at 40 cm/s, it's going over at 70 cm/s at ground zero, which is what happened.
Well, what does this mean? If you are a condo owner in Burlington or Vancouver, QUAKE IN YOUR BOOTS! Actually, I can't really say anything 'concrete' or I will be sued for diminished value. Luckily, we have the CLUELESS SWISS! Your condo value doesn't go to dirt if you scam them like New Zealand. Insure the whole market value of your asset, and double-insure the deductible. Hopefully, you'll walk out of it happy.
End.
What is the purpose of a seismic building code? I always thought building codes were designed to protect the poor independent engineers from greedy owners. If the owner said 'Use wallpaper paste!", the engineer could say "That's against code.", and be backed up by professional associations, and inspections. The first codes sprang to life in 1933, since it was observed that buildings which were designed to resist 10%g lateral, did quite well in earthquakes. This was equivalent to tilting the building by about 6 degrees. All building codes eventually incorporate some lateral coefficient in a static sense. This has, unfortunately, tied the code to PGA (peak ground acceleration), which is the big mistake of the ages. Another problem is that the engineers now work under the direct lash of the owner.
When has a new building code failed? A building code is said to have failed when the modern buildings do worse than the old ones. A profound failure is when those buildings collapse in a killing manner.
What do we expect from codes? I expect that codes will produce a minimum ruggedness in terms of PGV. Thus, I demand (as a tech-purist) that there should be no damage up to 50 cm/s and no collapse up to 100 cm/s. That's standard. If you pour in more money in rich areas by major faults, then you can up it by 10 or 20 percent. Now, New Zealand was ridiculously fragile at 20 cm/s, but they soaked the Clueless Swiss. Bank towers are rugged, and condos are fragile, as we shall now see.
As a digression: Speaking of bank towers and condos, I was lucky to live and work in downtown Toronto for some number of years. I saw the bank towers go up, massive, huge foundations. The buildings were trimmed in real gold. I knew that they were earthquake-proof! Then I saw the condos - thin flimsy walls, with no shear resistance. I thought: Are you kidding me? Lately, I've seen everything go up like this, and I just wonder....
Back to Chile
I'm just concentrating on Santiago, since it was exposed to 40 cm/s and should not have experienced any damage. Yet the place is peppered with cheap condos, just like any you would see in Vancouver or Toronto. Know what did them in? Their insatiable demand for underground parking space! The whole foundation for these buildings was a stack of cards.
LEANING TOWER OF CONDO
There's a happy building. These towers are now tilted!
These condos are very trendy, I've seen them on Blue Clay in Boston!
I just extracted a small subset from the paper, which is somewhat Japanese-confused, but golden. It is fair to say that if a tower starts to lean at 40 cm/s, it's going over at 70 cm/s at ground zero, which is what happened.
Well, what does this mean? If you are a condo owner in Burlington or Vancouver, QUAKE IN YOUR BOOTS! Actually, I can't really say anything 'concrete' or I will be sued for diminished value. Luckily, we have the CLUELESS SWISS! Your condo value doesn't go to dirt if you scam them like New Zealand. Insure the whole market value of your asset, and double-insure the deductible. Hopefully, you'll walk out of it happy.
End.
I Was Scammed by Bell!
Article
I knew my kids couldn't have used that much over Christmas! (yeah, really!). I demand my 60 bucks back! How can they tell I'm not innocent? How do I get my money! Time for a class-action lawsuit, where the lawyers get $59 and I get a coffee!
I knew my kids couldn't have used that much over Christmas! (yeah, really!). I demand my 60 bucks back! How can they tell I'm not innocent? How do I get my money! Time for a class-action lawsuit, where the lawyers get $59 and I get a coffee!
Famous Earthquakes: Chile 2010 - The Big Building Code Condemnation - Part 1
My Famous Earthquakes list consists of those events where I learned something. From most of these earthquakes I have learned that PGV (peak ground velocity) is the best measure for damage potential, that some super-shear earthquakes put out a PGV of over 100 cm/s that destroys almost anything. In general, for good building stock, we shall start to see facade and plaster damage at 20 cm/s, some light structural damage to housing stock at 50 cm/s, and major structural damage at 100 cm/s.
A glimpse of where I'm heading with this:
Building codes have used the wrong physics for years. I've told them and they've come back with: Being Wrong is Conservative. Well, Chile has showed them that wrong is wrong. This is not good news for those waiting for a subduction earthquake (BC and Alaska).
Building codes have always evolved with disaster. Many earthquakes have had a profound effect on the codes, namely by showing them to be inadequate. This is expected because there are always new materials and building techniques, and no real handle on ground motion physics. Many assumptions had to be made. In the past decades there have been extensive changes with modern methods, and no real check since Northridge or 1971.
For a real check you need good accelerometer records, and modern buildings, built to the current code. Lucky for us, Chile has all of this.
The Chile earthquake of 2010 was a wonderful, classic, clean subduction earthquake, well recorded.
You can see the intensities. Santiago, with all the useful information is off to the side, with a moderate intensity of about V, where you shouldn't expect much damage in a modern city.
A more useful map is this huge thing, which shows the clean rupture and accelerations (in the unfortunate Japanese units).
I only found this in Japanese papers, the North American engineers have been scared into paralysis. Note that Santiago is a fraction of the hot zone. A PGV of 40 as opposed to 70 cm/s at ground zero.
