US natural gas again

 It's the time of year to make fun of US natural gas.  Apparently, the big fields are playing out, and there is a huge market for shipping natgas out.

This is starting to spike the price in the off-hours.  

The storage is less than last year, probably due to the running price.  Why store when you can load it on a ship?  They didn't learn anything from last year, when they were within days (whatever) of running out of natgas.  Problem it, you can see that storage went very low last year, but you don't know where the 'panic point' is.  That's when the spot price goes through the roof.

In other years, the price has spiked at this time of year because of worries they will run out of gas.  This year it is all calm and smiles.

My hypothesis is that it will be colder than last year, and the US will get closer to 'Ground Zero Gas'.  We are missing tons of information, so nothing can be measured in advance.  Yet another case where the lack of physics will bite them on the glutes.  In Canada, we've always prepared for the cold of yesteryear, so we are fine.