Friday, September 21, 2018

Some UK forecasters starting to get on board


Fine, just when the Guardian isn't running any more 'commentable' global warming articles.  I wanted to gloat, but I'll be freezing as well. 

I was going to say to them that last year's Beast from the East will seem like a picnic.  There is not a speck of heat left in the Atlantic.  That hurricane was the last, and it made so much press as 'caused by carbon'.  Ship in the ice salt!


Thursday, September 20, 2018

Request for Apple Heating contact info

OMG, these people won't give me their fax number or courier address under my name, because I've been after them.  They are shutting me out from legal recourse.


Link only to a post office box

It is suggested in the formal documentation to use social media to get their contact information.  Calling all apprentice hackers.  Could you use your Social Engineering skills to get their fax number and courier address?  You'll have to tell them that you want to send a birthday cake.  Or be the City and tell them you are faxing a tax overcharge.

First note:  Boiler plate on the consumer act.

Ministry of Government and Consumer Services Consumer Protection Branch 77 Wellesley Street West PO Box 450 Toronto, ON M7A 2J6
T
elephone: 416-326-8800 Facsimile: 416-326-8665
Consumer Complaint
You are receiving this notice because a customer has a complaint about your business and believes you have contravened the Consumer Protection Act, 2002.
At this time, the Ministry of Consumer Services has not initiated a formal investigation into the complaint.
The ministry’s Consumer Protection Branch administers and enforces a number of consumer protection laws to ensure that businesses act fairly and ethically.
Our policy is that consumers who have a complaint should first seek to resolve the problem by writing to the business. A letter from your customer is attached.
• Next steps:
Our aim is to ensure that consumers and businesses have information about their rights and obligations that is clear and easy to understand. Please take a moment to consider the details of the letter. You may also wish to review your obligations under the Consumer Protection Act. Your efforts to resolve the matter may avoid the need for us to become involved.
If you have not responded to the consumer, addressing the concerns in their attached letter within three weeks, the consumer may file a formal complaint about your business. If the issue falls under the Consumer Protection Act, the ministry may help mediate a solution. If we are unable to do so or your business is found to be in breach of the act, we may take enforcement action against you or your business.
• Penalties and other options:
Where an investigation finds a violation of the law, charges may be laid. Successful prosecution may result in fines of up to $50,000 for an individual or imprisonment for not more than two years less a day, or both. A company may be liable to a fine of up to $250,000.
The act requires the ministry to post information about businesses that fail to respond to consumer complaints; actions it has taken against a business; and charges laid and convictions. This information is available to the public on Ontario’s Consumer Beware List at ontario.ca/consumerbeware. Where information relating to a charge is posted on the public record, the business is not guilty of an offence unless a court of law has so determined.
You are welcome to contact our office, toll free at 1-800-889-9768 or at (416) 326-8800 for more information about the Consumer Protection Act and your responsibility to consumers.


My letter:

Harold Asmis
xxxx

Sept. 19, 2018

Apple Heating and Air Conditioning
P.O BOX 286
Station A
Toronto, ON
M6J 3P4
416-291-1655

Dear Sir:

In the fall of 2016 I purchased a full central air conditioning system from your company.  Your staff came in person to install it, and it worked correctly at the time.

It was not used again in 2016, but in 2017 it had many problems.  I paid for annual service, and the fluid was topped up an unknown amount.  It was freezing the coils, and I had several service calls.  However, 2017 was a very cold summer and it got little use.  I did not know what was wrong at the time.

For the start of the 2018 season, the system refused to work at all.  The compressor made a grating sound, and there was no cooling.  A service man came and said he would have to call a supervisor.  The supervisor came and said there was no fluid in the system.  He spent many hours trying to identify the leak, whether it was in the compressor or the evaporator.  He could not identify the leaks, but ended up replacing the Shrader valves, just in case.

The 2018 season was very hot, and by August the unit started to freeze at 74 deg F.  I now knew that H410a cannot freeze if it is at full pressure.  By the middle of September the unit was freezing at any temperature, thus indicating it was once again out of fluid.

Since the unit leaks 4 pounds of fluid a season, I am expecting a full replacement of the entire system.  It is an environmental hazard, since h410a contributes to global warming.

I look forward to your immediate reply.  You can contact me at 1234 or email at xxx.

