Very dull. All the indicators of yesterday have folded in on themselves, and the Arctic is in recharge.
This appears to be our default weather for the winter.
Greenland is warm, but Ellesmere Island is a bit black.
We'll let you know if there is something exciting.
ps the regular forecast has us warming up a lot. That's why natgas is down.
ps I don't see where this warmth will come from. This will be exciting for me when we have aliens dropping the heat energy.
This really puts a damper on any attempt to forecast for 7 days. You just don't know what this Arctic thing will spit out.
I'm just going to back to it every couple of hours. You can see a perfect Arctic recharge vortex, but it is suddenly taking in a huge amount of warmish air from Siberia. Everything is back-flowing into it.
The Canadian outflow has suddenly increased by a factor of 10. I'll look back at it by lunch.
Basically, the mechanism takes regional warm air and cools it down to a dense sludge, which fills up the basin, and then spills out in some direction. Still looks like its going to be Canada for a while now. The Europe gate is just too clogged up with the Gulf Stream heat.
ps OMG, dog walk was freezing! I'll have to go up another level.
ps the flow has been cut off. Something to be said about not checking too often. Back to once a day.
I can't read this one at all. It now appears to be 'leakage' and not a major event.
Now that it gets into moisture, you can see it has a very tight front.
Greenland is warm, and the Hudson Bay warm water zone is holding. It is actually a reverse lobate front, which we haven't seen this year. It all implies the event is a loser. Yukon black is the new blue.
Definitely, just a 'Spear of Destiny'.
And yet the 'Wind Cavalry' is coming to the rescue. The front is broadening according to the winds. Elsewhere, we continue to have a recharge vortex, and a warm Greenland, so we are getting ready for a major event. I hope it's Europe, much funnier that way.
ps. and they've given up on the winter forecast.
Poor people are intellectually bankrupt. Their forecast is today's weather, with Hudbay warmth still existing. Sad.
Ha, you can't rely on me for anything. Just as I thought we're good for a week, here it comes. Natgas is at the minimum right now.
You can just see it here as an A8, but it's all clear, so it is mostly invisible.
Here's where you see it. Only a 50% chance this will be big, because I really like to see a lobate front before being sure. Other than that, everything looks good. I was hoping Europe would be next.
Expect natgas to zoom way over 5.
ps the natgas storage report is diving like a brick. This is a new curve.
Same as last year, but a lot lower. It should carve right through the average, and will eventually sink to new depths.
The Arctic is just happy filling up. We have nothing going on. Although you may not feel warm, this is as good as it gets.
We have that one lunge, giving us -10C at night. However, it is not expressed in the winds. Very weird. I think this is just cold settling in, and we no longer depend on the Arctic to give us our nice freezing temperatures.
This shows Greenland at its warmest. NA is finally balancing with Siberia with a cool black shade.
The Arctic Ice Machine is just spinning away. Might be like this for a week. You can tell when it is cooked by Greenland being topped by the cold sludge air.
ps and the warmies are hoping a tiny burst of wind will resuscitate El Nino. So quaint.
Anyway, they will have their moment again and again with the stagnant summers.
ps I just discovered these charts. They are just the sea surface temps laid out as a time series.
this is the Nino zone, and you can see all the historic warm cycles. The main push of the warmies was that the cycles were over, and we would rise to infinite heat.
ps and the Yukon expects to be warm in January.
ps and you only get let out if you publish "Donald Trump deserves every piece of Peace Tin thrown at him"
ps and if all tourists are going to be officially beaten with stick, how many will show up for soccer?
35 years ago, I was a big fan on the camcorder. I recorded everything, and then when the third kid came along, I just stopped. Poor kid. Anyway, 20 years ago I dusted off the old vcr and put them on svcd. They are horrible and nobody watches them.
Now, on Linux, I have discovered Real Video Enhancer which uses local Artie to improve the video. Does a great job extracting detail, and upscaling. Runs a whole week on my Ryzen 5 mini computer.
