Today, we had a lesson in wind chill. Ow my fingers! The monster coyote-thing was out and I had to control the dog with the bare hands out.
The tropical plumes continue to squeeze the Arctic, and the excess comes down on us.
The warm air is a chain feed from the equator, and has set up the momentum of warm air being sucked up past Greenland. This pattern could stay for weeks. Good for the UK. And this means I'm not going to get the ice build-up around Svalbard that I was expecting.
.gif)
Haven't seen this for a while. That tiny little storm preceding the line storm was strong enough down the street. We are now into the cold blobs that dominated the summer, with its huge storms and tornadoes. These things are different beasts than the standard mid-west tornado. The weather people are scratching their heads.
Good thing the neighbour up the road got their sewer pipe de-rooted.
ps -- Storm broke up, nothing to see here.
ps. -- on the longer timeline, you can see the Gulf hurricane getting smashed by the cold blob.
Now that trumples is handing out weird titles, I had a dream...
Standing in front of the magalists, I give my presentation:
"Yes, people, make 'merica great again! I need lots of money, so I can avoid the Ticky Terrorists. US dollars, please, our great progress will destroy the camel-toed tooney.
We will go through the history on how all of us were destroyed by leftwingers, which allowed China to surge. We will forget about the good guys in Russia - let them take over all of lefty Europe - who cares?
When we are through, we'll save a lot of money with a bankrupt China, and Mr. tight-money will be happy, and can buy his giant Baby Mamma LA mansion.
.. Whoops, can't give away all the secrets. I'm waiting for my first check...
ps -- the big AI scrapers have given up on me. My blog hits went from 4K a day to virtually nothing now. I just can't suck up to anything, and if any hand was feeding me, I'd bite it.
A cold blob has a nicely shaped leading edge. The mechanics of this is simply jelly sliding on a plate. The thicker interior has a higher velocity, and piles up at the edge.
A powerful tropical plume is about to hit the Arctic, but this might just be squeezing the ketchup bottle, and squirting the cold at us. You can see another cold blob coming down.
The winds are really mucky, with a huge clockwise gyre off the east coast.
ps. for the Alaska view, you can see the blob, but strong Pacific air is coming over the mountains. Alberta will have lots of snow.
the cold blobs are hitting the Pacific plumes, but they have enough heat energy to keep on truckin'.
After hurricanes, power failures, etc, we have a big earthquake. An M7 shallow thrust is like the Kobe earthquake, and is the deadliest type, based on ground velocity. We don't know much right now.
That fault plane solution is thrust with strike-slip.
We have the main Caribbean fault there, and this is connected with the Haiti earthquake. In the historical records, earthquakes on this fault come one right after another. Should be a big one soon north of Haiti.
You can see the beautiful clean fault zone. It's partially subduction with a slide to the east. This earthquake fits the picture of being a foreshock to an M9, but that's a hundred to one.
We won't learn anything from this earthquake because all the construction is suspect, and there is no instrumentation. I'm guessing 80 cm/s in the worst zones, and that's enough to tip a solid building.
ps. you can see the full fault now, with the aftershocks. This is absolutely a foreshock, but it might take 20 years. I think all the historic big earthquakes were done in 50 years, but I don't remember.
ps you can see the historical earthquakes here. Nothing over M8, but that's a historical rating. You can see they come in clusters.
ps please remember that there is a 90% chance that this is a one-off event for now.
These things are always a result of clange. However, now they want to do mechanisms by stories. Now, you may pooh-pooh this, but they have results. In this article, after all the stories, they came up with only 9% more rain due to clange. The 'noise band' of uncertainty, that has been hitting me for a while, is 10 to 20%.
Pushing a mechanism that lies under the noise band, is a great thing for philosophers. They do it all the time. Yes, the tail can wag the dog, and contributes 1% of the total motion. That's enough for an entire 'influscience' campaign. The working class of the US has rejected that.
ps. this is actually a study on the physics of story telling.
ps. and in a burst of trumpian rationality, we have people calling it 'relative sea level' with no mention of Greenland melting.
Who would expect this? With nosa and nooa on the skids, we can expect more of these.
ps I don't know, but I think the hold of "Ticky Terror" is cracking with the total defeat of the leftwingers. They are tearing into each other about who is or isn't left-wingy enough.
But if all of these 'influscience porn sites' turn to mechanisms, it will be interesting. The tornadoes were different for Southern Ontario this year, because the mechanism was totally different than normal. They might realize that sooner or later.
Ha, at a family dinner last night, and everyone is after me about the warmth this month. Blah. Anyway, the Pacific air is doing a nice job for us in Toronto. The cold blobs are being shoved over to the East.
Out in the Atlantic, one cyclone is feeding another with warm air right to the Arctic.
Greenland is warm and the Pacific air is warming it. The only consequence of all this is that Vancouver is getting some hefty winds.
And the mimic looks weak
Good grief. The pattern from the summer has gone away, to be replaced with chaos, until we have another pattern. The Atlantic tropical plumes are still warming the Arctic. We wait.
ps. today, the warm air continues to pump up the Arctic.