Yours truly,




Harold Asmis, P. Eng. (ret)

ps.  On Monday, I'll go back to the gov't and say they have no real presence.  

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Starting a consumer complaint

I got this response to my request about an air conditioner lemon, and I'll do it.  It will go into my book.

Dear Harold Asmis,

Thank you for writing to Consumer Protection Ontario at the Ministry of Government and Consumer Services.

We recommend writing a complaint letter to the business in question and sending your letter by email or by registered mail so that you have a record of when you sent it.


You can also include a notification of consumer complaint (PDF) with your complaint letter. This notification tells the business that you have started the complaint process and explains the consequences of ignoring a complaint that may fall under the Consumer Protection Act.

When you write your complaint letter:
·       Type it or make sure your handwriting is neat and easy to read
·       Explain what happened
·       Be specific about how you want to resolve the problem. For example, request for a refund, return, etc.
·       Specify the date by which you want a response (3 weeks is reasonable)
·       Keep it short and to the point
·       Be firm but polite
·       Include copies (not originals) of receipts, invoices, contracts, or other relevant documents
·       Include your signature and date
·       Keep a copy of the letter
·       Keep a record of its delivery. For example, send it by registered mail, fax or email

If a letter to the business does not resolve your issue, file a complaint with us by choosing one of the following:
·      Print and complete our complaint form (PDF), and send it by mail, email or fax to:
Ministry of Government and Consumer Services
Consumer Protection Branch
Consumer Services, Analytics and Partnerships Branch
Box 450

Please call us at 416-326-8800 or toll-free at 1-800-889-9768 if you have any questions. If we do not hear from you, we will assume that your issue has been resolved.

Thank you for bringing your concerns to our attention.

Ministry of Government and Consumer Services    
Consumer Services Operations Division
PO Box 450
Toronto ON M7A 2J6

Telephone:    416-326-8800
Toll free:         1-800-889-9768
TTY:                416-229-6086          
TTY toll free:  1-877-666-6545
Fax:                416-326-8665

Email:             consumer@ontario.ca
Website:         ontario.ca/consumer

Accessible formats and communication supports are available upon request.


ps.  I've stopped the book until I go through this.

Public Action -- Get L'aide


Chapter 4 - Public Action

It is now clear that the next time you buy central air, you have a chance of being saddled with a lemon, as much chance as buying a Pinto in the 70's.  After the phoney warranty runs out, you have to pay for a complete replacement.

Facebook Anger

Everybody could get really upset and send death threats.  That worked for trumpypants, but I don't like it.

Apprentices


These are supposedly the big guys.  They seem to be going towards code for brazing, but that's not enough.  When you are feeling good on Cannabis Day, give them a note and say: "I wouldn't want to be  part of the Stone Age.  I'd rather learn Cobol and work on mainframes.'

Really, it's Depression City to enter their world.  My guy who worked a long time on my unit was depressed.  He was extra upset that they wouldn't just replace the whole thing.

Let them pick from a lower pool, like the Nuclear industry has to.  The pool where the best get to be United baggage handlers. 


Send Emails

No use.  All these guys have notes on their websites, created by the PR department:  "Send us an email and we'll have our abused female secretaries print it out, stuffed into our full inboxes, and we'll respond within a year or two"


-to be continued

Appendix

Air conditioning cartel in Toronto

Lemon-aide for Air Conditioning, or 'Get l'aide'

Get L'aide, a new book trashing the air conditioning industry


Air Conditioning missed the boat -- Get L'aide


UK being hit by powerful Atlantic streamers



This is the most powerful I've ever seen.  Driven by the leftovers of Hurricane Florence, the British have made up their own cute name for it, just to be different.  In Toronto, we are on the cold side of the streamer.  The huge difference in temps is the energy driver.


Air Conditioning missed the boat -- Get L'aide


Chapter 3 - Plumbing quality

There is no lower form of quality control than plumbing, one must consider it to be no quality at all.  No competition and it doesn't kill anybody.  Also, a leak is easily detected and fixed.  But this what the air conditioning industry used in the 60's, and has stuck to it ever since.  Freon was easy to work with and only went to 100 psi, the limits of plumbing.

