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Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Earlier earthquake was a foreshock

 


M8.8.  That M7 I talked about earlier was a foreshock, and I gave it the usual 1% chance.  That is, we can have a hundred such earthquakes that I identify as a foreshock, and only one busts a move.


You can see that these zones are 'clean as a whistle' despite heavy sedimentation.  That means an M9+ every 300 years.  Is this a 'cleaning earthquake'?  I don't know.  I also don't think it will produce a heavy tsunami.  We really need the 9.5 for that, something that rips the entire fault.

So, at the 1% level, I'm calling this a foreshock to an M9.5.  That means the entire plate is on the move, and another M9.5 for the Alaska section.  This is not worthy of a doomer story.  They should just polish up the tsunami warning system.  Drop in some buoys, check the escape routes, do a rehearsal, that sort of thing.

 ps Crescent City got the highest tsunami at 3-4 ft.  It is a natural tsunami amplifier, and would get the whole 10 yard (literally) with the m9.5


ps to toot my own horn, I really think I'm at 5% for calling foreshocks.


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