I am so happy, that I'll do all of them, and bought a new Ryzen 7 minicomputer, at the old price before Artie insanity. I looked a long time to find someone who forgot to double the price. Hopefully, this will be faster.
This last Pacific Plume has pushed a lot of warm air over the mountains, and given Whistler lots of snow. However, we see a small lunge of cold air pushing down into the US mid-west. Lots of snow there, as well.
The Arctic is in full recharge, with no flow going anywhere. However, the 'creep of black' continues to come down to us. We'll see that the Arctic basin is full when Greenland turns white.
It's just a big swirly mess. Recharge time is always unknown. As well, the flow direction is also a probability thing.
ps the carbon business seems to on the skids. Mama, don't let your kid get into it.
ps first snow cleared 6 inches of wet lead. I have a nice gas snowblower.
Those in California can use it as a screensaver.
Now that everybody thinks that the temperatures are on the way up again, I feel it's safe to go over this stuff, once more before the end of the year.
There is no great difference from all the reports I've done this year. I only do this to record things that might be clearer in hindsight.
This is the world summary for sea surface temperatures. Note that the standard NOAA horrible plot of land surface temperatures appears to be gone from this planet. Every month, it was 'hotter than ever', and now, I guess, trumpy killed them all. No article in the past several months has used a chart.
This is the North Atlantic, and it is way down. This affects Europe and the UK.
The Gulf of Maine is the definitive thermometer of North America. I expect it to eventually scrape the bottom of the chart. The natgas people are having a big Christmas Is Warm party, and they ignore this plot.
This is the source of the NA temperature. The Pacific Belt. At one time it was amazingly alive, with endless current movements that juiced up our warmth. Now, it is a cold, dead husk.
This shows the state of the two main ocean belts that drive our weather. They are choking on cold penguin water. Up until the turnover in 2016, they got their water from the north. Makes a difference.
This video makes no sense to me, since the current seems to be detached from heat-carrying. I would need a plot of heat-energy flux. However, the Gulf Stream is alive and well, and not affected by the ice melting in Greenland at 60 below.
One day I will be able to make sense of this, but we need a full 3-d plot of the currents. Not going to happen with nooa dead, as if they would ever do anything good. I suspect that all the ocean monitoring will soon be rooted up and thrown on the compost heap.
Yesterday, I thought, for sure, the flow would be coming down on Europe. But nothing is changed. We just have everything settled in.
So, we have a settled time, and the price of natgas can go down. There's a light flow out by Alaska, and that will give BC some more rain.
ps natgas has tanked. It's all la-la, warm forever now.
ps I'm so happy I'm wrong about everything.
ps -20C default weather is creeping down without a major flow.
The Big Arctic Machine has pulled the lever, and closed the Canada spill gate.
This all changes hour to hour, and I'm watching it. We now have a full basin vortex, and a side clockwise vortex that's trying to flow to Europe. By tomorrow, I expect the Europe gate to be fully open.
Of course, I'm not predicting anything. Really, if the charmers can't do it, then I can't either. If you live in Europe, fill up a can of natgas.
This region has had its share of 'foreshocks', which means there is a 1 in 100 chance of a large M9 happening in the next few days. Most likely ripping down to fill in the gap of the last M9. That bend would always stop or start a fault rupture.
I would do another State of the Oceans, but that is really sad. I'm not showing the ocean charts.
With our stagnant summer, you remember that the north had a lot of ocean warmth. This was only skin deep. All gone now. The oceans are our great moderator. Without them we have desert conditions. Thus, we have a really warm summer, which the warmies are still going ga-ga over, but really cold winters, which they ignore.
Europe is still enjoying the remnants of the Gulf Stream. Good for them!
ps and the weather charmers are out in full force, predicting what has happened already. They are stealing my lunge and recharge pattern, but that's old hat now.