To be continued.
A glimpse of where I'm heading with this:
Building codes have used the wrong physics for years. I've told them and they've come back with: Being Wrong is Conservative. Well, Chile has showed them that wrong is wrong. This is not good news for those waiting for a subduction earthquake (BC and Alaska).
Building codes have always evolved with disaster. Many earthquakes have had a profound effect on the codes, namely by showing them to be inadequate. This is expected because there are always new materials and building techniques, and no real handle on ground motion physics. Many assumptions had to be made. In the past decades there have been extensive changes with modern methods, and no real check since Northridge or 1971.
For a real check you need good accelerometer records, and modern buildings, built to the current code. Lucky for us, Chile has all of this.
The Chile earthquake of 2010 was a wonderful, classic, clean subduction earthquake, well recorded.
You can see the intensities. Santiago, with all the useful information is off to the side, with a moderate intensity of about V, where you shouldn't expect much damage in a modern city.
A more useful map is this huge thing, which shows the clean rupture and accelerations (in the unfortunate Japanese units).
To be continued.
US New Nuclear Not Doing So Hot
Article
WASHINGTON | In his State of the Union address, President Barack Obama proposed giving the nuclear construction business a type of help it has never had, a role in a quota for clean energy. But recent setbacks in a hoped-for "nuclear renaissance" raise questions about how much of a role nuclear power can play.
WASHINGTON | In his State of the Union address, President Barack Obama proposed giving the nuclear construction business a type of help it has never had, a role in a quota for clean energy. But recent setbacks in a hoped-for "nuclear renaissance" raise questions about how much of a role nuclear power can play.
Alaska Earthquake on its final approach
Article
Two big earthquakes happened in the 60's - Chile and Alaska. We just had Chile go, so there is some concern for Alaska. They have a big problem with soft soils there, so things would be a mess.
Two big earthquakes happened in the 60's - Chile and Alaska. We just had Chile go, so there is some concern for Alaska. They have a big problem with soft soils there, so things would be a mess.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
The Next Waste Coast Earthquake - Good News
Good news for BC! (I'll do the bad news from Chile later). People have been grumpy because everybody says the big subduction earthquake happens every 300 years, and the last one happened over 300 years ago! This BSSA article has the happy news that the above is wrong! The big earthquakes happen about every 500 years, with a wide uncertainty band. Aren't we feeling better?
NIagara Tunnel To Break Out Feb 26
All you monopoly tv studios, with your monopoly Internet, put this on your calendar. The Niagara tunnel TBM has opened all stops, and is steaming ahead at 17 metres a day! It's hardly ever done this! That gives my estimate of Feb 26 for breakout into the receiving tunnel. Is there an election coming?
My estimate of the total cost is still somewhere around 4 billion dollars, which is hidden in the old Ontario Hydro debt. If they ever come out with an estimate of power from this, then we'll know exactly how much we are losing every year. My suspicion is that we are not getting much extra power, since they can't really puff up the seismic-death-trap pumped storage.
My kids came home for Christmas and they blew my monthly Internet cap (Bell) of 75g, over 2 months because the holidays straddled the billing period. Luckily (ha!) there is a max. surcharge of $30 per month.
Anyway, I expect our monopolists to cover this in a happy manner. The tunnel is pretty, and if I look real close at their pictures, I can just begin to see the longitudinal cracking of rock squeeze! (no, but it sounds nice, and that's why they would never let me in)
My estimate of the total cost is still somewhere around 4 billion dollars, which is hidden in the old Ontario Hydro debt. If they ever come out with an estimate of power from this, then we'll know exactly how much we are losing every year. My suspicion is that we are not getting much extra power, since they can't really puff up the seismic-death-trap pumped storage.
My kids came home for Christmas and they blew my monthly Internet cap (Bell) of 75g, over 2 months because the holidays straddled the billing period. Luckily (ha!) there is a max. surcharge of $30 per month.
Anyway, I expect our monopolists to cover this in a happy manner. The tunnel is pretty, and if I look real close at their pictures, I can just begin to see the longitudinal cracking of rock squeeze! (no, but it sounds nice, and that's why they would never let me in)
Blah, blah, back again
The Huffpo sale showed the tremendous value of my blog, even though I don't get anything. If you read, at least do something so I know you're alive! (Click on one of those things.) And those thousands of readers in India, what the heck?
Today we got sunlight, which is a first in a long time. We have been buried in snow, and I'm snowshoeing all over the place! No, I don't have sled dogs, and I don't shoot them (sorry Indian readers). Right now I'm just writing if it makes me happy.
Today we got sunlight, which is a first in a long time. We have been buried in snow, and I'm snowshoeing all over the place! No, I don't have sled dogs, and I don't shoot them (sorry Indian readers). Right now I'm just writing if it makes me happy.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Welcome to the Geofish Archives
The Geofish was booted out into retirement and vented his high dudgeon to the world. Although he never actually worked before that event, he felt obligated to do something in retirement, since everybody was always asking. Thus was born the Ontario Geofish blog. 2696 posts later he was bereft of any further observations of the human condition. Thus, he looks for a new post-post-retirement occupation.
Feel free to rummage in the basement of his past posts. Although he is starting to clean out his YouTube collection, this will last as long as Mr. Google wills it.
Feel free to rummage in the basement of his past posts. Although he is starting to clean out his YouTube collection, this will last as long as Mr. Google wills it.
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