M8.8. That M7 I talked about earlier was a foreshock, and I gave it the usual 1% chance. That is, we can have a hundred such earthquakes that I identify as a foreshock, and only one busts a move.
You can see that these zones are 'clean as a whistle' despite heavy sedimentation. That means an M9+ every 300 years. Is this a 'cleaning earthquake'? I don't know. I also don't think it will produce a heavy tsunami. We really need the 9.5 for that, something that rips the entire fault.
So, at the 1% level, I'm calling this a foreshock to an M9.5. That means the entire plate is on the move, and another M9.5 for the Alaska section. This is not worthy of a doomer story. They should just polish up the tsunami warning system. Drop in some buoys, check the escape routes, do a rehearsal, that sort of thing.
ps Crescent City got the highest tsunami at 3-4 ft. It is a natural tsunami amplifier, and would get the whole 10 yard (literally) with the m9.5
ps to toot my own horn, I really think I'm at 5% for calling foreshocks.



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