This is different from industrial refrigeration, which uses ammonia.  People get killed with this all the time, but it lacks the cachet of a boiler explosion.  When you read about it, you say "Another industrial accident, like runaway forklifts.  Ho hum".  Their quality control might be a notch above the home industry, but I doubt it, there's no great driver.

However, into this nice world, enters Nasa.  Ozone holes have been here for billions of years, but the satellites just discovered them.  Quel horreur!  We were all going to die.  They quickly cobbled up a mechanism and Freon was guilty.  No need to actually test the hypothesis, that just wasn't done any more. 

Now we use h410a as a refrigerant.  It works at 400 psi, yet the industry uses the same materials and equipment from the 60's.  Ever look at their pressure gauges?  They have a dang apprentice system for the installers.  This is bound to be 'not good'.

This is exactly like Old Detroit in the 70's.  Then, they discovered that 'no quality' didn't work when you increased component stress by 4 times, and it doesn't work for plumbing.  We are back to having lemons, and there is nothing you can do, because there is no completion.

The upshot is that the odds of being saddled with a lemon has gone from one 10,000 to one in a thousand or a hundred.  Just like Old Detroit without all headlines.

- to be continued

Appendix

Air conditioning cartel in Toronto

Lemon-aide for Air Conditioning, or 'Get l'aide'

Get L'aide, a new book trashing the air conditioning industry





Tuesday, September 18, 2018

The tedium of quality - Get L'aide


Chapter 2 - The tedium of quality

Demming formed a system of immense tediousness.  If your boss ever tells you you're going into Quality Control, run away screaming.  By charting everything, the goal was to get every input consistent, and the entire jitter several times below a problem.  When the excursions happened, it wouldn't matter.

The Japanese mastered this, but made no inroads with Old Detroit.  Then we had the 70's oil shock and a massive depression.  OD could no longer sell rolling boats.  They went for smaller, lighter cars.  No hope there, the cars were terrible, since they used the old standards of bashing steel and hoping for the best.

The quality was so bad, it gave rise to the term 'Lemon', which I am now appropriating for central air conditioners.  This was a car where the quality was zero.  It was probably a one in a thousand thing, and od didn't care.  The warranties were terrible.  Eventually you were saddled with a horrible car, and it was your loss.

Toyota came on the scene and wiped the floor with OD.  They still haven't recovered.  Nobody wanted to be stuck with a lemon, and you didn't get one with the Japanese.  Guarantees become all encompassing.  Nobody was ever stuck with a lemon.

But that whole thing gave rise to some great books.  I read them all.  The authors could get some great quotes.  That won't happen any more since everybody has a PR department.  I intend to just write funny letters and not even send them.

-to be continued

Appendix

Air conditioning cartel in Toronto

Lemon-aide for Air Conditioning, or 'Get l'aide'

Get L'aide, a new book trashing the air conditioning industry


Get L'aide, a new book trashing the air conditioning industry



The previous articles are laid out in the appendix.

Chapter 1 -- A history of quality, which the air conditioning industry missed

The 60's was an era of hippies and poor quality.  Planes fell out of the sky, boilers exploded, and elevators dropped.

Aircraft - The first serious effort at quality was with aircraft parts and assemblies.  At that time, the Toronto airport was a puddle, and TWA ruled the skies with two planes.  The chance of a 'lemon' airplane (falling out of the sky) was one in a thousand per year.  The industry realized that if they were to expand to thousands of jets, then they would be getting one major air disaster per year (or per day).  But then, nobody would fly.  So, they had to up their game.

This involved a huge effort with engineers and very smart people.  Everything was done, from the sourcing of the metal to maintenance and overhaul.  Today, there is nothing like the quality control of aircraft parts, and prices to match.

Boilers and elevators followed the aircraft industry.

Cars -- Old Detroit built cars like tanks, with the material stressed at 1% of capacity.  No need for quality, but the Japanese had a problem  Their stuff was regarded as shit, and they could never sell cars.  They called in Demming, the quality expert, and he became their god.  He knew a simple trick -- that quality issues were a binomial distribution with many inputs.

That distribution ensured that there was a 'jitter' to quality, such as the fit of a door.  So, if you were plotting door gap, there would be a long history of a jitter.  But binomial distribution ensured that you would expect an excursion of 3 times the jitter.  That's when the door wouldn't fit, and the assemblers would bang it in with a hammer.

