Reference
There is only anecdotal evidence because everybody is clamping up. But it looks like 30% are walking away from deposits. A robust market might be able to survive, but an over-extended bubble might not. And in Toronto, my observations point out that at least 30% of luxury condos are empty, due to money laundering.
So, following the Scientific Method:
Hypothesis: The knees have been chopped out from the Toronto housing market, and the realtors are bravely covering it up.
Physics: The hot money, mainly Chinese, have withdrawn from the market. Although a figure has been bandied about of only 5% foreign buyers, this does not include the 'snow washing' shell companies. The hot money was adding 20-30% to the price.
Validation: All stats are kept secret, but there are the monthly summaries. December sales showed a slightly larger than seasonal drop. January should show a drop through the seasonal floor. And, of course, further months will be more than 30% below normal. Prices will hold for 6 months, as sellers dig in. The hypothesis has failed if sales pick up to the normal trend in the Spring.
Extrapolation: This is a sufficient shock to force all the speculators to unwind. All the empty housing will go on the market in 6 months. The prices will drop 50%. Huge layoffs in financial services and housing construction. New condos may be capped.
No comments:
Post a Comment