This is a battle of long vs. short term. If people want to defend the status quo, then they go long. If there is good physics (forces) behind things, then the short term is valid. For earthquakes, the short term always dominates, during a big one.
The ice volume 'crossed lanes' during our miserable summer. It's in the freezing slot now, and chugging along merrily with 'history'.
The longer term, since the cold cycle of the 70-80's has shown decreasing ice volumes. However, the Inuit say the polar bears are now doing fine, and I believe them.
My hypothesis, then, is that the 'current' line will cross more lanes (more ice volume) during the miserable summer coming up. If we have a nice, hot summer, then I lose with my hypothesis, but I win with beer on the sunny cottage dock. If my hypothesis holds, then I can console myself with beer on the dock, and good fishing. :)