-to be continued


Appendix

Air conditioning cartel in Toronto


Lemon-aide for Air Conditioning, or 'Get l'aide'


Lemon-aide for Air Conditioning, or 'Get l'aide'

I am a proud owner of a central air lemon.  As such, I can relive the 70's with a series of books trashing the entire industry, from manufacturing to installation.

But first, a bit of history.  We'll start with the 60's because the air conditioning industry is stuck in that era, when they invented Freon.  An appendix is included, citing all my articles.  Nobody writes books any more, there's no money in it.

I'm leaving this as an opening shot, since there is still a chance that somebody reads things, and I have started a whole series of ridiculous interactions for the blogs.

Appendix

Air conditioning cartel in Toronto

-to be continued

Title and cover of Book

GET L'AIDE



When life hands you a bowl of lemons -- Get l'aide!

ps.  next year I'll rip the whole system out.  This whole series gets me ready for 'fundme' or it will just worth all the fun.

The Ice Age is Upon Us


The funny thing is that hope springs eternal.


Every speck of warmth for the West has to come from the Pacific.  Toronto gets bursts of Gulf heat.  There is no heat any more in the Northern Hemisphere, except in the Gulf.  After the hurricane, I am astounded at how much the ocean temperatures have dropped.


Prepare for winter.

Monday, September 17, 2018

Air conditioning cartel in Toronto

This is a sad story of paying for a new air conditioner and getting a lemon.  The installer was Apple Plus.


I loved these guys.  They installed my furnace, and I've always done maintenance with them.  When the old air conditioner went, there was no question who would install a new one.

First, a note on the air conditioning mess, brought on by nasa.  We had a very nice fluid called Freon.  It compressed at 100 psi, and opened at about 50.  But someone conjured a chemical reaction up in the thin air, and said Freon caused ozone holes.  When it was checked whether this reaction could take place near an ozone hole, nasa shut it down.  The reaction was impossible.

Enter the new fluids.  H410A.  This stuff condensed at 400 psi, and opened at 100 psi.  4 times the previous level.

The air conditioner installers have the license to install, but do they have any responsibilities?  This is what I intend to find out.  Can they install a leaky air conditioner and walk away?

Anyway, they went up to 400 psi with the exact same quality control as 100.  There was bound to be flaws in the brazing, but they do it the same old way.

I've started with Consumer Protection, and then I will go to licensing.  Should be a fun story.  Give those guys a call, if you want to.  ?)

In the meantime when you need a new h410a air conditioner, get a guarantee against flaws in workmanship.  The manufacturers carry nothing, and leave it all to the installer.  No wonder they are grumpy.

ps. They have an association and I left a message.



This is all 'very old economy' and they don't read emails.  This is going to be quite a battle. 


Saturday, September 15, 2018

Toronto housing sales chart just stutters


It's funny how this chart has been out a while, but I kept thinking it was last month's chart.  That's because nothing is happening.  Nobody's buying and listings are being withdrawn.  The houses that are selling have been priced at crash levels.  I wonder what has to happen on the charts to declare that there is a crash.  Perhaps the crash has to be over, and things picking up again.

Tight vortex at the North Pole



I love to see these.  As temperatures plunge to the 1970's we will see the return of the ozone holes.  nasa probably won't report them.  If they did, then we would see another nasa-ism collapse, that the holes are caused by chlorine.  They just assumed a chemical reaction could take place in the extreme cold and low pressure of the vortex.  When their lab reported the opposite, it was shut down.

I've noticed that the Carbon Cult has gone nuts in blaming Florence on warming.  I've seen their long plots of past hurricane energy.  They are making the same mistakes of the 'Earthquakes are getting worse' people.  Oh well, they are having fun.  Live and let live. 


Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Hurricane Florence follows vestigial Gulf Stream


We have a strong prong of hot water and the hurricane is going right up it.  It is interesting physics how a hot water current can steer a storm, hurricane, or warm plume.  The Gulf Stream still shows on the current map, but the heat is in this prong.  The UK will soon feel the cold side of this, the GS moderated temperatures both high and low.


This is the current map, and it drives me nuts how the heat isn't tracking the flow.  Last year, they were coincident, and the storms and plumes would follow it.

ps.  It's very weird that the hurricane has dropped down 2 levels.  Must be colder water.

pps.  hurricane didn't even bump up at the GS.  Tends to confirm my thought there is no more heat energy there.