This is interesting to read. They never predicted this, but are jumping on the cold bandwagon. The implication of 'cow theory' of the non-existent Polar Vortex, is that it will get warm again. But they aren't saying that any more. As long as they can get away with facile explanations and go with the flow, we'll never get rid of them.
ps OMG, the dog walk at -11C. My one foot still aches. I upgraded all the clothes, but now I have to go for the 40 below boots, and heavy gloves.
ps and natgas is down. Forecast calls for 'rinse and repeat', and they think we are in a warm phase.
Not much going on, so this is brief, mainly because I'm bored.
You can see the 40 below stuff slowly drifting down on us. This is our stagnant default weather. No Polar Vortex cows are escaping from the pasture. Toronto looks like it is settling to -8C at night for the next little while. The same for Europe.
The leakage from the recharge is just getting sucked back into the Giant Accumulation Vortex. Despite trying to avoid it, I am starting to get glimpses on how this vortex-machine works. It's quite amazing, but the story will never be told. Suffice to say that this is now our major weather mechanism.
ps. on the regular forecast, they have given up on the retreat of the cold. The Cold Cows have escaped the Polar Vortex fence, and are here to stay.
Natgas is going to to be fun.
That was quite a blow, but the main forecast has it all retreating.
To me, it doesn't look like it.
Greenland is going white, and the continent finally has a pinch of black.
It all depends on that bit of flow coming down on us. The Arctic is in full recharge, sucking in all the warm air, and converting it to cold sludge. But will it turn off all outward flow? Don't know. The Europe flow is starting to organize, so we can expect that with the next breakout.
We expect snow for Toronto today
ps I had a hose nozzle blow up on me now, at just -6C. We are going to -14. Take in the bottled water, and any other drinks.
ps whoops, suddenly at 4:30 pm, the whole Arctic is dumping on us. Hopefully it changes tomorrow.
This is probably it, for earthquakes at this time. Maybe smaller aftershocks. For a while there were earthquakes working up the west coast, and I said it would end with an armpit earthquake. I was expecting something bigger, but it was so long ago. These things are slow.
The big M9's would be along the smooth subduction zone. This is nothing compared to them.
Prices of drives are now at 1-200 per tb with only Gen 1 chips. They are scanning the garbage piles for these. Gen 2 is all you can buy now at a premium (not Gen3). The AI boom is taking up all the memory production lines. Crucial has dropped out of the market and is only producing DDR5 ram for the Artie monsters. Expect 'Zero Day' soon, for ssd memory.
We can only hope that the whole craze explodes. The big central locations can't scale, because you have to concentrate enough power to melt the earth.
As I said before, we are getting flooded by millions of engineered fraud ssd drives. All designed to fool Windows users.
We'll soon be back to 'Spinning Rust' for our drives.
The main feed is almost gone, so this is just a moderate Arctic spill.
Greenland is building up to black.
It's all boring. Can't wait to read about 'explanations'.
ps today is the first day that there is no mention of 'Polar Vortex'. I guess that if they go with the cold sheep being confined by the vortex fence, then people would think that once they all break out, that there would be no more sheep.
Again, the poor chart guy has to rip the whole thing up. Up to 6 bucks next week, if they can unfreeze their pens.
The really good stuff is coming down.
ps the storage report has this year's stocks way below last year. Wait for next week!
Norway found them. UK denies them. Who cares about buses? If China decided to commit economic suicide by killing the stupid buses, we'd have real problems.
Now, this is a real kill switch!
ps anyway, humanoids are stupid for this. My robot Dire Wolves would wipe the floor with them.
I was looking for another ssd drive to start storing all my old dvd archives. I got a 2TB and 4 tb drive a while ago, for a reasonable cost. I thought they would be a lot cheaper now, but I found out they have more than doubled in price, probably due to memory factory lines moving to Artie stuff.
