Saturday, December 13, 2025

Not much exciting going on

 Very dull.  All the indicators of yesterday have folded in on themselves, and the Arctic is in recharge.


This appears to be our default weather for the winter.


Greenland is warm, but Ellesmere Island is a bit black.



We'll let you know if there is something exciting.

ps the regular forecast has us warming up a lot.  That's why natgas is down.

ps I don't see where this warmth will come from.  This will be exciting for me when we have aliens dropping the heat energy.


Friday, December 12, 2025

Arctic mechanism changing by the minute

 This really puts a damper on any attempt to forecast for 7 days.  You just don't know what this Arctic thing will spit out.


I'm just going to back to it every couple of hours.  You can see a perfect Arctic recharge vortex, but it is suddenly taking in a huge amount of warmish air from Siberia.  Everything is back-flowing into it.

The Canadian outflow has suddenly increased by a factor of 10.  I'll look back at it by lunch.

Basically, the mechanism takes regional warm air and cools it down to a dense sludge, which fills up the basin, and then spills out in some direction.  Still looks like its going to be Canada for a while now.  The Europe gate is just too clogged up with the Gulf Stream heat.

ps OMG, dog walk was freezing!  I'll have to go up another level.

ps the flow has been cut off.  Something to be said about not checking too often. Back to once a day.



Arctic blob is most likely an A6, or minor

 I can't read this one at all.  It now appears to be 'leakage' and not a major event.


Now that it gets into moisture, you can see it has a very tight front.


Greenland is warm, and the Hudson Bay warm water zone is holding.  It is actually a reverse lobate front, which we haven't seen this year.  It all implies the event is a loser.  Yukon black is the new blue.


Definitely, just a 'Spear of Destiny'.  


And yet the 'Wind Cavalry' is coming to the rescue.  The front is broadening according to the winds.  Elsewhere, we continue to have a recharge vortex, and a warm Greenland, so we are getting ready for a major event.  I hope it's Europe, much funnier that way.

ps. and they've given up on the winter forecast.  



Poor people are intellectually bankrupt.  Their forecast is today's weather, with Hudbay warmth still existing.  Sad.