Thursday, July 6, 2017

Toronto housing in free fall

Normally I wait for the month's sales figures and the big chart.  But they are so slow this month, that I'll make everything up.  That's what I do when the 'powers' don't cough up legitimate stuff.  If, however, the charts show happy news, I'll put in a retraction.

The physics predicted this in November.  Basic Physics is the study of forces acting on mass, I use it all the time when I'm trashing the warmies.  The basic force of housing is the money flowing in.  Too much money and prices zoom, no matter the legitimate demand.

In November that money flow stopped.  First the Trumpy victory crashed the bond market, and the Chinese stopped their money flow.  Total death for Toronto.  But the body kept twitching for months, until desperate sellers came out.

The new charts will show the impact of desperate sellers.  Pricing and volume will be down, but it's not over yet.  The big guys say words like 'normalization', etc.  They've all priced in a 20% drop.  New home buyers will be happy and buy like crazy in the fall.

Ha!  Not going to happen.  The entire Ontario economy has relied on housing and foreign money flowing in.  Everybody works for the banks or some company that builds things.  Does anybody see a problem here?  If not, then don't worry, be happy.

I predict that all the margin speculators will have to dump.  And we have interest rate rises coming, the main effect being that they can't drop interest rates to stop the freefall.  By the Fall, we'll have a fall of 30% and dropping further.  It may stop at 50%  but that is dependent on how much empty spec housing is shaken out of the tree.

I'll tack on the chart when it is out.  It really won't tell us anything new.

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