Anyway, Aliexpress had a lot of them very cheap and I bought one. Turns out they are a carefully engineered fraud for Windows. I used Linux on it, and got endless errors. I finally jammed zeros on it, with 'dd', and found out it was only 16 gb, but all designed to look like 16tb. There is nothing on the comments, and these are being sold by everybody and their dog. Even Ammie has them.
I got my full return from Ali, but this is huge. With windows, they expect people to use them up to the 16gb, and they have months to sell them. Good thing for them, nobody reads me. I also expect there might be rotten Easter eggs for windows on them. After all, in for a penny, in for a pound.
ps legit ssd prices have increased so fast, nobody really knows the price because nobody can buy them. It's like beef during covid.
We've had temperature cycles on this good old Earth for billions of years. It was the leftwingers who preached that this was all over, all due to the oil companies. Everybody should wear sackcloth and ashes, except for them
We have cycles on all levels, the long tectonic cycles that gave us the dinosaurs, medium 300 year cycles like now and the 20 year cycles like the one that ended in 2016. Right now, we can see the extremely short Arctic Pulse cycle. It breathes, and is in recharge right now.
It's giving us one more A7 blob, right down the Rocky Mountains.
Greenland is a tropical paradise, compared to a few days ago, and the Giant Accumulation Vortex has started. It's still flowing a bit down to us. So, we get a boring reset, and maybe it's Europe's turn next.
Hard to come up with new titles. The big A8 Arctic Spill has cut out the first clipper, but more air is coming over the mountains.
Unfortunately, this won't form a standard clipper because a new monster is tromping its way down.
You can just see it up there. The Alaska flow has been cut off, and we're the only flow in town.
A new Accumulation Vortex has started in the Arctic, so eventually we might get a break. But the new spill is backed by some serious flow. Any flow to Europe is mucked.
The regular forecast has stopped with the stop-flow, and shows coming down in full glory. Since they define 'polar vortex' as cold, they can say that the cold is caused by the polar vortex. No physics required. And the jet stream will always sag with the cold, because it is defined as the boundary between the cold and warmth. They have a great job!
However, the 3rd and 4th strike was part of his "Witness Suppression Program".
Since I'm on a roll, it's time to do this again, and find out why we are in a Major Ice Cycle, which I would call an Ice Age, if I weren't so fussy.
First, we are happy to announce that nooa has recovered from the trumpyspanking. We now have October, and it is still in the 'Cold Zone'. For those of you not in the loop, this is the only stable tide gauge in the world, which means that the land neither rises nor sinks. It shows every hot and cold cycle since the 30's. I just love it! The physics is 'expansion of water with temperature', and it is a perfect indicator of bulk ocean temperature. Millions may disagree, but I don't care.
The warmies used to use land peak temperatures which were contaminated by urban sprawl. Now they don't use any charts because they are all against them. They just give stories about Tiny Typhoons.
We had a very warm stagnant summer because of no ocean heat activity. This resulted in northern waters being warm, especially Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes. But also the oceans. This is all gone now. Live by the stagnant, die by the stagnant. (Stagnant winters are the worst).
For natgas demand, look at the Gulf of Maine, which reflects the temperature of the NA northeast. No heat.
The Gulf of Mexican shows how much snow Toronto will get this year. All our warmth and rain this summer came from there, since there are no Pacific Plumes wafting over us any more. So, looks like good snow, and the prairies are into their 300 Year Drought.
Finally, we have our Nino Zone which shows the RPM's of the Great Pacific Heat Engine. Turned off for now.
Please remember that I enjoy physics a bit too much. This makes me cold, arrogant, and an all-round nasty person. Do not 'believe' in me.
ps my readership is zooming up again. This mostly means the Arties, but usually they don't visit any more. I'm worse for them than bad poetry. I only get upset if the warmies use a selected bit of physics to justify their ridiculous position. But, they are so firmly entrenched into Polar Vortex Fairies that I don't think there will be a problem
