Huge influx of readers for some reason

 On Google Analytics, I get my usual 3 readers a day, and a small number of tourists.  The Blogger stats are always contaminated by link spam and get 10,000 per day.  Now I suddenly got a 'legimate' 1.4K readers, but maybe there is a hack going on.

If suddenly, thousands of people want to follow the 'Rational Path' then you can buy me a cup of coffee.  You will be disappointed if you want to follow a guru, because I bite all the hands that feed me.

The Rational Path is just the Scientific Method.  It came into being because of the endless 'quackery' of the Victorian Era, or Snake Oil.  We now live in an era of snake oil, because of influencers with thousands of followers, and that defines 'truth'.

We have the snake oil of climate change.  I do not argue against it, because 'argument' does not lead to scientific progress.  If we recast the issue in the Scientific Method, we put forward a hypothesis that can be tested.  The test must allow for the hypothesis to 'fail'.  Religious faith cannot fail, and Climate Change cannot fail by means of an experiment.

We have so many 'faiths' that I cannot recall them all.  The blogs were about the coming of El Nino, and earthquake engineering.  These are faiths and tradition and prop up a 'priesthood' who cannot afford to say 'My Bad'.  When you see that, look out.

Thank you for giving me the illusion of readership, which can only be confirmed by coffee.  I am safe from the countless priesthoods with academic blood on their hands, because to argue with me would make things 10 times worse.  If I really thought I was becoming an influencer, I would hide under a big rock.

The deaths by earthquakes are an example of what happens when the real world meets faith.  They should have not happened.  A simple sensor can tell if your building is going to kill you, but that requires physics, and the Scientific Method.  Not going to happen, since the SM can shatter a priesthood in a blink.  Much too dangerous.

Earthquake methodology has an obvious physical failure.  Rockets blow up.  The El Nino will not show up, and excuses will be made, or all of it is totally forgotten.  The waste of resources, however, results in thousands of deaths, as people fall in Standard of Living.

ps no coffees.  It all looks like an exploit of link spam.  Neat.

ps very sad I cannot access any velocity data for this earthquake.

Nino zone hooks down

 As explained yesterday, the mechanism of two ships passing in the night, cause a big spike and now we are going to have a big drop.  

This should be quite something.  Don't you worry, though, El Santa is real in the hearts and minds of all those people who make money from him.  Our weather is boring, but I'll keep updating this.  Unless I'm wrong, of course, then I'll hide.

Thrust earthquakes in outer disturbed zones

 Two thrust earthquakes this week.  First, a big one in the Philippines.  Then a smaller one north of Cuba.

The size of this one is defined by the aftershock zone.

The Cuba earthquake most likely won't have aftershocks.  These earthquakes can pack a punch close to the epicentre.  

Damage for weak construction, but a lot of buildings stood.  This is typical for 20 cm/s.  All buildings should ride through this level of ground motion.  We won't get recordings here.

Two ships grinding in the night

 

Arctic spills are still dominating our weather.

Our only source of heat and rain is the Gulf of Mexico, and it is running out of gas, like the rest of the world.  Expect big droughts.

Still no El Nino hype.  Weird, because the Nino zone is going ballistic.  That is, 'two ships grinding in the night' because the old heating event blob is colliding on the end of the Nino zone.  It is almost past, and I'm waiting for this curve to drop.  

The tropics are nothing compared the 'posthumously declared'  El Nino of 2023-4.  This will also drop when the heat blob passes on to die in Antarctica, like the last one.

ps the nino zone has now peak and is flat.  I expect it to go down now.  

Spaceyx - Line up with your money

 

Of all the coming groupthink busts, this one is the biggest party.  Selling useless stock for $75B, puts up the value to 2 trillion.  He lives in his drug-addled head, but can put on a good show.

The big rocket flies like a pig, so he threw in Artie, just to join crowd.  Total genius!  At your next party you can brag about this investment, the second coming of El Nino, and how windmills are the future.  You can probably get that leftie college girl, if you have a Texla car.  All is good.

El Nino Watch

 In the old days, all of recorded history, we had a classic cycle in the Pacific.  The Pacific Equatorial Belt would be fed from the northern waters, and a strong current would go west along the equator.  The mechanism for this is quite simple, and involves rising hot water, and the equatorial bulge.  Every 7 years or so, the hot water would clog up at the far western end, and barf back, as an El Nino.  

The weather people believe that the air drives the ocean currents, and stick with that.  It's a horrendous physics error, but it defines them.  

In 2016, we had a tremendous event where the Pacific Belt was suddenly fed from the south.  This sucked in the Antarctic cold water, and the Pacific Belt became cold.  I could tell you about my frozen Tahiti vacation.  The old cycle was shattered, and my hypothesis is that this event was the mechanism for a 300 year cold cycle, or Little Ice Age.  As usual, all my hypotheses could be easily tested, but never will be.

With the El Nino Watch, since it doesn't exist any more, we just look at why they are being so obtuse.

We look at sea temps and it is obvious that the feed is from the south because of the temperature distortion.  All water temps want to be stratified along latitude lines, but ocean currents pull things.

