Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Seismic Hazard for Ontario Nuclear Plants Triples

I have confession to make.  When I first installed all those seismometers (along with people who knew what they were doing, I couldn't install a lightbulb), I did it so we could find out more about the true seismic hazard of the region.  I was convinced that the truth would set me free, in that we would localize the really big earthquakes to the Hamilton fault.  The trouble with the old fashioned probability analysis was it would slide a big earthquake right under the plant as you went to lower odds.  So, there was a huge jump in ground motion for every probability decade, ie. 10-5 was much larger than 10-4.  This was unsafe, since the basic premise of seismic design was that if you designed linearly for a higher probability (10-3), you'd be good for graceful decay at the rarer levels (ie. no horrible cliff).  Seismic is not supposed to blow out everything until 10-7 or there about, whatever that means.

Now, the geology shows that I was wrong.  Ohio, Arkansas and Oklahoma show us that water activates all the megathrusts, and water has been seeping down under the lakes for thousands of years.  You can see the two strongest linears in Lake Ontario.  To me, this is horrifying.

We have to add this to the fact that the lake sediments look like they were churned by multiple earthquakes.  Thank god that was suppressed by Harper-science!  And the regulator toadies just smile.

I could list some mitigating factor about seismic wave stress and all that, but my scenario of nuclear destruction, especially for Pickering has become a bit more probable.  I write this because all of Canada is in on this reality distortion and the geology will be dismissed, just like they dismiss it for the Bruce Black Hole. That keeps me out of trouble.  :)  And it's no use for you remaining homeless newshounds, everything is locked up tight.

**Did you know I heard that they sent a group of intense dummies honourable very old engineers to look again at the Maple reactors and figure out what went wrong.  That place is an absolutely pure Seismic Death Trap, and they didn't put in the internal bracing that the Koreans did, which in turn saved the Korean Maple because it eliminated the internal distortion that caused the Canadian problem.  Sort of like an earthquake while operating.  :)

Answers:  One question from g+.  Yes these are the megathrusts that caused New Madrid and Oklahoma.  Keep those questions rolling.  Any hint that the Big Canada Putins are reading this, will send me scurrying under the nearest rock.  Links:  Megathrust    Nuclear Scenario
Please note that the Pickering threat is mitigated by 'time at risk', in other words:  "Thank God it's shutting down."

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