Tuesday, June 10, 2008

High dam may have triggered massive China quake

I like this article, since it has all the elements to be rational, although I can't confirm the facts. This is one of those things that should be looked at in detail, such as was done with the infamous mud volcano.

The dam was quite high, and truthfully, these things can only knock off a maximum of an M6 in the local area, because of fractal considerations, and the fault dimensions. You would be stretching it to start an M7, because that requires about 30 km of disturbance.

But an M6 or 7 can tip the first domino, if everything else is ready to go! An M8 is just 30 M7's all strung together. I just know that I wouldn't want to be shooting off M6's in that powder keg!

Thus, as the man says, an M8 was inevitable for the area, but maybe not for another 100 years. A detailed look at the seismic records could confirm a non-linear increase in earthquake energy for the dam, but why do I think this isn't going to happen? They got enough problems with the shoddy school issue, and I think they are going to sit on this.

Personally, I'm happy with the statement that the dam triggered this massive quake, but who am I? And does it really matter?

3 comments:

Robert said...

You may be interested in the paper linked below:

http://www.johnmartin.com/earthquakes/eqpapers/00000054.htm

Robert said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Harold Asmis said...

Quite a comprehensive site.