This is the anomaly plot.  Flash both pictures in your mind.  Something is wrong.  However, the weather people choose whatever works for them.  There is a mechanism for this, but who cares?  Let's have an El Nino party!

Classic Summer Coming Our Way

 The forecast looks great.  Last year we had a good June, then a miserable July.  I can't remember why.  I'll try and keep better track this year, but when I go to the cottage, I can't do weather.

On this view, the Arctic has given up, and we are getting hot tropical air.

Then we look at Europe, and there is a huge Greenland Blob in the Atlantic.  

Lucky us!  The only heat in the world.  Let's take those pictures!

This doesn't show much, but I suspect the Arctic will ruin our July again.

El Nino 'Hype Index' falls

 We can never apply physics to fantasy, but we can apply physics (math) to the appearance of hype.  All 'El Nino will get you!' references are now 3 days old.  The hype index is falling faster than world temperatures, if anybody had a way to measure anything.

We were measuring the state of world temperature by pictures of people drinking water.  Only the States shows a bit of heat, and no leftie cares about those trumpies.  The world is cold.

This is exciting that the left-over blob of a recent heating event continues its voyage south and has gone past the equator.  No el no-no here.  The old blob of the 2024 heating event has been cut up by the cold water of the SE Pacific.  

The equatorial band is cold.  This is the usual ellie track for warmth.  What they are showing on the charts, and what you see here is north of the equator, and is due to a very shallow water return.  The coast of S Am is warmer than normal because of the lack of a deep water draw that defined the old currents.

I am putting out the hypothesis that the 'fantasy fervour' is flagging.  This whole thing will fade away, and we wait for the new great predictions.  They are 'batting zero' but everybody believes them, sort of like trumpy and 'peace any minute' oil manipulation, but even that has reached a limit.

Russia attempts to fix something - Look Out!

 

Keep looking up!

Enjoy the Bruce Nuclear Party!

 

They were building Bruce B when I first joined the Old Company.  I am deeply aware of the site.  You see that nice line?  It is the uncharted breakout of the Grenville Fault, part of the magnificent structure of the deep crust under Ontario.  When I was doing site selection, before the Ontario ndp destroyed us, I rejected all of this as a site.

It is amazing what you can see with blinkers on.  The lefties can't oppose this based on geology and physics, because that is the same stuff that destroys the illusion of climate change.  

 

Bruce C plops into that hole in the middle.  Lots of tunnels for water intake and outflow.  A wonderful project, and I will never oppose it.  I opposed the nuclear waste site just up the road on the same swiss-cheese rock, and was thoroughly swatted by the government review team.  Who cares about the deep rock?  It's so deep!  At least that thing was quietly dropped.

But I am ridiculous with an interest in geophysics.  I am also proposing that Pickering B has had the ground settle under it, and is suspended 3m by the steel piles, a fine zone for go-carts.  At least I'm all for the Wesleyville big nuclear plant, that is solid rock.

As I have written, we are in the zone for a New Madrid style earthquake at the 1 in 1000 to 10000 odds per year.  That's the Hamilton fault with endless signs that it is more active than New Madrid.  When you have a nuclear plant with bad foundations, it bounces like a jelly cake.  That makes the odds of a major radiation cook-off at 1 in 10,000, instead of the expected 1 in ten million.  All of this can be swatted by pronouncements from influencers.

I will never get above my 3 readers, because the strict use of the Scientific Method would destroy political power.  We just wait and have parties.

ps I love the concept of a Mining Influencer

Yes, we are starting the Party of Rationality.  

Arctic blob fails

 

Finally, the Arctic is shattered.  It should warm up now, and we'll get all sorts of horror articles on how the ice is melting.

No places for heatwave pictures.  Everybody is cold.

It's all fine.  We should have heat soon.

Canada to ship water and electricity around the world

 

This is great.  We used to be worried that people would take our water.  Kind of silly, water is impossible to move around, so is electricity.  But, I want to be a Physics Influencer, and I can make a video of me, without me.  Of course, I'll be better:  a bit more chiselled with cheekbones.  Make me 30 years younger.  Open up those eyes more.  The voice sounds like a chipmunk, Lorne Greene voice please.

Every time you see my video, I'm throwing a glass of water at you.  So neat.

I don't see much money here, because everybody and their dog is doing it.  Greenhouses and drugs are the way for more money.  I want Coca tea!

A fine stagnant pocket you got us into

 

That Arctic front will bring us some rain, but won't do much.  We are into the full stagnant heat.

That magnificent Arctic Swirl is run by the heat seeping out of Europe.  The hot plume has gone away.

Europe has cleared, it is only us now for the pictures.  As we know, pictures are now the official determination of clange.

That Arctic Swirl is amazing, and is the mechanism for the summer warming of that region.

ps  All Hail El Santa!

ps and we'll have fun, fun, fun 'till the daddy takes El Nino away.