Monday, September 10, 2018

Toronto house site gets away with geotechnical murder

A very aggressive builder has decided to build a monster house on a lot near us.  Not a mere ugly house, they wanted a Russian Billionaire house with a full tennis court in the basement.  As you know, RB's are going down deep in London, to bypass height restrictions.  For this house, there is notorious sand lens that produces quicksand if you dig.

A geotechnical note on quicksand.  It's not like in the Tarzan movies.  It's merely a result of a high upward water-flow gradient that lifts the sand grains.  However, it is denser than water so you just float on it.  If you drop a hunk of steel on it, it will sink.

So these guys started digging the basement in the normal way.  They got away with digging right to the property edge.  After 4 feet, everything started to collapse, and the neighbours' trees all tilted.  Basements cracked.  Then they went for soldier piles and sheet lagging, what you see in the big buildings downtown.

Naturally, they only did this for the really bad sections.  The rest was allowed to cave in.  Then they hit the quicksand.  They pumped out a ton of water, laden with silt into the storm sewers.  You can't pump out quicksand.  They got away with that, because the City is working on real murders.  Amazing, because you can't do a speck of construction near the Humber River without tons of ridiculous silt barriers.

So, the Toronto building inspectors and politicians are asleep or their hands are tied.  The Toronto Conservation Authority probably doesn't know.

Even if they handled the quicksand, the sump pumps would pour out tons of water into the sewers.

Very laughable to geotech engineers is that they attempted to pour footings on the quicksand.  The concrete just dissolved into a big puddle, adding caustic concrete water to the environment.  Is somebody not feeling the pain?  Does that stop them?


No, they have assembled super-high forms for the tennis-court basement.  They just tacked them over the quicksand with no footings.  The building inspectors are aware of this engineering violation and are sitting in their holes.  Now, it has rained a ton, and the water will be 3 feet in this swamp.  They'll drain the silt into the river again.  I can't wait until they pump in the concrete.  Three trucks later, they'll wonder where the concrete has gone.  Into the danged river!  Poor fish.

This is a real environmental disaster, as opposed to the other things that the loony left likes to push, like plastic straws and palm oil.  Wake up and smell the silt!  

ps.  please excuse the vagueness.  This guy has high connections and would sue anybody who looked at him sideways.  :)

pps.  This is a work of fiction.

more: hurricane coming in.

add:  Yeah, they're pumping today, a nice liquid mix.  The concrete will dive deep into the quicksand and stabilize with a free-form caisson.  Done all the time.  No corruption here.  The water was magically pumped out overnight.  The show is over.

OMG!  They poured the walls and they didn't bloop.  Of course they settled 6 inches while setting, but they just plastered some concrete on top, and all's good in fordland!

Toronto Housing Crash Hits Bottom at 25%

The joke is that it might not be the bottom.  The abandoned mouldy house up the road sold for 850K, down from a million at the peak.  It was a 'must sell', and the developer was brave.  The chart I usually show is very late, and won't tell much.

We know that 25% of houses for sale are vacant, as people move to their new condos.  They are pricing them at the peak -- good luck with that.

If the knees are chopped out of the market, how long can condo prices hold?  The selling price at the bottom of a crash is determined by 'must sells'.  We'll be seeing this with condos soon.  Right now the condo prices have gone up so much that people can wait to sell their house.  Soon, people will realize that the house won't sell, and may try to sell the condo.  Then prices will crash.

A long time ago I predicted this when the Chinese hot money stopped.  I think I've been surprised at how long people could hold on.  If nafta settles then interest rates will zoom, which shakes the tree.  Somehow, I think that 25% is not the bottom.

ps.  deliberate math error here.  But this lot would have been well over a million because of no height restrictions.

Sunday, September 9, 2018

Pearl string of hurricanes coming in

Okay, so I said there wouldn't be any hurricanes this year, but here they come.


Problem is that they are going over cold water.  If they get into the Gulf or follow that prong of hot water, then they can get up to something.


If they miss that little bit of hot water, then nothing.

ps.  they are running down the hot water, a phenomenon that has been seen before.  I am astounded.