Summary
Harold Asmis's blog post is about the risk of earthquakes in eastern Canada, specifically Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal. He claims that these cities have a similar level of risk as Vancouver, despite being further from a subduction zone. He states that the risk of earthquakes in the east would be more widespread than in Vancouver. He argues that these cities should invest in earthquake-resistant infrastructure to minimize potential damage.
This is interesting. Every few years, they come out with a bunch of media stories. I used write heavily on earthquakes, until they all left town. We are in a very boring era, with only clange being interesting.
This time they are doing a "Kobe-style" earthquake, which is formed from the general stresses around subduction zones. All the big cities have a risk to this type of earthquake. I define it as a 'general' 40 cm/s on common soil. It's 80 cm/s on the landfill and filled swamps.
Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal all have the same hazard and risk as Vancouver. It's just a mater of how the 'big dice in the sky' roll. In the East, we have the problem that the '40 zone' would extend much further than in Vancouver,
I'll go with their estimates, mainly old brick buildings. This would be like Christchurch, New Zealand.
If any of these cities wanted to limit economic damage, they would instrument the buildings. I'm working on devices that would be very cheap. You can bring back a building to service, if you see that it hasn't softened at all. Of course, none of this will be done.
ps. the AI summary really guts the article.
ps that summary just makes me want to rip my head off. I'll stop doing it, I don't want to blend in.
A new feature is the Notebook LM summary.
I lasted two days and now I came back to the news, to find nothing. Except that 43 monkeys are trying to get out of Dodge.
The Arctic is practically recharged, and playing with us again.
We have a narrow spear of cold slipping through the Pacific air. Time to start wearing my lined pants! The tiny hurricane is feeling the cold, and is dying.
Those are probably the last plumes to hit the Arctic, and a cold blob is trying to work its way down.
You can see this is an epic fight between the cold and the hot, but the cold has to win.
The price of lithium is down, and natgas should go up.
ps. a 'Cold Spear' is a new thing for this year. It's half a clipper, caused when there is both a cold outbreak, and Pacific air over the mountains at Vancouver.
I'm about to go walking with the dog, who knows as much about the world that I do. Every single person shouting at you on the news wants to make money.
Just to keep busy, we look at the Gulf of Mexico, which is nursing a small hurricane.
You can see that the two previous hurricanes sucked the life out of the place. All of a sudden there is huge heat energy. You know that can't happen, the hurricane is fooling the results. This happens a lot this time of the year.
For me, the most important chart for the long term is the 'Nino Band' of the Pacific.
That's lower than... (insert news reference here). But our weather is currently dictated by the residual heat of the North Atlantic.
That's way up there, but we have a lot of cyclones.
And the sub-polar N Atlantic is as bad as the Gulf. Cyclones and tropical plumes are up to their mischief here. You can't get a clean shot at the water surface.
Greenland is about to go white, and then we'll have some cold that won't be reported in the doomer news.
ps. lots of ebooks lined up with my subscription.
ps. relatives in California are all depressed. I told them I'm turning over the machines from lawnmower to snowblower. That cheered them up.
ps I mention to the neighbours that this year the city is going to get serious about dumping all the leaves on the road, and they think I ratted on them. Sad. Same as blaming me for earthquakes and cold. I'm still off doom scrolling and I'll be off reporting cold.
I have totally stopped doom-scrolling the news for a whole day. It feels nice.
.gif)
We have a lot of air coming over the mountains, and crossing the whole continent. This will give us nice clear weather. The little hurricane in the Gulf is probably choking on cold water.
A very unusual air flow, but it is nice to have.
The Arctic is almost fully charged and will be throwing cold blobs at us soon.
I am oscillating wildly between depression and hope, with the US thing.
Things to do for muskie
Get rid of NASA - have they done anything good in the past few years? All the real work is done by contractors. Out they go!
NOAA as well - totally contaminated by 'old company disease'. Along with nasa, they are the chief architects of the clange groupthink.
US corps of engineers - just a big pork barrel
USGS - they are totally wrong on so many things.
With all these bureaucratic blob-bags gone, we can get away from 'influscience' and back to the rationality of the 50's. We can always go back to summer camp - the dream of the old guys.
A lot of the old-school senators and such won't want to get rid of pork barrels, but muskie can pay them off with a rigged lottery. Yeah!
ps Now, I will go into the depressive side. I'm not reading any news, and will stop posting.
And here we are. No comment on anything. However, if the world goes back to the Scientific Method, I might have something to say. I'm not expecting a return to physics.
ps. with the cold, I think the Canadian economy might just crack.
ps
Bought this at ammie, on sale. It's an extrusion pasta maker. Man, it was horrible getting everything right, since all the instructions are wrong, but now, I am cruising.
This is so much better than store pasta, and it rates with my coffee roasting as a huge improvement in the standard of living, without a lot of money. So, the good life is defined by an all-year hot tub, an espresso machine with home roasted beans, homemade pasta, and a frozen cottage. Who cares that we will boil to death in 100 years? Won't be there....
ps whoops, and raisin bread from the bread maker
I am officially declaring a total failure of my prediction for snow in October, and a very cold November.