Tide level at zero

 

This is my favourite tide gauge.  It shows all the hot and cold spells since 1930.  The new result for April is exactly zero.  You can see the warm spell from 1997 to 2016, the two big El Ninos.  Oddly enough, 2024 was just a minor heating event that knocked up the world air temperatures, but did nothing to the water.  Did we even notice it?

There is nothing for El Santa coming up.  I am wondering how they will make this whole thing up.  The warmth of the Earth is determined by pictures, real or not.  

Slave Labour in Canada

 

Boy, they have somebody digging deep for new tariff things.  He breaks the law with a phoney excuse, gathers the money, and then has to give it back.  He must skim some money somehow.

ps I suppose if he looks in my backyard or cottage, he might find some forced labour....

Arctic pulse is huge, but no teeth

 

We're lucky to get these.  Our only source of rain for the next two months.  With no Pacific action we just get the collision of Arctic and Gulf air.

The Arctic is spinning away, and I can't figure out the energy source.  Oh well, I'm turning off my brain for the summer, and getting ready for the big El Santa party.  We'll have pinatas!

ps  geez that's hot out!

El Nino Officially Declared - Massive Physics Error, One for the Ages

 

There it is.  I didn't think they would do it.  The fantasy El Nino is upon us.  It is a real thing in fantasy-land, because they can declare it until their teeth fall out.

For physics, it has to have a real effect that can whack you on the head.  A physics El Nino is a giant heat energy dump from the Pacific, that encompasses all the tropics.  A physics El Nino sets itself up a year in advance.  We will actually have a long, warm summer, and a mild winter.

We are missing the heat energy.  Nevertheless, I have great faith that we can talk up an El Nino to the bazzoo.   There are no mechanisms defined, and there are no effects defined.  Everything is in the heads of the High Priests of Weather.  So, we actually have a Faith-Based El Nino.  Run out and enjoy it.

 ps I was thinking of a fifa game with no physics.  Everybody just dribbles the ball and there are no goal posts.  The winner of the game is decided by the owners making the money, by the best pictures.

ps this is so amazing!  It's Santa Claus!  When my kids got to that troublesome age of questioning if Santa existed, I said 'He is real.'.   Would you expect me to shlep all over town to get presents, if he wasn't real?'  We need songs.  They read me and had to push this up because of the short stagnant, intense summer.  So many pictures!  

Arctic action is impressive

 Totally missed it this morning.  

Just when I said the Arctic was dead, it revs up a powerful vortex, and sends down a huge blob on the Prairies, giving rain, and a lot more.

That's one heck of a vortex.  Maybe the heat and cold vortexes are the same, or a continuum.

They got the only rain in the area.

The Hindentractor

 

Hydrogen's problem is that it can't move without blowing up.  It eats seals, and this is a rotating one.  I love it!

El Nino Watch

 Our High Priests of Fantasy promise us a Super El Nino any day now.  It's been going on in the media for months.  It's like trumpy "Any day now, I will grind Iran under my feet.".  

What I know is confusing them is this 'Diagonal Heating Event' diving into the South Pacific.  It is skimming the old 'Nino Zone', which is a defined area that used to define El Nino.  However, the great scandal is that they missed the 2024 heating event which followed the same diagonal path.  After expanding the Nino Watch Zone immensely, they went back to rewrite history and say they knew 2024 was an El Nino, all along.  It's amazing what you can do if you control everything.

I just noticed that this blob has become more defined on this plot.  But it is continuing the diagonal motion, and not zooming down the equatorial channel like a regular El Nino.  This one is spent and is not affecting the world temperatures.

The world temperatures are hooking down again.  Enjoy your very short summer.  Just put your memories into the one-day heatwaves, and you'll be happy.

ps El Nino is here!

The latest NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion reveals that ENSO-neutral conditions are rapidly transitioning. There is a 97-98% probability that an El Niño event will dominate the remainder of 2026 and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

ps they are now hung up on that residual heating event blob, like I said they would be.  Maybe order light for your 'Welcome El Nino' party.  The guest of honour won't show up.

ps the UN has made a declaration that it's here, right now.

Our little pocket of cold has been cut off

 

The Toronto weather forecast has suddenly changed to hot weather.  Arctic seepage has stopped everywhere, and we are in the Stagnant Soup.  The US midwest will get the last rain, as the blob of cold air goes to die.

No heat energy in the tropics.  Since this is the source of all rain away from the equator, expect the 300 year drought to continue.  China has exactly the same conditions as the US midwest.

ps and India is cold

Sure is hard for them to find hot places.

Cottage report and no sign of El No-no

 The cottage weather is amazing.  We get all four seasons each day.  Winter in the morning, then Spring, and I'm waiting for Summer, when the dragonflies come out.

The heating event of 2024 was never call an Ellie, because the mechanism was completely different.  They only called it recently.  I was always looking, and maybe they fudged with history again.  

This gave a very strong tropics signal in 2023, a year in advance.  There is nothing like that now, even though they expect it any day now.  I'm not going in to the betting sites, because I think they will fudge it again.

ps we only stayed one night, and came home early.  This extreme temperature thing made us ill.  All Clange.