Saturday, September 8, 2018

A glimpse of our coming winter


This is our picture for our Siberian winter.  The cold air will fight the Atlantic warmth, and Toronto is on the border.  The UK has no hope.  The tabloids are already predicting snowmageddon for Britain, and I'm curious as to how the carbon cult will explain it. 


Thursday, September 6, 2018

Linux - Kernel 4.18.6 and still no amdgpu

I keep trying the 4.19 series and all the new 4.18, and they all freeze on boot.  4.17 is working better, with less freezes.  This is a long time, even for Linux.

ps. 4.18.7 no good.  And amdgpu.dc=0 doesn't work and screws up 4.17.  Linus is on vacation.

Global temperatures are chaotic and fractal

Reference



This is funny, because if the temps are chaotic and self-similar, then you can never separate out the human-caused component, if any.  That's because the temps act as earthquakes, so you get m3's and m9's.  Both long and short cycles.  There is no signal over this noise.

We're just coming off a long cycle of 20 years.  Yet, on top of that is the 300 year cycle.  The authors don't dare go into the massive implications. 

So, from the signal alone, as with earthquakes, you can't tell what is going on.  You have to get into the mechanism, and do separate measurements.  This is how you can tell with the Oklahoma earthquakes that they are induced.

All the measurements to tell if the temperatures are induced can be done, but nobody does them since they go against the cult.  The only way to bust the carbon-cult is to have a massive drop in global temps, which is what is happening now. 


Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Monthly Charts Confirm the UK is Going to FREEZE!

Anything to do with the UK and I have to capitalize.  But this is for all of us in the N. Hemisphere.  The monthly data is out and it confirms that global temps are dropping.


We had a micro-El Nino and it fizzled like I said it would.  Problem is that they have a local ENSO index, but it's like measuring earthquake magnitude using local felt effects.  The English Majors don't get it.  Maybe nobody gets it.  But it caused a little bump last month.  The previous bump was caused by the massive hurricanes last year.  None of those now.

As usual, I have magnified the last bit.


That bump scared me, but we are now on-track for a micro ice age of 20 years.  Could continue to drop to a mini ice age, but I don't know what the signs are for that.  I'm using ocean currents and global heat flow for all this, not just looking at wiggles.

Our Arctic ice volume is also on track.

You can see the red line that terminates.  This is average ice thickness, over the given area, and is related to volume.  It's starting to cross lanes again.

The English Major Warmies had an article out this summer saying that erratic weather was due to the Arctic melting.  I call bull-sheet on that one! 

Finally, we can see our summer coming to an end.  Strong Arctic air is blowing away our warmth, and the UK is getting the full blast for now.  They are going to have a Siberian winter this year, that makes last year look like a picnic.  In Toronto, we either go Winnipeg, or Buffalo, depending on the Gulf air.

More finally, we have the ocean surface temps.  The Gulf stream used to have a very strong signal in this map, but it's gone now.  You can still see the current, though, but it isn't doing anything.



For the UK, the headline is.

GULF STREAM DEAD!  SIBERIAN WINTER LOOMS!



Monday, September 3, 2018

Cottage Report - No labour on Labour Day


Very hot, but the water is cold.  We can't work, but I'm not complaining.  No fishing either.  All summer we had ideal conditions of weak northern winds, and warm air from the Gulf.  Should end soon, like it has for the UK.  I found the old posts showing when all the ocean currents 'worked'.  Now, there is nothing.


Sunday, September 2, 2018

The UK is now in for Labrador weather

I love the UK tabloids. The place is always in for something HORRENDOUS.  You can now see that the warm Atlantic air is not lifting much for the UK.  They will be getting Arctic air from now on.


They had a record hot summer because of stagnant air.  All the northern latitudes get this.  Normally, sea breezes from the Gulf Stream would moderate the weather for the UK.  Not any more.  Some of the warmies are preparing for this with their usual 'Global warming causes cooling' stories.  I hope the UK stocks up on ice salt.

We are enjoying stories that carbon warming is causing volatility in the weather.  That's really stretching things, since the 'greenhouse' is supposed to be uniform.  This is fun, but the stories can only end when global temps fall sufficiently.  Because there is no  physics, the drop has to be HORRENDOUS.

ps,  Here's when the GS worked. 2015

in 2015  the north pacific current worked