All our heat energy comes from this Pacific belt zone. It's the first thing to rise.
You look at the Atlantic belt and it is also warm, but is very small compared to the Pacific, and you see that last year rose later than the Pacific. But the Nino zone has fallen like a rock, and the Atlantic zone is taking its own sweet time. Thus my problem as Dr. Doom-Cold.
Our Polar conditions depend on the North Atlantic, and nobody has told it the heat is turned off.
Thus, I jumped the gun. When will it fire? Probably Christmas.
Anyway, I'm sunning myself today in the backyard.
This is not a strong cold blob, nor a clipper. It's just a cold air mass, moseying down the road.
Greenland is just starting to get black again.
I don't have a clue about mechanisms here.
ps. I'm just going to blame the cyclones. Note that the Great Hudson Bay Steam Turbine has started up again.
A big cold blob was sent out to Hawaii. My family visiting San Francisco had to put on every stitch of clothing for a sailing excursion. It's all very cold.
ps. the cold air is kicked by double-yolk gyres. Very unusual.
This spike should end up as wide as the other spikes. If anybody got into the physics of why these spikes all look the same, then they would get in trouble with the warmie police ticks.
Spencer uses a different method that isn't so sensitive to the ups and downs of Antarctica.
The tropics are diving, as I expect, and it follows good physics.
The world's are popping up and it is due to the Antarctic. If you weighted by heat energy, this wouldn't happen, but with their math, a degree rise is added as a degree rise.
This has zoomed tremendously, but it is going down now. The penguins were happy for the mild weather, but the world doesn't really care about what goes on down there.
Cats are bad enough with that parasite, but the standard pets have stabilized over the millennia that we have a handle on it. Farm animals are also illegal to have as pets in urban situations, although chickens are sometimes okay.
The US rightwingers are all hot on the gov't inferring with abortions, but want the nanny-state to leave squirrel-pets alone. Guns and wild animals, a perfect combination.
ps. this guy was probably making so much money off the squirrel that the Chinese hacked his account to get his location, to interfere with the election. :)
ps neat, and then we'll have 'squirrel-vid' killing everybody, and the rightwingers won't take the vaccine.
ps oh then we'll have people taking their 'comfort squirrels' on airplanes, and then they get loose and start to chew on the wires....
ps What a movie -- "Squirrels on a Plane". starring sweenies. The chewed wires stop the plane from landing, and the old lady runs out of food, the squirrels start chomping on people -- scream fest!
I use the KDE desktop with my tiny computers. When I reinstall, I always start with Debian Stable, and then I always creep up to Sid (unstable). Why? Because something always happens with KDE.
This last time, suspend stopped working. I always use it with the little computers. So, I put it up to sid. However, that is not sufficient. You cannot just clear one file to get a new KDE configuration, the files are a dog's breakfast.
So, you have erase your user space, delete the user, and make a new one. Now, it works.
The Arctic is in recharge mode, ready to fire the cold cannons. Right now, we have this weird eastern flow that has hit us all autumn. It is coming down from the Arctic, and I think it avoids the Hudson Bay steam turbine, which is shut off right now because of the warm air over the bay.
Yeah, I don't know how to embrace the carbon. Carbon dioxide is deadly, if you walk into a hole filled with it. Very cold if it is frozen. However, it makes a nice beer, which I can now get at Costco. It is making the world greener, but that probably brings biting insects.
All in all, I have no idea what the title means. I do know that they are not embracing physics. These guys wouldn't have to embrace the carbon with a little Scientific Method. But, nobody is doing that, everything is Socratic Debate, or shouting.
I haven't done this in a long time. Mainly because nothing is happening, it has been the same for a year now. The Pacific belt is churning with cold water, and the North Atlantic current is diddling.
The ice is slowly creeping into that big Greenland Inset. For the Little Ice Age, it has to totally fill in. I am expecting that, but the uncertainties of residual heat in the Atlantic, could make me look like a presidential loser.
That current has been the same for a long time. It is carrying all the heat to Spain, who recently had a stationary cyclone dump all over them. The heat in Spain does not come to the UK.
I can't conceive of the energy in this turbulent flow. Probably more than 10 times anything else.
However, that means no heat energy is being carried to the West. They will have fun trying to get a La Nina out of this.
I used to think that the Atlantic belt contributed to the Gulf Stream, but it doesn't. Right now, there is no feed to the Gulf and it makes no difference. The Gulf of Mexico doesn't have any heat energy right now, but there's lots around the Caribbean. Without more physics, I have no clue what this means.
ps for the title, the oceans are the "Apex Energizers" of the world, they don't care about anything.
ps just found this chart. It's the water temperature of the classic El Nino zone in the Pacific equatorial belt.
The red line is last year, and the very peak is 2015, just before the Big One. Neat, shows how cold we are now. The mechanism for this variation is amazing, whatever it is.
