Arctic M5 spill starting

 They always start like this.  We have had days of Arctic recharge where the tip bucket or headpond is filling.  A breakout has the mechanics the same as overtopping an earthen dam.  The first cold air starts and it carves a channel.  Not into the solid rock, but as chilled earth.  This allows less turbulence in the flow.  The best Arctic air blocks are the ocean plumes, and they act as high dams for the fluid cold air.

We've got a bit of flow starting.

You see this in the Alaska image and in the general temperature map.

We rate the flows on calculated power.  Total energy is associated with this because that depends on the volume of the cold air.  I rate from M5 to M9.  This is an M5 because the front is poorly defined, and the spill width is narrow.  An M9 has a perfectly smooth lobate front, very wide and lots behind it.  The absolute temperature isn't that important, but the temp difference is.  We are going to get very cold this winter and an M9 will bring 30 below to Toronto.  or not.  An M9 chills the toes of Florida.

ps it's no use complaining about stupidity, because the stupidest people (guard) also complain.

ps. wow, this spill is really blowing up in real time.

ps.  can't wait to see it in the morning.  

Niagara Falls